Wobble West Increases Likelihood of MS Landfall, IMO

[Sean in New Orleans]

The stair stepping continues and now we are back to a W/NW wobble and these wobbles increase the Westward trend into Mississippi, in my humble opinion.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[djtil]

sitting here in new orleans the west wobble caught my attention too, but theres been a frame or 2 of nnw wobbles that made up for it already and the mean vector for the last 4 hours sends it directly to mobile....and this is without factoring in the expected gradual shift to more nnw as the day goes on.

[Steve]

It's very difficult to determine Sean. We're about due an almost due north move for an hour or so before a nudge back NW and then a bend WNW for a while before heading north again. Should this motion continue until landfall, then there is a reasonable chance MS could get hit. Should Dennis bend NNW as has been predicted all day by the TPC, then there are better odds for an Alabama or even FL landfall. FWIW, those ssd satellites are usually an hour or so old by the time they use them. They should be in the 05:45 pix by now but they're way behind. It reminds me of waking up early to see a forecast model that started running at 7pm the night before. But I don't feel so bad knowing that all you guys do it too

Steve

[Sean in New Orleans]

Maybe...we'll all find out later today. With that said, I'm almost convinced that this is a MS storm..

[djtil]

im convinced pensacola gets the eastern eyewall.

[Steve]

I'm convinced that at least 600,000 lives are turned upside down later today. Imagine sitting on the edge of everything you have an know and realizing that in less than a day, everything you worked for could be wiped out. There will be a lot of poor souls waking on Monday to a bitter cup of fate.

Steve

[Sean in New Orleans]

im convinced pensacola gets the eastern eyewall.

I hope you are wrong. I'm not sure the economy of Pensacola Beach can handle it...I think Pensacola Beach will be out of commission for 2 or 3 years if they get a direct hit from Dennis, such as the eastern eyewall.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's easier to make judgments with this live view of Dennis. I stand with my thoughts....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kevx.shtml

[djtil]

thats not live...its 1.5 hours old (see red text at top) adn only goes through 4:23, its 5:59 now.

go here

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2005&MO=JUL&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=04L.DENNIS&PROD=geo&PHOT=yes&AGE=Latest&ARCHIVE=active&TYPE=ir&SIZE=thumb&NAV=tc&CURRENT=20050710.0515.goes12.x.ir1km_bw.04LDENNIS.110kts-942mb-261N-850W.jpg&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/04L.DENNIS/ir/geo/1km_bw&STYLE=tables&CURRENT_ATCF=al042005.05071000.gif&ATCF_NAME=al042005&PRODUCT=ir&SUB_PRODUCT=geo&SUB_SUB_PRODUCT=1km_bw&DIR=/data/www/tropical_cyclones/tc05/ATL/04L.DENNIS/ir/geo/1km_bw

and run an animation...you can select up through 5:15 and 5:45 should be available any time......the 4:45 and 5:15 frames wobble back north.