Recon Reports

#201 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:40 pm

Note the dewpoint was higher than the actual temperature (impossible...well there is supersaturation...hmm) in the eyewall. :roll:

Have a nice warm eye there at 10,000 ft!

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #202 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:42 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 15
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 37
Ob #01 Location: 155 mi SW of Tampa, Florida
Ob #01: Time: 03:30:30Z; Lat: 26.7°N Long: 85.4°W; PA: 9977 ft; D-Value: -417 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 38 mph; Temp: 62°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #02: Time: 03:31:00Z; Lat: 26.7°N Long: 85.5°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: -369 ft; Wind: NW (308°) @ 90 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 49°F
Ob #03: Time: 03:31:30Z; Lat: 26.7°N Long: 85.5°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -287 ft; Wind: NW (308°) @ 113 mph; Temp: 60°F; Dewpt: 50°F
Ob #04: Time: 03:32:00Z; Lat: 26.7°N Long: 85.5°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -223 ft; Wind: NW (308°) @ 105 mph; Temp: 57°F; Dewpt: 49°F
Ob #05: Time: 03:32:30Z; Lat: 26.6°N Long: 85.5°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -175 ft; Wind: NW (307°) @ 92 mph; Temp: 56°F; Dewpt: 46°F
Ob #06: Time: 03:33:00Z; Lat: 26.6°N Long: 85.5°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: -141 ft; Wind: NW (309°) @ 82 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 45°F
Ob #07: Time: 03:33:30Z; Lat: 26.6°N Long: 85.6°W; PA: 10013 ft; D-Value: -115 ft; Wind: NW (308°) @ 71 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 44°F
Ob #08: Time: 03:34:00Z; Lat: 26.6°N Long: 85.6°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -102 ft; Wind: NW (307°) @ 66 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 43°F
Ob #09: Time: 03:34:30Z; Lat: 26.6°N Long: 85.6°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -83 ft; Wind: NW (304°) @ 58 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #10: Time: 03:35:00Z; Lat: 26.5°N Long: 85.6°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -72 ft; Wind: WNW (302°) @ 52 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #11: Time: 03:35:30Z; Lat: 26.5°N Long: 85.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -64 ft; Wind: NW (304°) @ 52 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #12: Time: 03:36:00Z; Lat: 26.5°N Long: 85.7°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: -56 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 51 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #13: Time: 03:36:30Z; Lat: 26.5°N Long: 85.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -49 ft; Wind: WNW (303°) @ 46 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #14: Time: 03:37:00Z; Lat: 26.5°N Long: 85.7°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -43 ft; Wind: WNW (303°) @ 46 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #15: Time: 03:37:30Z; Lat: 26.4°N Long: 85.7°W; PA: 10020 ft; D-Value: -36 ft; Wind: WNW (303°) @ 45 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #16: Time: 03:38:00Z; Lat: 26.4°N Long: 85.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -30 ft; Wind: WNW (301°) @ 44 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #17: Time: 03:38:30Z; Lat: 26.4°N Long: 85.8°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: -24 ft; Wind: WNW (302°) @ 44 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #18: Time: 03:39:00Z; Lat: 26.4°N Long: 85.8°W; PA: 9997 ft; D-Value: -21 ft; Wind: NW (305°) @ 41 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #19: Time: 03:39:30Z; Lat: 26.4°N Long: 85.8°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: -17 ft; Wind: NW (306°) @ 41 mph; Temp: 54°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #20: Time: 03:40:00Z; Lat: 26.3°N Long: 85.9°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: -14 ft; Wind: NW (307°) @ 41 mph; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 38°F

Normandy · #203 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:43 pm

Seems like 100 mph sustained winds in the weak SW quad. I think the winds still have a bit of catching up to do.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #204 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:49 pm

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 15
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 22
Time: 03:29:30Z
Latitude: 26.7°N
Longitude: 85.4°W
Location: 195 mi WSW of Tampa, Florida
Minimum height at 700 mb 2566 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: SE (146°) @ 151 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 9 mi ENE (58°)
Sea level pressure: 940 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 48°F at 10072 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 66°F at 10000 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 50°F
Eye character: CLOSED WALL
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 12 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 2 nm
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NE QUAD 03:27:10 Z

#205 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:50 pm

New vortex, 940 mb, max flight level winds at 131 kt in NE quadrant...will post momentarily.

