Emily Advisorys

[Swimdude]

So much for this NOT being a GOM season...

[P.K.]

000
WTNT45 KNHC 110831
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS NOW A RAGGED BANDING FEATURE OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE T2.0...I.E. 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING THROUGH AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS CAUSING THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO BE SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER WEAK SHEAR
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE
CENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE MOTION REMAINS 270/10.
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AND BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING
CURRENT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK OUTPUT.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 10.8N 43.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 11.1N 45.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 11.6N 48.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 12.1N 50.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/0600Z 12.6N 53.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 14/0600Z 14.5N 60.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0600Z 17.0N 66.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.5N 71.0W 70 KT...INLAND

[cycloneye]

[Amanzi]

Cyc... you keep a good eye on this one friend!

[Thunder44]

Their intenisty forecast is a joke. It's not going to be 70kts before it get to Hispanola and then still be that in Hispanola. It will be lucky to get out of there alive.

[cycloneye]

The track forecast will be adjusted a tad to the left at 11 AM.

[Zadok]

The track forecast will be adjusted a tad to the left at 11 AM.

Well I'm happy to hear that. Hopefully it will be a little more than a "tad".

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z MON JUL 11 2005


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 44.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 44.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 10.4N 46.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 10.8N 48.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 11.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.2N 55.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 16.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

[HURAKAN]

Now the track is much farther south, Dennis once again.

[cycloneye]

Yes I said it earlier a more left shift to track.

[chadtm80]

Trend Trend Trend Trend... Now maybe all those that posted in the poll that it would hit Eastern Florida would like to change there answer

[dhweather]

Now the track is much farther south, Dennis once again.

Gee, just dandy.

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 111449
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON JUL 11 2005

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1120 MILES...1800 KM... EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH
...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...10.3 N... 44.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

111441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...
WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION...ABOUT 80 NM TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TURNING.
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z SUGGESTED THAT THIS SMALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MAY MERELY BE A SWIRL EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ILL-DEFINED
BROADER LOW. IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT IS THE BROADER LOW THAT MAY
ULTIMATELY PREVAIL. RATHER THAN JERK THE TRACK BACK TO THE EAST TO
FOLLOW THE SWIRL...I PREFER TO FOLLOW THE BROADER SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME. THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF T2.0...ARE GOOD REASONS NOT TO
UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM.

WHILE THERE IS PRESENTLY SOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
WELL AS MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH REGARDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GIVEN THIS...SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL...WHICH
DEVELOPS THE DEPRESSION ONLY SLOWLY AT FIRST...CONTINUES TO MAKE
THE CYCLONE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE 270/10. SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND
BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS. IT IS PERHAPS
OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD ONLY A SO-SO YEAR
LAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL
SO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN
LAST YEAR...IS STRUGGLING A BIT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 10.3N 44.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 10.4N 46.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 10.8N 48.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 11.5N 52.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 12.2N 55.2W 50 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 61.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 16.5N 67.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 73.0W 70 KT

[Josephine96]

so much for all those who thought "Emily" wouldn't form lol..

[cycloneye]

Interesting things that Franklin said at discussion that all have to read.

[Brent]

Interesting.

[x-y-no]

Interesting things that Franklin said at discussion that all have to read.

Yes, I assumed that LLC we've all been looking at was the primary surface feature. His explanation for not upgrading makes good sense.

I think this forecast track may be a bit too far north in the vicinity of the islands and the eastern Caribbean. Certainly well within the realm of probability, though.

Jan

[Brent]

Track looks too far north IMO. Probably will go south of Hispanola and close to Jamaica... AGAIN.

[cycloneye]

What do all think about his line about NOGAPS being the best performer lately.