Td #5/Emily Forecast #1: Long way out there

[Josephine96]

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5
NJN WEATHER CENTER
1215 AM MON JULY 11TH 2005

Tropical Depression #5 formed late Sunday night and is moving on a due west course around 11mph. This is much slower than Dennis, which booked it through the Caribbean. Meanwhile, would be Emily is out in the Atlantic.

With very warm water, and not a lot of shear forecast in the immediate future, #5 should have no trouble becoming Emily and should also become a threat to the Islands by Wednesday or so..

TD 5 has the potential to build in a hurry, slow movemet, warm waters, little shear. All of those should help her along. This by the way is also obviously the quickest 5th storm in the history of the Atlantic Basin.

Would be Emily is expected to continue moving West, and maybe WNW. According to the NHC experimental 5 day outlook,Emily should be just north of the DR by late Friday. By then.. it'll also be nerve watching time on the Atlantic coast.. especially the magnet better known as Florida.

If the ridge holds, this could very well start another vicious cycle of a storm heading the Sunshine states' way but it's still way too early to speculate.

Here's my current 5 day forecast on would be Emily.
Today: Becoming Emily. Max Winds: 40 mph
Tuesday: Continuing to move West, growing in strength. Max Winds: 55 mph
Wednesday: Perhaps watches and warnings for the Islands. Max Winds: 70 mph
Thursday: Passing almost directly over Puerto Rico. Max Winds: 85 mph
Friday: Just to the north of the DR.. start watching SE USA. Max Winds: 95 mph

DISCLAIMER:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

AS Always.. comments are welcomed

[texasheat]

i thinks its going to the GOM

[Stormcenter]

I also think she is headed to the GOM but not as far Texas.
The central & NE GOM will be her finally resting ground. IMO

P.S. Everyone please don't take your boards down until at least Nov. 30th 2005.

[jhamps10]

I think it may be a Space Coast-Orlando problem. Maybe taking same path as Jeanne, but a little bit farther north. But I do think it will go into the GOM, and maybe threaten LA.

[jkt21787]

I didn't post this in Mike's forecast, but my gut tells me with a building ridge that this will be FL's storm (probably central or south) then into the GOM before recurving at some point, perhaps LA or even near Dennis's landfall point.

This has real potential to resemble Andrew in *track*. Please note I did not say intensity.

Its still way too soon to say though for both track and intensity. As we know many things can change. However more late nights can be expected for us all and certainly coastal residents in the coming week.

[Swimdude]

If this is the five [of FIVE!] GOM storms this season, and Houston is spared once again, i'm gonna go nutso.

[jkt21787]

I think it may be a Space Coast-Orlando problem. Maybe taking same path as Jeanne, but a little bit farther north. But I do think it will go into the GOM, and maybe threaten LA.

Fortunately things still appear on track for Discovery Wednesday so that Emily-to-be doesn't interfere. The scheduled window of opportunity doesn't close till near the end of the month but Emily would certainly close it before.

[Foladar]

I didn't post this in Mike's forecast, but my gut tells me with a building ridge that this will be FL's storm (probably central or south) then into the GOM before recurving at some point, perhaps LA or even near Dennis's landfall point.

This has real potential to resemble Andrew in *track*. Please note I did not say intensity.

Its still way too soon to say though for both track and intensity. As we know many things can change. However more late nights can be expected for us all and certainly coastal residents in the coming week.

Andrew should be a starred out word
Don't send this guy my way!

[TSmith274]

What will SST's in the GOM look like by the time Emily possibly makes an appearance? Will they recover, or will they be a thorn in Emily's side? Any guesses?

[jkt21787]

I didn't post this in Mike's forecast, but my gut tells me with a building ridge that this will be FL's storm (probably central or south) then into the GOM before recurving at some point, perhaps LA or even near Dennis's landfall point.

This has real potential to resemble Andrew in *track*. Please note I did not say intensity.

Its still way too soon to say though for both track and intensity. As we know many things can change. However more late nights can be expected for us all and certainly coastal residents in the coming week.

Andrew should be a starred out word
Don't send this guy my way!

Thats why I said not in intensity. It could be a track similar to A*****(:wink:) and be a TS. Not making any comparison to intensity whatsoever and again that should be noted.

[Fego]

Las hours show a WSW movement.. Hey tell me the truth.. do I need some sleep?

[Josephine96]

I think it's gonna be a Florida storm too.. The way the ridge is placed, combined with the track it appears to be on..

It my take an Erin of 95 or Jeanne track..

[cinlfla]

imo and this is only an opinion I think this storm if it developes will track more westerly towards cuba and end up in the Gulf again.

[cajungal]

It is way too early. If the ridge is strong by that time, maybe south Florida similar to where Andrew hit. Then, out into the Gulf and best chances for second strike are Florida Panhandle or just west of New Orleans. I am only saying that if it hits south Florida (anything south of Miami). Because usually storms that hit there end up striking either the Florida Panhandle or southeast Louisiana next.