Headings/Angles for Coastal Impact (10am Central update)

[Wnghs2007]

BTW, The New 4 AM EDT, 3 AM CDT position is at 27.6 North, 86. 0 West

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

AT 3 AM CDT...0800Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM TAMPA AND TALLAHASSEE
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
NNNN

Thanks. I was using those coordinates, just forgot to update them on the text. (I copy and paste each hour and overwrite the coordinates and times, headings, etc. when needed.)

Very cool, and btw great job you are doing. Keep up the great work my friend.

[mtm4319]

BTW, The New 4 AM EDT, 3 AM CDT position is at 27.6 North, 86. 0 West

ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

AT 3 AM CDT...0800Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM TAMPA AND TALLAHASSEE
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$
NNNN

Thanks. I was using those coordinates, just forgot to update them on the text. (I copy and paste each hour and overwrite the coordinates and times, headings, etc. when needed.)

Very cool, and btw great job you are doing. Keep up the great work my friend.

Thanks. I have to go to sleep sometime though. So the 4am advisory will probably be the last one I'll do... and then we'll see if I still have power when I wake up in the morning.

[Ixolib]

Realizing what the track has been indicating (THANKS AGAIN!!), is it foreseable that Dennis will react similar to the way he did when he first touched land in Cuba? To my recollection, he kinda crawled along the coastline to the west for a bit before drifting inland.

[mtm4319]

Realizing what the track has been indicating (THANKS AGAIN!!), is it foreseable that Dennis will react similar to the way he did when he first touched land in Cuba? To my recollection, he kinda crawled along the coastline to the west for a bit before drifting inland.

God, I hope not! Ditching this heading stuff and just looking at the radar, it might wind up east of Mobile.

[rtd2]

Realizing what the track has been indicating (THANKS AGAIN!!), is it foreseable that Dennis will react similar to the way he did when he first touched land in Cuba? To my recollection, he kinda crawled along the coastline to the west for a bit before drifting inland.

God, I hope not! Ditching this heading stuff and just looking at the radar, it might wind up east of Mobile.

Looking at this Loop You may be right...But not Far to east...N Winds would Empty Mobile Bay!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/evx_N0Z_lp.html

[mtm4319]

Disclaimer: This is not a forecast; it is an extrapolation of current trends. The current heading can, and probably will, change over time.

4am Central time update (My final update of the night)

As of 4am Central time, the 6-hour motion of Dennis was 1.2 degrees North and 0.8 degrees West (a heading of 330.0 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 4am Central time was 27.8 N and 86.1 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (4am Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

314.8 Gulfport, MS
317.0 Biloxi, MS
320.1 Pascagoula, MS
322.4 MS/AL state line
325.0 Fort Gaines, AL
330.6 Gulf Shores, AL
333.6 AL/FL state line
342.3 Pensacola Beach, FL
350.5 Fort Walton Beach, FL
352.4 Destin, FL

The current 6-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore just west of Gulf Shores, AL. This would place the extrapolated path almost directly over downtown Mobile -- but I must stress that this is a more-than-minute shift from last hour, which could possibly continue East.

[mtm4319]

I'm going to sleep. Don't know when I'll be awake, but it'll likely be between 4 and 7 hours from now. If I still have power, the updates will continue. Everyone, please stay safe!

[rtd2]

THANK YOU! hope you rest WELL!

[smashmode]

This is *relatively* good news with your last forecast....If the storm would have been more west of mobile bay.it would have emptied mobile bay directly into mobile..

but now it looking more like a direct hit on mobile itself..saving the bay..

This is definately hang on time.

[mtm4319]

Indeed, Mobile looks to have dodged another bullet.

Disclaimer: This is not a forecast; it is an extrapolation of current trends. The current heading can, and probably will, change over time.

9am Central time update

As of 9am Central time, the 6-hour motion of Dennis was 1.5 degrees North and 0.5 degrees West (a heading of 343.9 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 9am Central time was 29.1 N and 86.5 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (9am Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

299.5 Gulfport, MS
301.9 Biloxi, MS
304.9 Pascagoula, MS
308.1 MS/AL state line
310.0 Fort Gaines, AL
318.1 Gulf Shores, AL
323.2 AL/FL state line
339.5 Pensacola Beach, FL
356.2 Fort Walton Beach, FL

The current 6-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore just east of Pensacola Beach, FL. Indeed, the extrapolated path has changed since I went to sleep -- but much more than I had anticipated.

[mtm4319]

[mtm4319]

Disclaimer: This is not a forecast; it is an extrapolation of current trends. The current heading can, and probably will, change over time.

10am Central time update

As of 10am Central time, the 6-hour motion of Dennis was 1.6 degrees North and 0.6 degrees West (a heading of 342.0 degrees). The position of Dennis as of 10am Central time was 29.1 N and 86.5 W.

Here is the average heading Dennis would need to take from now (10am Central time) on in order to reach the coast at the positions listed above:

295.1 Gulfport, MS
297.5 Biloxi, MS
300.4 Pascagoula, MS
303.9 MS/AL state line
305.4 Fort Gaines, AL
314.7 Gulf Shores, AL
321.1 AL/FL state line
342.8 Pensacola Beach, FL

The current 6-hour heading, if sustained until landfall, would take Dennis ashore just west of Pensacola Beach, FL.

The storm is now north of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and west of Fort Walton Beach and Destin.

[mtm4319]

[mtm4319]

Go here for all of my future updates.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=941341