Tropical Depression Five
July 11, 2005 1:00 am E
Unofficial Forecast #1
Mike Naso
The low pressure area in the Atlantic basin is now Tropical Depression Five. Currently moving west at 11 mph, that track
should continue, with a slight west-northwesterly component as it gains strength. Since I expect an intensification slightly
more than the NHC (which is the official source you should listen to) I expect TD-5 to gain more latitude than the NHC
expects. However, by 72 hours, the system should feel a weakness in the ridge to the north, which should pull it slightly more northwest. However, in a scenario all too familar from past hurricanes such as Andrew, Donna and Frances...the ridge should build back in, pushing the system on a more westerly course at the end of the track.
As for intensification, the system should be a tropical storm in 18-24 hours, and given only marginally favorable conditions with dry air, should not be a hurricane for at least 60 hours. After 60-72 hours, the upper level environment should be favorable with weak shear and a moist environment, that should allow strengthening to a hurricane. The GFDL takes the storm to a major hurricane near the Puerto Rico trench. While it may be possible down the road as the system moves west, I will go with a Category 1 hurricane north of Hispaniola, moving west in 120 hours.
Mike Naso
12 Hours: 10.9 N/ 44.8 W - 30 kt
24 Hours: 11.8 N/ 47.0 W - 35 kt
36 Hours: 12.9 N/ 49.1 W - 45 kt
48 Hours: 13.9 N/ 51.9 W - 55 kt
72 Hours: 15.8 N/ 57.2 W - 65 kt
96 Hours: 19.2 N/ 63.9 W - 70 kt
120 Hours: 20.9 N/ 69.8 W - 80 kt
