Convection burst to influence track ?

[Ziplock]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Note the flare up of intense convection in the SW quadrant. Will Dennis move more to the NW when he muscles that mass around the center...throwing that momentum to the west thereby pulling him back to the West more than to the NOrth??

[baygirl_1]

they brought up something on weather channel during interview w/one of our county commisioners: could dennis do like he did along cuba coast-- hug it as he moves more west? i sure hope not.

[Mac]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html

Note the flare up of intense convection in the SW quadrant. Will Dennis move more to the NW when he muscles that mass around the center...throwing that momentum to the west thereby pulling him back to the West more than to the NOrth??

I thought I was seeing a NW jog. But I don't know if the jog is influenced by the convection or the convection is influenced by the jog???

[rtd2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html

Note the flare up of intense convection in the SW quadrant. Will Dennis move more to the NW when he muscles that mass around the center...throwing that momentum to the west thereby pulling him back to the West more than to the NOrth??

I thought I was seeing a NW jog. But I don't know if the jog is influenced by the convection or the convection is influenced by the jog???

WLOX-Biloxi is showing North @ 16 and WALA-Moblie is showing NORTHWEST @ 16 Which is it?

[HurryKane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html

Note the flare up of intense convection in the SW quadrant. Will Dennis move more to the NW when he muscles that mass around the center...throwing that momentum to the west thereby pulling him back to the West more than to the NOrth??

I thought I was seeing a NW jog. But I don't know if the jog is influenced by the convection or the convection is influenced by the jog???

WLOX-Biloxi is showing North @ 16 and WALA-Moblie is showing NORTHWEST @ 16 Which is it?

10 AM advisory is NNW at 18 mph.

[mtm4319]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html

Note the flare up of intense convection in the SW quadrant. Will Dennis move more to the NW when he muscles that mass around the center...throwing that momentum to the west thereby pulling him back to the West more than to the NOrth??

I thought I was seeing a NW jog. But I don't know if the jog is influenced by the convection or the convection is influenced by the jog???

WLOX-Biloxi is showing North @ 16 and WALA-Moblie is showing NORTHWEST @ 16 Which is it?

NHC says North. It's probably between NNW and N in reality.

[gkrangers]

It moved .4 west and .1 north between 8 and 10AM CDT.

[rtd2]

It moved .4 west and .1 north between 8 and 10AM CDT.

Thanks Just getting up and Looks west over north on radar but I'm seeing ALL kinds of directions on the tube!

[gkrangers]

Best track is probably NNW with wobbles till landfall....probably over or just east to Pensacola.

[Mac]

It moved .4 west and .1 north between 8 and 10AM CDT.

Yeah, I looked at it over and over again, because I wanted to be sure I wasn't being fooled by expanding convection in the NE quad--which can create the appearance of a NW jog. But I defintely thought I saw a more NW component over the past few frames of the sat loop.

[Ziplock]

Good question Mac. I don't think the convective burst would influence the track until it has swung around to the E, then N, THEN towards the West side of the storm.

Inother words, IF this influences track, it will not influence it for a short while, not until the convections swings around. Something to do with momentum, I think.

Whether or not the track is influencing the convection, I'd have to appeal to the pro Mets for that one.

We have already seen a similar burst and swing and adjustment to track with this hurricane. Too tired to remember exactly the lat long coord's where this did occur...so much has happened in a few hours!!

Maybe someone has a 24 hour loop they can post?

Zip

[ericinmia]

Actually the past half hour it has been moving 322 degrees down from the 340+ it had been moving, but that is still NW.
-Eric

[Mac]

Yep, new sat loop clearly shows NW movement recently.

[tw861]

I also noticed the outflow over Louisiana was sort of "pointing" to the west and some say that sometimes happens before a change in direction. Just an observation.

[Mac]

Yes, I've often noticed that hurricanes seem to become elongated and appear somewhat disrupted as they are making an alteration to their course. I don't know if this is due to compression forces as a hurricane presses up against a ridge, due to inertia, or perhaps both. It definitely seems more pronounced with stronger hurricanes.

[rtd2]

I also noticed the outflow over Louisiana was sort of "pointing" to the west and some say that sometimes happens before a change in direction. Just an observation.

Interesting...Wlox-Biloxi Updated from N to NNW to agree with the latest NHC advisory

[Mac]

I also noticed the outflow over Louisiana was sort of "pointing" to the west and some say that sometimes happens before a change in direction. Just an observation.

Interesting...Wlox-Biloxi Updated from N to NNW to agree with the latest NHC advisory

Yet, you can clearly see from the latest IR sat loop that Dennis has been heading more NW recently.

[rtd2]

I also noticed the outflow over Louisiana was sort of "pointing" to the west and some say that sometimes happens before a change in direction. Just an observation.

Interesting...Wlox-Biloxi Updated from N to NNW to agree with the latest NHC advisory

Yet, you can clearly see from the latest IR sat loop that Dennis has been heading more NW recently.

No doubt and Center almost seems to by eleongated....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/evx_N0Z_lp.html

[mvtrucking]

It moved .4 west and .1 north between 8 and 10AM CDT.

8am-28.7N / 86.4 W

10am-29.4N / 86.7W

Wouldn't this be .7 N and .3 W between 8am-10am? Maybe I'm reading wrong..

[gkrangers]

It moved .4 west and .1 north between 8 and 10AM CDT.

8am-28.7N / 86.4 W

10am-29.4N / 86.7W

Wouldn't this be .7 N and .3 W between 8am-10am? Maybe I'm reading wrong..

I don't know...I probably screwed up...I just woke up.