18Z NHC Model init....105 knots...

Derecho · #1 Postby **Derecho** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:48 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05071018

Interesting to see if they drop the winds in the 3PM advisory; I suspect they'll just leave them up and everything will get sorted out in the final report months from now....

It's uneniably weakening at a rapid clip right before landfall.

logybogy · #2 Postby **logybogy** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:52 pm

CNN just said its a category 3 at 120 mph.

#3 Postby **TSmith274** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm

Thankfully it won't come in at 145mph. Remember, wind damage is exponential.

jkt21787 · #4 Postby **jkt21787** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm

Wow the gulf coast has been mostly spared, damage will be much less severe.

#5 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:54 pm

Steve Lyons is just reporting that the winds are down to 120 and it should make landfall as a Cat 3.

mtm4319 · #6 Postby **mtm4319** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:54 pm

Wow, this is exactly what Ivan did. Weaken to 120 just before hitting land.

Derecho · #7 Postby **Derecho** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:57 pm

This has been so rapid the question is whether the landfall gets dropped to Cat 2 months from now in the final report.

Normandy · #8 Postby **Normandy** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:57 pm

With a 942 pressure and tight wind core??? Wow that is reallly interesting.

soonertwister · #9 Postby **soonertwister** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:58 pm

Adding the forward motion component, the most seriously impacted areas to the east of the center benefit greatly by this wind speed reduction. The force component is down about 40% from when the wind was at 145.

There's a large difference between 120 and 145 in terms of damage.

logybogy · #10 Postby **logybogy** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:59 pm

It's probably the waters off the NGOM. They are very shallow with probably not enough heat content to sustain even a storm like Dennis that is small compact and moving fast. I wonder if a Cat 4 or 5 is ever possible in this particular region.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #11 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:59 pm

Some real serious studies need to be tooken place soon to tell why almost every north Gulf storm has done this?

BReb · #12 Postby **BReb** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:06 pm

"I wonder if a Cat 4 or 5 is ever possible in this particular region."

Camille at 200 mph + would suggest yes.

rtd2 · #13 Postby **rtd2** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:08 pm

BReb wrote:"I wonder if a Cat 4 or 5 is ever possible in this particular region."

Camille at 200 mph + would suggest yes.

Maybe Once in a Lifetime Conditions occured for That?

#14 Postby **Trader Ron** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:18 pm

Heh..Maybe my landfall forecast of 110 MPH won't be that far off after all.. :lol:

18Z NHC Model init....105 knots...

18Z NHC Model init....105 knots...

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