5:30 PM TWO,Depression tonight or monday

[Guest]

What is the worst case scenario for Barbados with this system?

The present model run (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR) brings the system to about 105 miles SE of Barbados Wednesday afternoon and then straight across [the Windward Islands] (edit) as a strong tropical storm/weak cat 1 hurricane.

Of course these models change every run.

[Brent]

Another week of no sleep.

[abajan]

What is the worst case scenario for Barbados with this system?

The present model run (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR) brings the system to about 105 miles SE of Barbados Wednesday afternoon and then straight across Barbados as a strong tropical storm/weak cat 1 hurricane.

Of course these models change every run.

Thanks.

[SFloridaGirl]

:woo:

Another week of no sleep.

wow im really jumping up and down about that one..

[TampaFl]

BY THE WAY, TAKE THAT WPAC AND EPAC!!!!

[Skywatch_NC]

Regarding the next in line name: Emily...I'll always remember the 1993 Emily and the close call she gave to NC! I was living in a dorm-like building and going to a vocational training school in the eastern part of the state...and the great feeling of relief when she veered away.

Eric

[LCfromFL]

Looks like we're setting up for a back to back to back to back to back season.

I'll see about getting a couple of Starbuck's IV drips set up for Luis and Mike - forget the delivery....you guys need it mainlined!

[Weatherboy1]

...ATLANTIC TROPICS...
EASTERLY WAVE NEAR 11N 41W CONTS TO DEVELOP AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO
A DEPRESSION LATER TDA OR TOMORROW. ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CARRY
THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY W TO WNW AND TPC/HPC COORDINATION
TAKES THIS LOW INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES BY DAY 4 THU AND
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SERN BAHAMAS BY NEXT SUNDAY. SFC PROG
DEPICTIONS ARE CONSERVATIVE. SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES. A
FOLLOWING STRONG WAVE EASTWARD OF THIS LEAD SYSTEM HAS BEEN MODEL
FAVORITE OF THE TWO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IT ALSO MAY WELL
DEVELOP AS IN ENTERS MORE FAVORABLE CONDS.

Here's the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center's discussion on 5/potential Emily. The bottom line is it's just too early to say what will develop, and where it will go. My gut feeling is that we'll have another cane to deal with in 3-4 days taking a Dennis-type path, but farther north. Whether it will plow through the northern islands, northern Caribbean or north of the islands is key, and I just don't know what to think yet in that regard

-Mike

[cycloneye]

Agree with you.It's too early to say for sure where this system will be after 7 days as many factors may play a roll in terms of the movement and intensity.But for sure it will threat the Leeward islands as it is in a low latitud around 10-11n.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Do you think it will be upgraded at 11pm???

[cycloneye]

Do you think it will be upgraded at 11pm???

Close call but no.

[Brent]

Do you think it will be upgraded at 11pm???

I would say probably not.

Likely tomorrow though as long as it remains organized.

[MGC]

I'll keep my eye on this one while I clear out my garage from packing up for Dennis. It would have been nice to have a couple of days break between systems......MGC

[gkrangers]

I'll keep my eye on this one while I clear out my garage from packing up for Dennis. It would have been nice to have a couple of days break between systems......MGC

Well we'll be lucky if 98L is the only thing we have to deal with right now...not to get ahead of ourselves...but the globals develope the wave behind 98L much better than 98L.

[Brent]

I'll keep my eye on this one while I clear out my garage from packing up for Dennis. It would have been nice to have a couple of days break between systems......MGC

Well we'll be lucky if 98L is the only thing we have to deal with right now...not to get ahead of ourselves...but the globals develope the wave behind 98L much better than 98L.

FFFFRANKLIN BEFORE my birthday???

[gkrangers]

I'll keep my eye on this one while I clear out my garage from packing up for Dennis. It would have been nice to have a couple of days break between systems......MGC

Well we'll be lucky if 98L is the only thing we have to deal with right now...not to get ahead of ourselves...but the globals develope the wave behind 98L much better than 98L.

FFFFRANKLIN BEFORE my birthday???

Who the heck knows...just something to watch. Emily is pretty certain tho. I don't think we should talk Franklin for a few days.

[cccmachine]

Back from my nap.

Got a floater on her yet?

And you guys thought 04 was exciting.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Invest 98L
5pm pst/8pm est
7-10-2005

The LLC is still very well defined on quickscats. With the LLC at 10.5 north/41 west...A large area of convection has formed right over the center. It appears to have favable outflow to the north. I'v seen tropical depressions get upgraded with no quickscat data. But just one or two ship reports. Recon went in found no surface circ. This system they would be sure because if the quickscats show it its strong...

The hurricane models are moving northward to around 15 to 17 north as they cross the Leewards. Ship model makes this a hurricane of 71 knots at 120 hurricanes. The Gfdl has backed off to a tropical storm with a track about where the hurricane models are. The Gfs/Cmc shows about where the hurricane models show. Will the 12z Ecmwf takes this through the caribbean.

I think a westward track for the next 36 to 48 hours fellowed by a west-northwest or northwest track through out to 108 hours then turning more westward as it reachs near Purto Rirco. The water out there seems to be more then warm enough. With low upper level shear of 5 to 10 knots expected to hold in.

I expect with this data for this system to do this...
Now 25 mph
24 35 mph tropical depression
36 40 mph tropical storm
48 50 mph
60 60 mph
72 65 mph
84 70 mph Near Leewards....
96 75 mph hurricane
108 80 mph hurricane
120 nearing

Because of the outflow/Oreganizion of this system expect a normal upwards in overall winds over the forecast period. The system is also starting to form a well defined area of convection...

This is unoffical please see the nhc for offical information.


Forecaster Matthew

[cajungal]

So, looks like it could head to the GOM, too?

[yoda]

You could write a tad better Matt... but it looks good so far.