#206 Postby **feederband** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:51 pm

Normandy · #207 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:52 pm

22 degree temp difference....pretty impressive.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #208 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:53 pm

130=150 mph flight level minus 10 mph which is 140 mph.

gkrangers · #209 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:56 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:130=150 mph flight level minus 10 mph which is 140 mph.

131KTS = 135MPH.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #210 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:57 pm

This storm looks like Ivan. Cuba must of really messed this storm up.

Wnghs2007 · #211 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:01 pm

Supersaturation is possible...

Post from Lookout

I heard about this a long time ago but couldnt ever recall exactly what it was/what it was called until recently.. indeed recon appearantly found some of these conditions..where the dewpoint is actually HIGHER than the actual temperature. below is the recon obvservations and a definition of supersaturation. i

Ob #12: Time: 03:26:00Z; Lat: 26.9°N Long: 85.2°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: -150 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 121 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 52°F
Ob #13: Time: 03:26:30Z; Lat: 26.8°N Long: 85.2°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: -184 ft; Wind: SSE (149°) @ 134 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 53°F
Ob #14: Time: 03:27:00Z; Lat: 26.8°N Long: 85.3°W; PA: 10033 ft; D-Value: -231 ft; Wind: SE (146°) @ 146 mph; Temp: 48°F; Dewpt: 55°F
Ob #15: Time: 03:27:30Z; Lat: 26.8°N Long: 85.3°W; PA: 10039 ft; D-Value: -300 ft; Wind: SSE (147°) @ 151 mph; Temp: 49°F; Dewpt: 56°F
Ob #16: Time: 03:28:00Z; Lat: 26.8°N Long: 85.3°W; PA: 9944 ft; D-Value: -382 ft; Wind: SSE (151°) @ 119 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 53°F

supersaturation—1. In meteorology, the condition existing in a given portion of the atmosphere (or other space) when the relative humidity is greater than 100%, that is, when it contains more water vapor than is needed to produce saturation with respect to a plane surface of pure water or pure ice.
Such supersaturation does develop because frequently there is no “plane surface of pure water (or ice)” available. In the absence of water surfaces and in the absence of condensation nuclei or any wettable surfaces, phase change from vapor to liquid cannot occur due to the free energy barrier imposed by the surface free energy of the embryonic droplets that would then have to form by spontaneous nucleation. Humid air, purified of all foreign nuclei, can be expanded in cloud chambers to relative humidities of the order of 400% without any condensation taking place. Cloud condensation occurs in our atmosphere at relative humidities near 100% only because nature provides an abundance of condensation nuclei. 2. In physical chemistry, the condition existing in a solution when it contains more solute than is needed to cause saturation.
Thermodynamically, this type of supersaturation is closely allied to supersaturation of a vapor since the solute cannot crystallize out in solutions free from impurities or seed crystals of the solute.

#212 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:02 pm

It seems that the northern gulf temperatures should supports Dennis until the end.

#213 Postby **patsmsg** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:03 pm

Normandy wrote:22 degree temp difference....pretty impressive.

18

#214 Postby **feederband** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:03 pm

If the eye is 12 miles wide and with the wind speeds like they are could this be compared to a 12 mile wide f2 -f3 tornado?

Mac · #215 Postby **Mac** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:04 pm

You know, whenever I hear people offering statistical analysis to support their hurricane predictions I often find myself wondering, "What the hell does mother nature care about statistics?" Dennis has defied a LOT of statistic probabilities in the past few days, and there seems to me to be a valuable lesson in this storm. Mother nature makes her own rules. We shouldn't get too comfortable assuming we know what she will likely do based upon what she's done before.

Normandy · #216 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:05 pm

patsmsg wrote:
Normandy wrote:22 degree temp difference....pretty impressive.

18

hmmm.....shoulda paid attention in math class.

