Emily Advisorys

[cycloneye]

Well I thougt that we would get a break but here we are with a new Cyclone.All advisorys as I did with Dennis will be posted at this thread.

[pcolaguy]

Can't wait! SHIP has it as tropical storm this time tomorrow. We shall see.

[Canelaw99]

TY Cyclone, you rock!!!

P.S: Can ya make sure there are no PR or S. FL threats Aug. 19-26/27? I'll be visiting y'all with hubby and the in-laws that week and would rather NOT experience a storm there, thank you very much LOL

[cycloneye]

:notworthy: TY Cyclone, you rock!!!

P.S: Can ya make sure there are no PR or S. FL threats Aug. 19-26/27? I'll be visiting y'all with hubby and the in-laws that week and would rather NOT experience a storm there, thank you very much LOL

Thanks for those words.Very good about your visit and hopefully all is tranquil by that time.

[Swimdude]

Cause' everyone here knows Cycloneye can change the weather.

[Canelaw99]

Cause' everyone here knows Cycloneye can change the weather.

That's what I'm hoping My first trip to PR was in January and it rained 6 of the 7 days I was there, and that was in the dry season! LOL I'm kinda hoping for a drought during the rainy season this time around

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Western Pacific/Eastern Pacific has been dead. So All we got is the Atlantic...

[wx247]

Great job being on top of things Luis. Hopefully we don't get too many storms going at one time... we won't be able to keep up with the sticky threads.

[Foladar]

Is the 11pm coming out for this one?
Saw Dennis was out already

Edit: Yep it's out, lol, lady on CNN just got the notice

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Five Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 03:00Z on July 11, 2005


Tropical depression center located near 10.8n 42.9w at 11/0300z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the west or 270 degrees at 10 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1010 mb
Max sustained winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 10.8n 42.9w at 11/0300z
at 11/0000z center was located near 10.8n 42.4w

forecast valid 11/1200z 11.0n 44.5w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 12/0000z 11.5n 46.7w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 12/1200z 12.1n 49.0w
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 20se 20sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 13/0000z 12.8n 51.7w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 0se 0sw 20nw.
34 kt... 50ne 30se 30sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 14/0000z 14.5n 57.5w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 15se 15sw 25nw.
34 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 15/0000z 16.5n 63.5w...near northern Lesser Antilles
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.

Outlook valid 16/0000z 19.5n 69.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 10.8n 42.9w

next advisory at 11/0900z

forecaster Stewart

[Brent]

Yikes...



Watch out islanders.

[cycloneye]

Yikes...



Watch out islanders.

I dont like it a bit.

[Tropicswatcher]

Puerto Rico here we go!!!

[Scorpion]

Hmmm. If that track holds things can get very interesting in my area. Hispaniola wont tear it a new one. This is 7 days out though.

[johngaltfla]

If that high builds back in, no break for Florida again I presume. This is getting real old. Fascinating to watch, but REAL old...

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN JUL 10 2005

...FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST OR ABOUT
1280 MILES...2055 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.8 N... 42.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Canelaw99]

Don't like that forecast track one bit myself

[Swimdude]

Here we go again. Numbers on the bottom right side of the screen are estimated winds in MPH. That would be, nearing hurricane status within 72 hours. Joy.

[Scorpion]

Dont like that. In that scenario it would peak close to shore. Which means littel chance of weakening.

[sweetpea]

I am not liking that either, my dad just got to PR last week on his annual 6 month visit, (picks the worst time of the year) and his is on the SE corner of the island. Hopefully that track is wrong.