Wobble or trend.....

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baitism
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Wobble or trend.....

#1 Postby baitism » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:08 am

The last few frames have it going NW towards Mobile. Hopefully for their sake its just a wobble, if not its trouble.

Some people mentioned a ridge pushing it west, does anyone have any more info on that?
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#2 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:08 am

Mobile looks like a good bet for landfall here, unfortunately.
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#3 Postby goodlife » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:13 am

the models seem to be edging a little further west than that...perhaps the MS/AL line ...pascagoula area?
I liked the pensacola forecast better.... :lol:
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#4 Postby Stratusxpeye » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:14 am

I think that mobile has upwards of an 80% chance of this storm. I originally stated pensacola-mobile as strong cat 3 but i may have been way way off with intesity. Its sort of been stair stepping nnw then w than more north. So it all should equal out to the NHC's path.
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#5 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:15 am

I'm with Pascagoula, MS landfall.
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#6 Postby The Big Dog » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:15 am

goodlife wrote:I liked the pensacola forecast better.... :lol:

The people of Pensacola would like to have a word with you...
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#7 Postby pcolaguy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:18 am

goodlife wrote:the models seem to be edging a little further west than that...perhaps the MS/AL line ...pascagoula area?
I liked the pensacola forecast better.... :lol:


Actually this is worse for us so... I agree.
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#8 Postby jax » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:18 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I'm with Pascagoula, MS landfall.


the Pascagoula people would like to have a word with you...
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#9 Postby baitism » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:19 am

Unfortunately I dont think cooler water is going to save Mobile.....

Forgive my terribly done MSPaint job :P

Image
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#10 Postby rtd2 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:20 am

jax wrote:
Sean in New Orleans wrote:I'm with Pascagoula, MS landfall.


the Pascagoula people would like to have a word with you...



As would the Folks In Ocean springs, Mosspoint, Escatawpa, Gautier and Biloxi!
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#11 Postby Ixolib » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:22 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:I'm with Pascagoula, MS landfall.


If that's the case, Mobile Bay will get the full brunt from the south and we over here - just to the west - will get those UNREAL and VERY LOUD winds from the north. Fredrick was a bear with those north winds over this way.... How do ya'll think this storm will compare to Fredrick?


http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?country=US&addtohistory=&formtype=address&searchtype=address&cat=&address=&city=pascagoula&state=MS&zipcode=
Last edited by Ixolib on Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#12 Postby dhweather » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:22 am

baitism wrote:Unfortunately I dont think cooler water is going to save Mobile.....

Forgive my terribly done MSPaint job :P

Image


If he nudged WEST into that 30 degree water, man, cat 5 all the way.
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#13 Postby Ixolib » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:25 am

dhweather wrote:If he nudged WEST into that 30 degree water, man, cat 5 all the way.


Man, just think if this was actually AUGUST!! :eek:
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#14 Postby NFLnut » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:27 am

You can bet the little b**tard is sucking down some of that 30-degree water as we speak.
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#15 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:28 am

Ixolib wrote:
Sean in New Orleans wrote:I'm with Pascagoula, MS landfall.


If that's the case, Mobile Bay will get the full brunt from the south and we over here - just to the west - will get those UNREAL and VERY LOUD winds from the north. Fredrick was a bear with those north winds over this way.... How do ya'll think this storm will compare to Fredrick?


http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?country=US&addtohistory=&formtype=address&searchtype=address&cat=&address=&city=pascagoula&state=MS&zipcode=


Frederic was 943mb and 130 mph at landfall
Dennis is 937mb and 135 mph currently

It doesn't look like Dennis is going to weaken before hitting the coast. Frederic, move over.
Last edited by AL Chili Pepper on Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:29 am

The abnormal Atlantic SST's are actually mimicking August.



With this last wobble the extrap line from Cuba goes through Pascagoula. Round the track back to the NHC average and they are pretty much on track...
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#17 Postby goodlife » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:29 am

what was Frederic's track? How and where did he come in?
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#18 Postby Ixolib » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:29 am

Have ya'll visited the advisory thread? There is some REALLY ominous discussion going on there................................

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=940028#940028
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AL Chili Pepper
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#19 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:31 am

goodlife wrote:what was Frederic's track? How and where did he come in?


Basically the same path that Dennis is on....very little difference if any. Frederic came in from the SE, moved over Dauphin Island, and crossed the coast near the MS/AL line.
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#20 Postby Sanibel » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:01 am

My eye is registering entry into gradual curve. (Ever so slightly) This could be the turn finally...
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