#217 Postby **MGC** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:14 pm

Lets assume Dennis' has slowed his intensification rate tonight. His pressure has dropped 1mb in 2 hours. Also, lets assume Dennis continues to deepen at this rate. With about 20 hours to go to landfall assuming 14mph is maintained, Dennis should deepen 10mb more or down to 930mb. This should support a 140-145mph hurricane at landfall.....MGC

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #218 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:15 pm

Dropsonde Observation
Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 15
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 24
Time: 0300Z
Latitude: 26.8°N
Longitude: 81.6°W
Location: 21 mi NNE of Fort Myers, Florida
Surface: 946 mb; Temp: 78°F; Dewpt: 32°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
925mb height: 643 ft; Temp: 75°F; Dewpt: 32°F; N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
850mb height: 3081 ft; Temp: 71°F; Dewpt: 34°F; ESE (110°) @ 139 mph
700mb height: 8576 ft; Temp: 53°F; Dewpt: 32°F; SSE (150°) @ 123 mph
EYEWALL 045 SPL 2685N08536W 0331 LST WND 764 AEV 20507 DLM
WND 13104 867723

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #219 Postby **senorpepr** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:16 pm

Flight Level Data
Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 15
Flight ID: AF308
Flt Data Number: 40
Ob #01 Location: 243 mi WNW of Key West, Florida
Ob #01: Time: 04:00:30Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86.5°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 70 ft; Wind: WNW (293°) @ 44 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #02: Time: 04:01:00Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86.4°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 68 ft; Wind: WNW (292°) @ 43 mph; Temp: 52°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #03: Time: 04:01:30Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86.4°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 68 ft; Wind: WNW (292°) @ 45 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #04: Time: 04:02:00Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86.3°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: WNW (290°) @ 45 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #05: Time: 04:02:30Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86.3°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 66 ft; Wind: WNW (285°) @ 45 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #06: Time: 04:03:00Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86.2°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 64 ft; Wind: WNW (285°) @ 46 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #07: Time: 04:03:30Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86.2°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 62 ft; Wind: WNW (285°) @ 46 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #08: Time: 04:04:00Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86.1°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 62 ft; Wind: WNW (284°) @ 47 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 39°F
Ob #09: Time: 04:04:30Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86.1°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 61 ft; Wind: WNW (283°) @ 48 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #10: Time: 04:05:00Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 60 ft; Wind: W (280°) @ 50 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #11: Time: 04:05:30Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 58 ft; Wind: W (278°) @ 50 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #12: Time: 04:06:00Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 86°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 58 ft; Wind: W (276°) @ 50 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #13: Time: 04:06:30Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 85.9°W; PA: 10007 ft; D-Value: 57 ft; Wind: W (275°) @ 51 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #14: Time: 04:07:00Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 85.9°W; PA: 9990 ft; D-Value: 56 ft; Wind: W (274°) @ 52 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #15: Time: 04:07:30Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 85.8°W; PA: 10010 ft; D-Value: 55 ft; Wind: W (271°) @ 53 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #16: Time: 04:08:00Z; Lat: 25.5°N Long: 85.8°W; PA: 9993 ft; D-Value: 55 ft; Wind: W (267°) @ 54 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #17: Time: 04:08:30Z; Lat: 25.6°N Long: 85.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 55 ft; Wind: W (264°) @ 54 mph; Temp: 50°F; Dewpt: 40°F
Ob #18: Time: 04:09:00Z; Lat: 25.6°N Long: 85.7°W; PA: 10003 ft; D-Value: 54 ft; Wind: W (262°) @ 55 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #19: Time: 04:09:30Z; Lat: 25.6°N Long: 85.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 54 ft; Wind: W (260°) @ 56 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 41°F
Ob #20: Time: 04:10:00Z; Lat: 25.6°N Long: 85.6°W; PA: 10000 ft; D-Value: 54 ft; Wind: WSW (257°) @ 55 mph; Temp: 51°F; Dewpt: 41°F

NC George · #220 Postby **NC George** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:17 pm

Normandy wrote:Seems like 100 mph sustained winds in the weak SW quad. I think the winds still have a bit of catching up to do.

100+14+14 (double the forward speed, once for the forward speed subtracted, and once for the forward speed you need to add in) = 130mph on NE quad.

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