Question for the stat guys out there. Im assuming so, but just to be sure.
Formation of a tropical storm today (July 11th) would be the 5th named storm this season. Is that the earliest for the 5th storm of the season to form as well?
Question for the Statisticians out there!
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senorpepr
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I'm actually in the process of expanding my climo spreadsheet from 50 years to 154 years. This will affect some of the climo that I post in the Tropical Analysis forum.
However, looking back over the past 50 years (2004-1955), here are the years that the fifth tropical storm formed in July...
1997 - 16 July
1966 - 22 July
1959 - 23 July
1995 - 31 July
The average formation date over the past 50 years for the fifth storm: 30 August.
However, looking back over the past 50 years (2004-1955), here are the years that the fifth tropical storm formed in July...
1997 - 16 July
1966 - 22 July
1959 - 23 July
1995 - 31 July
The average formation date over the past 50 years for the fifth storm: 30 August.
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wxwatcher91
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hmm... probably... not sure...
but here's a cool stat: today is the 41st day of the hurricane season and with Emily forming sometime today, that will make 5 in 41 days... about one named storm every 8 days... 183 days in the season and techniquely we could see 22 named storms by the end of the season
but here's a cool stat: today is the 41st day of the hurricane season and with Emily forming sometime today, that will make 5 in 41 days... about one named storm every 8 days... 183 days in the season and techniquely we could see 22 named storms by the end of the season
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weatherwindow
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senorpeppr et al....carried your check back to 1851 and found no fifth storm prior to 7/11. just an aside, it seems that nearly every busy season(defined as >12 ns), has a period of "hyper" development, lasting 4-8 weeks, which in turn produces >50% of the storm totals for that season. am in the process of analyzing the reanalysis data, to see if this idea is truly valid...regardless, 2005 is setting new standards for early season "hyper-activity".................rich
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