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At 11 Pm first advisory.
TD#5 forms,NONAME!!!
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cycloneye
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TD#5 forms,NONAME!!!
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jul 10, 2005 8:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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WeatherEmperor
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LSU2001
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She is an infant. But could grow into a full fledged B@@@ 
TIm
TIm
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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WeatherEmperor
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:This is Dennis little Girl. I was going to go to sleep tonight...But I'm a hard core tropical cyclone tracker...So Back to work.
Well if your gonna have a hard time sleeping tonight, do what Im gonna do. Take 3 sleeping pills tonight. Almost guaranteed to knock you out until tomorrow for sure!
<RICKY>
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What's really strange is SHIPS takes it to 70 kts but BAMD/BAMM would indicate a lot of shear.
BAMM is over Puerto Rico but BAMD skims the south edge of the Carribean....that much spread would indicate a lot of shear.
Based on the low latitude it appears to be forming at, and the initial due west motion, I suspect the globals that have 5 moving N of the Carribean or along the N edge may be a crock.....
ECMWF has it moving SOUTH of Cuba...I suspect this will be more realistic.
BAMM is over Puerto Rico but BAMD skims the south edge of the Carribean....that much spread would indicate a lot of shear.
Based on the low latitude it appears to be forming at, and the initial due west motion, I suspect the globals that have 5 moving N of the Carribean or along the N edge may be a crock.....
ECMWF has it moving SOUTH of Cuba...I suspect this will be more realistic.
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wx247
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Max Mayfield just confirmed this on CNN.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Weatherboy1
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GFDL forecasting 123 knots by end of the run ...
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2005071018-invest98l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Who the heck knows exactly what will happen with soon-to-be-designated TD5. But I'm not a big fan of this GFDL animation, which has a 140-ish mph hurricane just E of the SE Bahamas. And it APPEARS (though I'm not great at interpreting these maps) that it's showing a "linking" up of the Atlantic ridge and a high over the Gulf late in this run ... the same scenario that got Dennis into the Gulf. Still plenty of time and lots of model runs until the story is told on this puppy though.
-Mike
Who the heck knows exactly what will happen with soon-to-be-designated TD5. But I'm not a big fan of this GFDL animation, which has a 140-ish mph hurricane just E of the SE Bahamas. And it APPEARS (though I'm not great at interpreting these maps) that it's showing a "linking" up of the Atlantic ridge and a high over the Gulf late in this run ... the same scenario that got Dennis into the Gulf. Still plenty of time and lots of model runs until the story is told on this puppy though.
-Mike
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wxwatcher91
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