Can it pull an Opal?

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PTPatrick
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Can it pull an Opal?

#1 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:03 am

I am hoping and praying that this thing pulls an opal...ie, weaken to a 3 just before landfall
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manofsteele79
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#2 Postby manofsteele79 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:05 am

Opal had an unfavorable environment ahead and was trucking along at 20+ mph.... that's what caused the collapse.

I hope I'm wrong but I don't see much in the way of roadblocks for Dennis between now and my Sweet Home Alabama....

It's really sad that they'll take two majors in 10 months.
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#3 Postby djtil » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:06 am

ivan went downhill the last few hours too...also the southcentral la storm a couple years ago went from a 4 to a 1 in like 6 hours....it was unreal. what was the name?
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manofsteele79
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#4 Postby manofsteele79 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:06 am

Was that Lili?
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Normandy
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#5 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:08 am

This was more organized than Lili, is not ingesting dry air like ivan, and isnt getting sheared like opal. I dont want to be pessimistic, but this probably wont get any weaker at landfall.
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#6 Postby djtil » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:12 am

lili, a borderline cat 5 storm wasnt organized?

what all 3 of those have in common is that they were not forecast to significantly weaken before landfall and they did....
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#7 Postby Normandy » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:13 am

djtil wrote:lili, a borderline cat 5 storm wasnt organized?

what all 3 of those have in common is that they were not forecast to significantly weaken before landfall and they did....


From what I understand Lili didnt even have hurricane force winds in here SW quad. Thats HIGHLY unorganized for a Cat 4.
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#8 Postby djtil » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:16 am

lili was a monster, not sure where your info is coming from......and explaining why she just went up in thin air has never really been answered..other than cold water upwelling.
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#9 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:18 am

I don't think we'll pull an Opal or Lili (or even Ivan), but some weakening is certainly possible if not probable before landfall with slightly cooler and shallower waters. However, relatively quick movement should prevent much I would think.

Still, this wil almost certainly come in at least as a strong cat 3 or higher unless something unforseen to this point happens.
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#10 Postby Aslkahuna » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:24 am

Satellite imagery shows some erosion of the SW quadrant of the CDO.

Steve
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#11 Postby ALhurricane » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:25 am

Actually, the water temperatures are actually running at 84-86 degrees off the AL and NW FL coasts. I am not sure where the talk of cooler waters has come from.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... mex.cf.gif
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Derek Ortt

#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:26 am

Lili was VERY disorganized as a cat 4. H-Wind showed no cane winds in the SW quad. It had the organizationlevel of a cat 1, and it showed.

Most this could weaken to is a 3
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HurricaneBill
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#13 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:35 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Lili was VERY disorganized as a cat 4. H-Wind showed no cane winds in the SW quad. It had the organizationlevel of a cat 1, and it showed.

Most this could weaken to is a 3


Wasn't Lili more organized at landfall than at peak intensity?
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THead
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#14 Postby THead » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:57 am

Lili was 938 MB 140 MPH at 25.9N 90W, and 942 MB 145 MPH at 27.2N 90.6W, I don't know what you call organized or pretty or what, but any storm capable of generating those kind of numbers is no slouch.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/JavaHist//
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#15 Postby Tri-State_1925 » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:42 am

ALhurricane wrote:Actually, the water temperatures are actually running at 84-86 degrees off the AL and NW FL coasts. I am not sure where the talk of cooler waters has come from.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... mex.cf.gif


TWC did a lot of on-camera mentioning of relatively cooler waters at the costline that was partly responsible for Opal's weakening...whether it's true or not

Doesn't look like that's the case here...
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Derek Ortt

#16 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:51 am

structurally, Lili was the most pathetic looking cat 4 hurricane in history. It only received 15-20KT of shear, but that destroyed the circulation. It was about as structurally organized at landfall as it was at peak intensity.

Dennis is far better organized
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THead
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#17 Postby THead » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:19 am

A link to some great pics of Lili

http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/ ... index.html

She's not looking too shabby in this one:

http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/ ... 2_2253.png

Just wishful thinking on my part that Dennis does the same as Lili, and dies.
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HurricaneBill
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#18 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:27 am

Derek Ortt wrote:structurally, Lili was the most pathetic looking cat 4 hurricane in history. It only received 15-20KT of shear, but that destroyed the circulation. It was about as structurally organized at landfall as it was at peak intensity.

Dennis is far better organized


What about Karl from last year at peak intensity?
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