NHC predicting direct hit on Mobile?

[shaner]

Wow. Not that any town would do well with a direct hit from Dennis, but wouldn't Mobile be the worst possible scenario at this point? From everything I've read, Moblie Bay would channel the storm surge making it much more intense and of course worse.

[rtd2]

Wow. Not that any town would do well with a direct hit from Dennis, but wouldn't Mobile be the worst possible scenario at this point? From everything I've read, Moblie Bay would channel the storm surge making it much more intense and of course worse.

Knew this shift was comming! Dereck has been On top of this ALL day ...Calling MOBILE!

[dhweather]

I still wouldn't be surprised for a MS/AL line strike, or even Pascagoula.

[mtm4319]

The NHC has it going in just east of the bay.

[BamaMan]

This would be one of the worst case scenarios other than hitting just to the west of us as Frederic did. High tide is tomorrow afternoon, and I live about 10 miles west of the west side of Mobile Bay. Dauphin Island and all of Southern Mobile County will be devastated, not to mention the rest of the city. the storm surge will be most likely the worst ever here.

[Guest]

Dr. Bill Williams latest model forecast a Mouth of Mobile Bay hit moving NW accross Port Of Alabama, onward to Grandbay, Wilmer....etc. Doesnt look good. Position of eye staying west of downtown Mobile.

[knotimpaired]

My husband and I considered Dauphine Island as a retirement area but after touring it with a realtor and hearing about how "this was built for hurricane safety and that was built for hurricane safety" (mind you all were on 30' stilts) we just decided to go for the gusto and move to the Carib.

I think Dauphine will get a direct hit.

For those that have not been in the Mobile Bay area and surrounding miles we are talking below sea level and this is an area that will need our prayers and help.

[sprink52]

If Dennis gos in at high tide into Mobile Bay, all of downtown, the state docks and communities on both sides of the bay will be destroyed. Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Al and Perdito Key, Fl will catch hell as will Pensacola. I guess the old Floribama Club on the state line at Perdito will go again.

[Radar]

It looks as though Dr Williams is dead on with his forecast. Unfortunately the MS Gulf Coast is ill prepared. Our Civil Defense has been slack and did not order any mandatory evacs until this afternoon... I know some friends who live in manufactored housing that havent even left yet because the local news stations were reporting only 40mph winds for Sunday... This is a severe disaster in the making... If the track goes any further West it is doom and gloom. If you think a Mobile hit is bad, the MS Gulf Coast hit would be pure terror!

[rockyman]

I think I'm the only Dauphin Islander on this board...I live there full time with my wife and 2 dogs...when we evacuated last year for Ivan, we said goodbye to our little shack with tears...but when we returned, she was still standing! So we added a metal roof, vinyl siding, and a new deck...to lose the house THIS TIME is like a kick in the gut...This house survived Freddie, Elena, Georges, and Ivan...maybe it has one more 'cane left in it....by the way, we're 2 blocks east of the Little Red Schoolhouse...on the "widest part" of the West End.

[knotimpaired]

For those who do not know Mobile Bay is massive.

Miles wide and very shallow water. I am sorry for the sailors that have been trying to outrun the storm to get to Mobile Bay before the storm hits. Nobody expected this so soon and we will hear stories from the Coast Guard I am sure.

[mtm4319]

I think I'm the only Dauphin Islander on this board...I live there full time with my wife and 2 dogs...when we evacuated last year for Ivan, we said goodbye to our little shack with tears...but when we returned, she was still standing! So we added a metal roof, vinyl siding, and a new deck...to lose the house THIS TIME is like a kick in the gut...This house survived Freddie, Elena, Georges, and Ivan...maybe it has one more 'cane left in it....by the way, we're 2 blocks east of the Little Red Schoolhouse...on the "widest part" of the West End.

You're still there?

Hope you're ready for category 3 plus winds.

[Brent]

If it goes in west of Mobile... it will be destroyed. I've been there many times and it can't handle a 13-18 foot storm surge like is expected. East of Mobile they get lucky but Pensacola gets it.

