Category 5?

#101 Postby **Pebbles** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:21 am

This is not breaking down at all.. in fact the pressure has been steadily falling all night and the core has remained relatively strong all evening. Don't see anything that is dropping this down to cat 3 unless an ERC happens.. which doesn't look to be happening at the moment.

wxwatcher91 · #102 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:23 am

even if an EWRC DID happen, Dennis would probably maintain cat 4 strength during the EWRC and would probably STRENGTHEN more from it later

#103 Postby **Pebbles** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:25 am

You got a point.. possibly an erc right before landfall might weaken it a tad.. but not if it happened right now... but don't count on it weakening..just pray it stops strengthening at this point.

Edit.. eck my posts come out wrong.. sorry been up over 24 hours.. Your right that if the ERC happened right now it would probably could/would restrengthen before landfall. But if right before might help it weaken a tad... to cat 3, your probably right to say not likely

Normandy · #104 Postby **Normandy** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:30 am

Based upon the latest sat pic, hes looking really ragged. No cat 5 this time I dont think.

canegrl04 · #105 Postby **canegrl04** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:30 am

Was watching Fox news this morning and they began saying "possibly cat 5" :eek:

I think the NHC is aware that it could happen,too

wxwatcher91 · #106 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:32 am

I think Dennis is going through an EWRC right now... but dont count on me :wink:

#107 Postby **feederband** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:34 am

Normandy wrote:Based upon the latest sat pic, hes looking really ragged. No cat 5 this time I dont think.

Maybe good news ...Maybe...Looks like something is starting to beat it up a little..

cccmachine · #108 Postby **cccmachine** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:36 am

Typical length of time to complete an ERC? Looks like he's in one

Normandy · #109 Postby **Normandy** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 7:37 am

If hes in one now thats not good...especially since his core is small...the ERC prolly wouldn't take but a couple of hours.

EASTONPA · #110 Postby **EASTONPA** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:16 am

QUESTION: I'm assuming that storm making landfall moving NNW or WNW (as in current scenario w Dennis) is worse than landfall moving directly north; i.e., with former, NNE quadrant, which is most intense, is first to interact w land??

Nimbus · #111 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:25 am

If the storm came in west of Mobile bay you would have the eastern eyewall winds driving storm surge up Mobile bay.

Since the wind rotates counterclockwise around hurricanes you can tell the rough position of the eye even once the power goes out and you are huddled in your bathroom.

With Dennis it will be reassuring to the people east of the eyewall when the wind starts to swing around and beat on the southwest corner of your house after the eye passes.

EASTONPA · #112 Postby **EASTONPA** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:30 am

follow up question: with NNW track, landfall just W of Mobile bay would bring most intense weather to the NE, perhaps just ahead of eye wall crossing land? anyhow, obvious implications would be for Pennsacola or Mobile

Nimbus · #113 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:53 am

As the storm is traveling NNW The most intense weather is in the NNE eyewall due to the added forward motion.

If the wind is shifting around from the north as the eye approaches it means you will be on the weaker side of the eye.

That would still be no picnic for anyone caught near the western eyewall though.

Category 5?

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