98L,TD may be forming

#161 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:10 pm

Now a special feature, from the TWD 2:05 EDT PM:

Central atlc tropical wave along 40w/41w S of 17n moving W 10-15
kt with a 1013 mb low along the wave near 10n. Bands of tstms
around the low are more distinct and stronger than yesterday
with tropical cyclone formation possible within 36 hours.
Vertical wind shear is very low and the system will be moving
over progressively warm water temperatures. Computer models
suggest the low will move W to WNW at about 10 kt and regardless
of development... bring a good chance of rain to the Lesser
Antilles by late Wed.

#162 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:19 pm

10/1745 UTC 10.7N 41.9W T1.5/1.5 98 -- Atlantic Ocean

Hmm almost a depression according to SSD dvorak T numbers.

#163 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:22 pm

This could be declared a depression probably tonight.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #164 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:23 pm

Its t numbers are now high enough for a depression. In with the quickscats showing a clearly defined LLC...Histroy will tell the rest.

Guest · #165 Postby **Guest** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:43 pm

As the constantly changing headline for this thread says, T-numbers now support tropical depression BUT still the call of the hurricane specialist at NHC.

Marine weather discussion refers to wave/low and reveals thinking.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
DENNIS PASSED JUST E OF BUOY 42003 SEVERAL HOURS AGO WITH SEAS
PEAKING AT 20 FT. ALSO...BUOYS OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF DENNIS
ARE RAPIDLY BUILDING AT THIS HOUR AND NEARING 20 FT. GIVEN THIS
INFORMATION AND THE FACT THAT DENNIS HAS REGAINED MUCH OF ITS
PRIOR STRENGTH...MAX SEAS NOW EXPECTED IN THE 35-40 FT RANGE.
TPC IN-HOUSE WAVE GUIDANCE HAS STEADILY INCREASED THE SEAS AND
NOW STANDS AT 40 FT. GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES BASED ON LATEST BUOY DATA AND NHC
TRACK/RADII ARE EXPECTED. DENNIS MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY WITH
RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL BRING
DOWN THE SEAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN GUIDANCE IN E GULF ZONE AND
KEEP RESIDUAL SWELL IN REMAINING ZONES FOR A FEW PERIODS AFTER
LANDFALL.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING RAPIDLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
EXCEPTION TO SOME GUSTY WINDS IN TRAILING RAINBANDS N OF 20N.
EARLIER SHIP REPORT SHOWED 7 FT SO SOME RESIDUAL SWELL IS STILL
PRESENT BUT THIS SHOULD COME DOWN EARLY TODAY. MODERATE ELY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH THU
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE LATER PERIODS WILL
BE AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE/LOW CURRENTLY ALONG 40W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE IN VISIBLE AND NIGHT-TIME
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE
APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION. NONETHELESS...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...SHOW
SOME TYPE OF LOW CENTER MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE TUE
OR WED. IN FACT...OVER HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW 20
KT OR GREATER WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN LIGHT OF ALL THIS...I
WILL INTRODUCE LOW CENTER INTO THE FORECAST AND CONTINUE TO WALK
THE FORECAST WINDS/SEAS UPWARDS FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TUE
AND WED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE WINDS/SEAS ABOVE TYPICAL VALUES AND MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SW N ATLANTIC...
WITH HURRICANE DENNIS NOW WELL W OF THE AREA...ALL WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DROPPED AND RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH EXCEPTION TO A SMALL AREA
OF WINDS TO 20 KT NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST GENERALLY W OF
77W. ALSO...SOME RESIDUAL SWELL WILL LINGER THROUGH SUN NIGHT OR
PERHAPS MONDAY OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION. THEREAFTER...RIDGE
MOVES BACK IN WITH MODERATE ELY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE

CARIBBEAN...
NONE

GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE WARNING...ZONES GMZ084 AND GMZ086.

FORECASTER RHOME

#166 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:58 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982005) ON 20050710 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050710 1800 050711 0600 050711 1800 050712 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 42.2W 11.1N 44.6W 11.5N 46.9W 11.8N 49.2W
A98E 10.8N 42.2W 11.0N 44.5W 11.4N 47.0W 11.7N 49.5W
LBAR 10.8N 42.2W 11.0N 44.7W 11.8N 47.6W 12.5N 50.6W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050712 1800 050713 1800 050714 1800 050715 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.9N 51.7W 12.5N 57.1W 14.0N 62.6W 15.7N 67.8W
A98E 11.8N 52.1W 12.9N 57.1W 14.0N 62.0W 15.3N 67.0W
LBAR 13.1N 53.8W 13.8N 59.9W 14.9N 64.9W 15.8N 68.4W
SHIP 48KTS 62KTS 68KTS 72KTS
DSHP 48KTS 62KTS 68KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 42.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 40.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 37.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The models at 18:00z take the south track and nothing that looks like it will avoid the lesser antilles.

yoda · #167 Postby **yoda** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:59 pm

That looks quite disconcerting...

Website · #168 Postby **Brent** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:06 pm

yoda wrote:That looks quite disconcerting...

I know... as soon as Dennis leaves we have Emily.

:roll:

cajungal · #169 Postby **cajungal** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:28 pm

ericinmia wrote:The GEM is showing it here in about 8 days.... so yeah in general if it comes this way, there will only be a week or so.

Scary enough it has it pulling an andrew through dade and then up into the LA, MS, AL area. That would be sooo bad.
-Eric

That is waaaaaaaaay too early for them to say that! Plenty of time to watch this system and anything can happen. I am real emotional just watching what is going on with Dennis on the panhandle. I just can't take to see any more destruction.

#170 Postby **HurricaneQueen** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:46 pm

I'm just pleased that it looks as if our beloved St. Maarten will be well north of whatever this becomes.

In the meantime my heart goes out to those experiencing Dennis.

Lynn

Kennethb · #171 Postby **Kennethb** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:55 pm

This season is going like the West Pacific usually does, one after the other. While I have not kept any tabs, the West Pacific seems to have been quiet so far this year.

BUD · #172 Postby **BUD** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:57 pm

Is the Euro model picking this system up yet??? and please post it here I am useing webtv for now until I get home on monday.Thanks

Horatio 'Cane · #173 Postby **Horatio 'Cane** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 2:59 pm

Hopefully, this will NOT be an issue for the CONUS??? :eek:

Galvestongirl · #174 Postby **Galvestongirl** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:01 pm

I apologize in advance, but, what is CONUS? :oops

#175 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:02 pm

Galvestongirl wrote:I apologize in advance, but, what is CONUS? :oops

Conus is=Continental United States

Horatio 'Cane · #176 Postby **Horatio 'Cane** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:04 pm

I apologize in advance, but, what is CONUS? :oops

Continental UNITED STATES.

#177 Postby **Bob R** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:22 pm

Ugh!!!
I wanna get off this bus! :sick:

#178 Postby **Canelaw99** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:25 pm

Bus?? This is more like the express train or the Concorde :wink:

#179 Postby **sweetpea** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:27 pm

Bob R wrote:Ugh!!!
I wanna get off this bus!

Hurricaneman · #180 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Jul 10, 2005 3:28 pm

This bus is going to go till november

98L,TD may be forming

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