TD#5 not well organized this morning

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cycloneye
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TD#5 not well organized this morning

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:20 am

Image

THe low center looks semiexposed to the east of the convection as some easterly shear is blowing in the area.As long it stays that way we wont see this upgraded to a storm.But that can change quickly when the low is stacked with the MLC inside the convection.
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#2 Postby Skywatch_NC » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:26 am

We can all hope (and pray) that it stays in it's present condition.
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#3 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:29 am

Luis, looking at this on the floater loop, it looks to me that the LLC is still well inside the convection. Just on the east side. It doesn't look much exposed to me.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:29 am

You're very right. I was going to post about this.

The system has become sheared and it seems that dry air is making its presence felt. Since 1995 there have been SEVERAL tropical depressions develop in the Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles before August and only Bertha (1996) and Alex (1998) managed to become storms. It is very unusual to see development east of the Lesser Antilles before August for the problem this one's having.

We'll see how it holds itself together today. I think today is a key day for this system...
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#5 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:29 am

We're spoiled after Dennis. :D

For a depression, it ain't half bad.
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#6 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:31 am

Thunder44 wrote:Luis, looking at this on the floater loop, it looks to me that the LLC is still well inside the convection. Just on the east side. It doesn't look much exposed to me.


The question is if we STILL have the well-defined LLC that we saw yesterday. It doesn't look like it...
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:34 am

ROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 10.8N 43.6N AT 0900
UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. T.D. FIVE HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
9N42W-14N46W.

Well, the NHC thinks it's becoming btter organized and looking at the loops, it doesn't look bad at all.
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#8 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:34 am

BTW, the tropical depression has become linear this morning and convection has refired right along the wave axis. Signs that this one is not in good health. Don't be surprised to see it being downgraded to a tropical wave if this trend continues.

Eventually, it may reach even more favorable conditions, but for the time being, it is fighting for its life...
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#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:37 am

can I ask you what in God's name are you all looking at?

The LLC is VERY well defined without a doubt, more so than when Dennis formed
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#10 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:38 am

There is an area of fairly deep convection over or near the center. It has banding features. Its not a linear wave.
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:38 am

Derek Ortt wrote:can I ask you what in God's name are you all looking at?

The LLC is VERY well defined without a doubt, more so than when Dennis formed


Agree 100%
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#12 Postby wx247 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:38 am

Derek Ortt wrote:can I ask you what in God's name are you all looking at?

The LLC is VERY well defined without a doubt, more so than when Dennis formed


Derek's awake!!! :lol:
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#13 Postby ncweatherwizard » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:39 am

Hyperstorm wrote:BTW, the tropical depression has become linear this morning and convection has refired right along the wave axis. Signs that this one is not in good health. Don't be surprised to see it being downgraded to a tropical wave if this trend continues.

Eventually, it may reach even more favorable conditions, but for the time being, it is fighting for its life...


I'm thinking close to the same thing. You probably won't see it downgraded too soon to err on the side of caution. But the dry air hasn't really touched this storm yet; it doesn't look as if it has even restricted much outflow (well at least where there was outflow). But if the system keeps getting hit, it may open up within 48 hours before reaching the Caribbean; that would also mean that you would send a well-defined tropical wave on a much more southerly track that would probably face decent conditions in the western Caribbean, but that's another story for another day; we've got to figure out if this will intensify first.
The shear will let up eventually, and some systems this weak don't get much weaker due to dry air, so on that note, it may hold together. We'll see.. 8-)
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#14 Postby dhweather » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:40 am

This is a pretty well defined depression.
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#15 Postby ncweatherwizard » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:43 am

wx247 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:can I ask you what in God's name are you all looking at?

The LLC is VERY well defined without a doubt, more so than when Dennis formed


Derek's awake!!! :lol:


The LLC's is in good shape; it's everything else that might be problematic. I don't know exactly how long...I'd say maybe we should watch 24 hours, and see how it responds to the environment.
Last edited by ncweatherwizard on Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:43 am

gkrangers wrote:We're spoiled after Dennis. :D

For a depression, it ain't half bad.


I agree.
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#17 Postby chris07dabomb » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:45 am

Hey I am new to all this , but does it look like TD 6 could be forming east of TD 5 ?
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gkrangers

#18 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:45 am

chris07dabomb wrote:Hey I am new to all this , but does it look like TD 6 could be forming east of TD 5 ?
Its an area to watch.
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#19 Postby Hyperstorm » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:46 am

Sorry to disagree, but when a depression has thunderstorms re-firing in a linear way north of the presumed LLC, it is showing signs of disorganization. The same thing happened last year with Bonnie when it was declared a depression east of the Lesser Antilles.

I agree that convection is still found near the presumed LLC, but it is NOT becoming organized...
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#20 Postby chris07dabomb » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:46 am

Ok, thanks for your opinion.
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