Dry air is now becoming entrained into Dennis.

[ncweatherwizard]

You can look at a visible image and tell this; it's clear what's going on in the southwest quadrant of the storm. Then check the water vapor imagery to clarify this, and it's definite then and there that dry air is working its way into the hurricane. It looks like the storm will have to deal with this the whole way to landfall. If the dry air can work its way to the center before landfall, then you could see a fair amount of weakening. But now time is an issue; if anything, you want Dennis to slow down before landfall. Big if...of course will the dry air make it in time; it's close; more on this in a few minutes.

Scott

[Thunder44]

Yes, I have noticed that, but the inner core remains protected and is more is convection is building SW from the center now.

[Derek Ortt]

I believe this is an EWRC

a cane looks sheared and to be entraining dry air when the EWRC is ongoing. I saw verye arly this morning a clear double eye. Hate that the pressure still is falling

[Mac]

I believe this is an EWRC

a cane looks sheared and to be entraining dry air when the EWRC is ongoing. I saw verye arly this morning a clear double eye. Hate that the pressure still is falling

Derek,

I understand that ERCs don't necessarily take that long to occur--maybe a couple of hours. So what implications does this have for intensity? Perhaps indicative that weakening is not likely once the ERC occurs, and perhaps a strengthening hurricane at landfall?

[baygirl_1]

EWRC===yikes! still time to strengthen, then. derek: what do you think of north movement? possible wobble due to EWRC? i mean, if north movement continues, wouldn't that put navarre/destin area in much more danger???

[dhweather]

I believe this is an EWRC

a cane looks sheared and to be entraining dry air when the EWRC is ongoing. I saw verye arly this morning a clear double eye. Hate that the pressure still is falling

While not necessarily good news, more proof you learn something new every day! I did not know this - thanks for sharing Derek!!

[ncweatherwizard]

In the southwest quadrant...not of the inner core; (I can agree with the replacement cycle), the storm is being hindered so to speak. Just beyond the CDO, moisture content in the storm is much lower. It definitely looks as if something may be working closer in the low/mid levels...we've seen this again and again: we even saw it earlier with this storm. Of course, to do anything, it'd have to penetrate the CDO and work to the center, and until then (if it gets there) you won't see any weakening, and that pressure's going .

Bad news is the replacement cycle's liable to be done before any of that could happen.

[Duffy]

I just seen on CNN that the ERC has ended and its strengthening again, so i think we will have a strenghething Cane at landfall

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is one of the reasons why there has never been a cat4 an July. Because of the dry air that wraps around the system as its making landfall. I also think this will start to become better oreganized durning the next few hours as the EWRC ends....Expect it to make landfall about the same...

[skysummit]

There's no dry air coming in. Dennis has created his own environment and will not let dry air in. We could probably expect one more intensification before landfall.

[ChaserUK]

There's no dry air coming in. Dennis has created his own environment and will not let dry air in. We could probably expect one more intensification before landfall.

Indeed, I too would be surprised if dry air could affect Dennis at this stage. He is such a well structured storm.

[skysummit]

There's no dry air coming in. Dennis has created his own environment and will not let dry air in. We could probably expect one more intensification before landfall.

Indeed, I too would be surprised if dry air could affect Dennis at this stage. He is such a well structured storm.

Here's an example. Look at this loop in the fast mode and look at that spurt of energy that has come out of the SW side of the CDO. That energy is quickly taking over any dry air. He's definately in control.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satrgnlloop.master.pl?caribbean&type=vis

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The latest Ir shows that Dennis has reformed a soild area of red around its eye again. With the eye starting to warm/Become better defined on Satellite. It appears that the window is closing on the dry air.

[ChaserUK]

..ah yes I see what you mean! That spurt out of the SW just covers up the dry air - no doubt mixing it up.

[Brent]

It may have weakened slightly, but it's too late IMO for an Opal or Lili collapse.

Pressure may even be falling when it crosses the coast.

[ChaserUK]

I don't see him weakening again because there is nothing to do it apart from 'natural' intensity fluctations I guess but a Cat 5 at landfal must still be a risk - look how quickly he intensified yesterday.

Amazing this is it's hot and sunny here and I must be the only one not on the beach!

[Mac]

I'm wondering if some of the "ragged" appearance we are seeing might be the result of an impending change of direction. I'm not suggesting he's going to alter course, mind you. But, by the way the storm (and especially the eyewall) seems to be stretching a bit to the NW, I wonder if we're about to see a NW or WNW jog here. ?????

[ncweatherwizard]

If it's there, it's lower level, and it's definitely not in the CDO. It won't do anything if it's beyond that. It's got to get to the center.
As for a hurricane creating its own environment....not applicable here. There's air outside the storm, and there's air inside the storm. What air becomes knitted into the circulation, starts mixing into the storm around the center. It's not as if the hurricane can actively decide to kick out dry air. Isabel was probably the most clear instance of this.
Convection burst to immediate southwest of the center; expect pressure to fall for the immediate period.

[ncweatherwizard]

And the air inside a storm, air outside a storm thing...I mean that in general; that's the case for every storm.

[Derek Ortt]

nc

any storm that is going through an ewrc looks like this. In fact, this is one of the betetr ones that I have seen. All this will mean is a larger eye wall meaning more people will be leveled, which is what will happen where the eye crosses the coast