THE OFFICIAL DENNIS LANDFALL PREDICTION THREAD

knotimpaired · #141 Postby **knotimpaired** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 3:11 am

I'll throw in my guess and say that Dennis will hit Dauphin Island, Al.

wxwatcher91 · #142 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:01 am

Dennis is now heading just north of NW
03 GMT 07/09/05 23.0N 82.1W 110 962 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 07/09/05 23.9N 82.9W 90 972 Category 1 Hurricane

0.9N 0.8W

...and im pretty confident on the math this time :wink:

carve · #143 Postby **carve** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:12 am

Very most western part of florida pennisula.....strong cat 3 or weaker cat 4 if you can call that weak..

#144 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:54 am

Here's my 2 cents.
Dennis is being guided 3 different systems.
1 Subtropical ridge east of Fla.
2 Upper Trough in NE GOM
3 Ridge over Midwestern states
1 should hold it's ground, 2 drifting southward, 3 moving SE
Here's my take on what I'm guessing Dennis will do, continue NW to NNW for the next 12 to 24 hours then turn on a more WNW course making landfall @ Slidell La. Monday mid morning.
As a side note Dennis will probably do more damage with it's rains than it's wind b/c he's forecast to stick around awhile. Hopefully drift westward :roll:

#145 Postby **dhweather** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 7:56 am

Pascagoula to Pensacola, cat 3

FWBHurricane · #146 Postby **FWBHurricane** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:22 am

Landfall in Gulf Breeze, Florida....Category 3.

#147 Postby **azskyman** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:32 am

Dennis remains pretty strong willed and intent on being a little more west than others have expected...and for that, I would hazard a guess of Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a Category 3.

Banditt · #148 Postby **Banditt** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 9:33 am

Orange Beach, Al. Cat 3.

mtm4319 · #149 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:31 am

Just west of Fort Walton Beach (around 86.7 W), 115mph.

therock1811 · #150 Postby **therock1811** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:34 pm

I will say Mobile, AL as a cat 3.

#151 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 2:43 pm

I am sticking with my prediction that I made on Thursday night...

I am going to say between Pass Christian, MS and Mobile, AL.

wxwatcher91 · #152 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 09, 2005 5:30 pm

It appears to me on satellite that it is currently heading in line for Pensacola... I'm gonna say 30 miles east of Pensacola

rightbayou · #153 Postby **rightbayou** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 12:34 am

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/visir/atlantic/visirjava2.html

Is this another "wobble" or should La start sweating bullets? I'm not sure what constitutes a wobble as opposed to a course shift[/url]

cccmachine · #154 Postby **cccmachine** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:30 am

One more quick bomb 921mb landfall

NC George · #155 Postby **NC George** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:32 am

mtm4319 wrote:Just west of Fort Walton Beach (around 86.7 W), 115mph.

I think you may nail the location, sadly not the intensity.

#156 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:42 am

NC George wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Just west of Fort Walton Beach (around 86.7 W), 115mph.

I think you may nail the location, sadly not the intensity.

Sadly the intensity appears to be off by about 25-30 mph low. The landfall location is probably spot on and right where I predicted earlier in this thread. Unfortunately several who know their weather agree with us. I am hoping and praying for a miracle intusion of dry air to bring Dennis to his knees, but nothing indicates that is going to happen.

mtm4319 · #157 Postby **mtm4319** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 6:29 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
NC George wrote:
mtm4319 wrote:Just west of Fort Walton Beach (around 86.7 W), 115mph.

I think you may nail the location, sadly not the intensity.

Sadly the intensity appears to be off by about 25-30 mph low. The landfall location is probably spot on and right where I predicted earlier in this thread. Unfortunately several who know their weather agree with us. I am hoping and praying for a miracle intusion of dry air to bring Dennis to his knees, but nothing indicates that is going to happen.

Turns out I nailed the intensity but not the location (although I was a lot closer than I thought I'd be 12-18 hours ago).

Innotech · #158 Postby **Innotech** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:30 pm

I had said Mobile Bay to Gulf Shores, Cat 2. I shall eat my crow with a side of sushi.

#159 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 12:23 am

vbhoutex wrote:Ok I will jump in now. I think it has been pretty obvious in other posts in other threads that I have made where I am taking it. To make it official though, the range is from Pascagoula, MS to Panama City, FL with a pinpoint landfall of Hurlburt Field or Mary Esther, FL just to the West of Fort Walton Beach, at a CAT3/CAT4 intensity. I am however hoping that the heat content in the GOM is lower than anticipated which could weaken Dennis some where he has been today.

I got my wish on the intensity and was off by about 15 miles on the landfall. Dennis landfalled between P'cola Beach and Navarre and went in right over Eastern Gulf Breeze in an area called Woodlawn Beach and Oriole Beach. The eye went right over my parents old house and right up the bay.

#160 Postby **jasons2k** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:42 am

I was off, way off, I would have updated Fri or Sat but I was on the road all weekend. In this case though I'm glad, it looks like it couldn't have gone in in a 'better' place.

THE OFFICIAL DENNIS LANDFALL PREDICTION THREAD

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