[Brent]

I think I'm the only Dauphin Islander on this board...I live there full time with my wife and 2 dogs...when we evacuated last year for Ivan, we said goodbye to our little shack with tears...but when we returned, she was still standing! So we added a metal roof, vinyl siding, and a new deck...to lose the house THIS TIME is like a kick in the gut...This house survived Freddie, Elena, Georges, and Ivan...maybe it has one more 'cane left in it....by the way, we're 2 blocks east of the Little Red Schoolhouse...on the "widest part" of the West End.

I wish you a lot of luck... I don't think this is Ivan. I see it going over or even west of you as a Cat 4... Ivan was a 120 mph Cat 3.

[dhweather]

It looks as though Dr Williams is dead on with his forecast. Unfortunately the MS Gulf Coast is ill prepared. Our Civil Defense has been slack and did not order any mandatory evacs until this afternoon... I know some friends who live in manufactored housing that havent even left yet because the local news stations were reporting only 40mph winds for Sunday... This is a severe disaster in the making... If the track goes any further West it is doom and gloom. If you think a Mobile hit is bad, the MS Gulf Coast hit would be pure terror!

Yep, if Dennis jogs West into Mississippi for landfall, most are basically caught with their pants down.

Some say Governeor Riley and the Alabama EOC over-reacted,
well Governor Barbour and the Mississippi EOC have under-reacted.

[rockyman]

No...I'm sorry...I didn't mean to scare anyone...We're in Montgomery...and I have HIGH SPEED WIRELESS INTERNET!! It's hot as an inferno in the room, and the bugs are so large they are scaring my golden retrievers, but to have wi-fi is like heaven!

We left this morning at 7am and arrived around 1pm (the last 5 miles at Montgomery took about an hour).

I do know of ALOT of people who stayed on the Island this time...Here is the Dauphin Island bulletin board website with posts from the "front line" (you'll have to register to see the posts)

http://www.hwforums.com/2144

[sprink52]

I wish Riley would over react and re-write the building code.

[Brent]

No...I'm sorry...I didn't mean to scare anyone...We're in Montgomery...and I have HIGH SPEED WIRELESS INTERNET!! It's hot as an inferno in the room, and the bugs are so large they are scaring my golden retrievers, but to have wi-fi is like heaven!

We left this morning at 7am and arrived around 1pm (the last 5 miles at Montgomery took about an hour).

I do know of ALOT of people who stayed on the Island this time...Here is the Dauphin Island bulletin board website with posts from the "front line" (you'll have to register to see the posts)

http://www.hwforums.com/2144

Oh... OK, I was like "is he INSANE?"


Looks like the storm is going to follow you up to Montgomery. Expecting hurricane force gusts possibly and lots and lots and lots and lots of rain(did I mention lots?) I'm about 75 miles east of there...

[knotimpaired]

Rockyman,

You are not alone. My previous posts have said that. My hubby and I spent a few days there a few years ago with a realtor considering moving there. Everything said hurricane alley so we did move to the Carib to be in the heart of it. Actually our island is so tiny that we will probably never get hit (although Hugo flattened 80% of the homes here)

Dauphin Island is beautiful but unfortunately when asked on the thread where Dennis will have his landfall, I choose Dauphine.

Sorry kiddo.

If you loose you home or need a break in cleanup PM me and you and your family can come stay with us anytime (considering we may have once been neighbors).

[PerfectStorm]

I am a former Dauphin Island Derelict at the Sea Lab - was there from 92-95 then back in 98 teaching. I remember the old Tully's Bar before it became Neptunes and The Galley and the other one just down the road. Fishing on the Pier. Sneaking up to the new tower at the Estuarium, and other misadventures... Had to evac for Erin, Opal in 95. Also used to cruise the beaches on a 4 wheeler looking for sea turtle nests. I miss that old island immensely. Living in Tampa now, we are taking just a minor lashing. I sincerely hope Dennis will have some mercy on DI. I would like to take my fiance(wife) and future family there one day to show them were there Dad became a scientist! Best of luck to you, dude!

Jason
Tampa