Yet another hurricane weakens dramatically...

[HurryKane]

I guess you can say we've been damn lucky in a way.

Lili was a Cat. 4 that dropped to a Cat. 2 at landfall within hours.
Ivan was a Cat. 5 in the gulf that dropped to a Cat. 3 at landfall.
Dennis was a Cat. 4 in which dropped to a Cat.3 and the eye shrinking a bit as well.

Maybe there is something to learn from this? These storms all weakened a bit before landfall. Why has this been the case?

The Big Guy has a really sick sense of humor?


I'm kidding. KIDDING.

One negative I can see from all this is that LESS AND LESS people will want to evacuate. You scared New Orleans two years in a row.

These storms are monsters and talk of total devestation was all over the place for Ivan and Dennis. People will become lax, because these reporters talk to all these people who rode out the storm and made it this time.

The one time a hurricane is coming at us as a Cat. 2 or such... I can see that being the one to kick up to a Cat. 4 in the final hours. Mother nature is playing games.

I agree--we should have to watch Anderson and Zarella dodging giant sheets of aluminum every time one threatens to know that it can really be dangerous. That and the Charley footage that was just unreal.

[Wacahootaman]

Ye notice that both Ivan and Dennis threatened Eglin Air Force Base and then weakened dramitically just before landfall?

Hmmmmmmmmm.

Recon the Special Ops dudes at Eglin had somethin to do wif this?

[joseph01]

It looks like the sun will be out shortly, down on the beaches.

[ncbird]

I believe I herd it was also high tide or close to it. Can anyone confirm?

[Hurricaneman]

Just past high tide

[The Big Dog]

Has anyone heard from the Dyn-O-Mat guy?

[Huckster]

Right now, he's working on a way to store dehydrated water.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I thought I would not have to hear of this idiot this season? He is about like Greatone.

[cajungal]

Right now, he's working on a way to store dehydrated water.

Huckster, how did you get that hurricane Andrew image under your name? It looks awesome! What part of Louisiana are your from? In that picture, the eyewall looks right under us and so perfectly defined.

[joseph01]

Has anyone heard from the Dyn-O-Mat guy?

After seeing what happened to Dennis, he'll probably claim he was in a plane circling Pensacola today.

[dhweather]

OT~ do you really think that it was that strong ?? or do we have serious errors in out recon obs WRT ground wind speed.

Recon was pretty accurate with the system. This system weakened quite a bit over the last eight hours.

A whole lot of dry air entrained itself into Dennis over that period - the SW quadrant is almost a naked area.

[MannyG]

I don't know why but I'm glad. Hmmm, how about shallow water close to the coast + the upwelling these superstorms cause hastening their demise before landfall.

[Huckster]

Right now, he's working on a way to store dehydrated water.

Huckster, how did you get that hurricane Andrew image under your name? It looks awesome! What part of Louisiana are your from? In that picture, the eyewall looks right under us and so perfectly defined.

I am from Baton Rouge. Here's the link for that picture...

http://www.voiceofthewetlands.com/hurri ... rew_th.gif

To make it your avatar, go to your profile and put that address into the "Link to off-site Avatar" box.

[LilNoles2005]

Actually there may be some major damage from the storm surge as far away as Apalachacola and St George Island which are more than 100 miles from landfall. I bet there was considerable damage to oceanfront property in the Cape San Blas area where many waterfront homes have been built in recent years.

The WC reported a storm surge of 10 feet for that area, mainly because of prolonged winds that came off the ocean. Where as there probably was very little storm surge on the west side of the eye do to the short time of onshore winds.

I can verify that there was *at least* a 9 foot storm surge for Wakulla County (at least for the Shell Point/Oyster Bay area), which is due south of Tallahassee.

[cajungal]

Right now, he's working on a way to store dehydrated water.

Huckster, how did you get that hurricane Andrew image under your name? It looks awesome! What part of Louisiana are your from? In that picture, the eyewall looks right under us and so perfectly defined.

I am from Baton Rouge. Here's the link for that picture...

http://www.voiceofthewetlands.com/hurri ... rew_th.gif

To make it your avatar, go to your profile and put that address into the "Link to off-site Avatar" box.

Oh, cool. I live in Terrebonne Parish just north of Houma. And in that picture Andrew's eyewall was right under us.

[Downdraft]

It's true many Gulf storms have weakened prior to landfall but let's never forget that lady named Camille. Along the Gulf coast every hurricane is still compared to her.

[crazycajuncane]

Has anyone heard from the Dyn-O-Mat guy?

After seeing what happened to Dennis, he'll probably claim he was in a plane circling Pensacola today.

I can hear the reports now.. Dyn-O-Mat saved the panhandle from a Cat.4 .. he'll be on the news in a few days.

[MGC]

Some storm weaken approaching land while others keep intensifying. A few of the intensifying hurricanes that come to mind are Betsy, Camille and Fredrick. I'm sure there are others. Just count our blessing that Opal, Lili, Ivan and now Dennis weakened......MGC

[Aslkahuna]

In the Philippines, we would explain the weakening of the typhoons before they coasted in as being due to land interaction while the weakening before landfall in mainland China was due to dry air entrainment. Another factor for land stations is that the cooling of the surface due to rain may actually keep the strong winds off the surface except during turbulent exchanges which would bring strong gusts.

Steve

[SouthernWx]

You haven't seen the worst damage yet. It will take time for those pictures to arrive into the media.

I agree.......this was still a powerful hurricane at landfall. The major reason it doesn't seem nearly as bad as Ivan is twofold:

1) Dennis moved inland over relatively unpopulated coastline......at least compared to what would have occurred if landfall happened over/ just west of Mobile Bay or Pensacola. I hear folks on tv saying "Dennis was nothing here in Pensacola compared to Ivan"......that's the difference in being west of a landfalling cat-3 and being just east of the eye.

2) While Dennis was still a powerful hurricane, the core region which formed AFTER passing over Cuba was small.......only 30 miles wide according to my calculations using radar. Even though overall Dennis is a large hurricane, the region where 100+ kt mph winds was very small, even while the hurricane was at peak intensity (125 kt/ 930 mb). Just as Andrew and Charley, a near miss meant far less wind and storm surge than unlucky communities only 30 miles down the beachfront.

Don't let anyone kid you.......a 943 mb hurricane is potent. Those NOAA research aircraft weren't making up data.......there were 125 kt winds measured at 8000' flight level as this hurricane made landfall; but ONLY in a very small area about 5-10 miles in width. My educated guess it underneath that small area of coastline, the damage is tremendous (and occurred between Navarre and Pensacola Beach....around longitude 86.8 to 86.9 W). I have considerable confidence from the KEVX nexrad velocity data and flight level wind data from NOAA and USAF reconnaisance aircraft that sustained winds in a small area of the east eyewall were at least 110 kts (127 mph) at time of landfall.

The fact remains Dennis is the most intense July hurricane of record for the U.S.......and the first major landfalling hurricane in July since 1936.

PW