Emily Advisorys

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ncweatherwizard
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#61 Postby ncweatherwizard » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:04 am

Brent wrote:Track looks too far north IMO. Probably will go south of Hispanola and close to Jamaica... AGAIN.


A lot of that depends on how strong it gets.
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#62 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:05 am

ncweatherwizard wrote:
Brent wrote:Track looks too far north IMO. Probably will go south of Hispanola and close to Jamaica... AGAIN.


A lot of that depends on how strong it gets.


Bingo.
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donsutherland1
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#63 Postby donsutherland1 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:05 am

Luis,

At this time, I believe a track closer to that of Lili (2002) than Frances (2004) is more likely. Something in between, at least into the Caribbean, will likely prevail. Then, TD5 (likely Emily) could pose a Gulf threat. Time will tell and I'm certainly not ruling out options right now.

Lili (2002):
Image

Frances (2004):
Image
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#64 Postby dhweather » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:12 am

donsutherland1 wrote:Luis,

At this time, I believe a track closer to that of Lili (2002) than Frances (2004) is more likely. Something in between, at least into the Caribbean, will likely prevail. Then, TD5 (likely Emily) could pose a Gulf threat. Time will tell and I'm certainly not ruling out options right now.

Lili (2002):
Image

Frances (2004):
Image


Don, looking at the Lili path makes you wonder, what is going on around Jamaica?

Lili, Ivan, and Dennis all danced around the island.
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#65 Postby drudd1 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:18 am

chadtm80 wrote:Trend Trend Trend Trend... Now maybe all those that posted in the poll that it would hit Eastern Florida would like to change there answer ;-)


While I wouldn't expect an Eastern Florida hit, nobody needs to change their answer, because at this stage nobody has an answer. Too many variables and unknowns for a storm this far out. Predicting a landfall at this point is a guess, and nothing more.
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Scorpion

#66 Postby Scorpion » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:20 am

If this storm heads into the Caribbean, I don't expect it to get very strong. Two storms in a row cannot strike the same place. Emily will be anything but Dennis. I remember last year people were concerned Earl was following on the heels of Charley. That wasnt the case.
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#67 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:25 am

Uhhh Cindy and Dennis just hit the same place.
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#68 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:28 am

Maybe I'm missing something...

Arlene hit Pensacola, Dennis hit just 5 miles east of there.
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gkrangers

#69 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:31 am

Brent wrote:Maybe I'm missing something...

Arlene hit Pensacola, Dennis hit just 5 miles east of there.
Yeah...your right...but Cindy wasn't far from Pensacola at all.
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#70 Postby Scorpion » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:35 am

Not at a similar intensity though.
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#71 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:41 am

Scorpion wrote:Not at a similar intensity though.
Yep..but 3 of the first 4 storms all hit within about 50 miles of each other?

So, storms can hit the same areas if a similar pattern exists. Thats all I'm sayin.
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#72 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:43 am

Scorpion wrote:If this storm heads into the Caribbean, I don't expect it to get very strong. Two storms in a row cannot strike the same place.


And last year, Frances and Jeanne struck within, what?, 20 miles or less of each other....it's been a pretty strange set-up last year and this year...
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#73 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:50 am

Canelaw99 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:If this storm heads into the Caribbean, I don't expect it to get very strong. Two storms in a row cannot strike the same place.


And last year, Frances and Jeanne struck within, what?, 20 miles or less of each other....it's been a pretty strange set-up last year and this year...


...and of similar intensity. 90 kt for Frances and 100 kt for Jeanne.

Actually... they both hit the EXACT same spot... Sewall's Point.
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gkrangers

#74 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:54 am

Brent wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:If this storm heads into the Caribbean, I don't expect it to get very strong. Two storms in a row cannot strike the same place.


And last year, Frances and Jeanne struck within, what?, 20 miles or less of each other....it's been a pretty strange set-up last year and this year...


...and of similar intensity. 90 kt for Frances and 100 kt for Jeanne.

Actually... they both hit the EXACT same spot... Sewall's Point.
EXACT same spot was enormously creepy.
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#75 Postby Scorpion » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:57 am

Jeanne was 105.
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#76 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:15 am

Emily will give those waters that Dennis just went over at least 7 days to warm back up.

What does it look like over the US next week? -any troughs or other saving graces developing or expected to?
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#77 Postby duris » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:18 am

gkrangers wrote:Uhhh Cindy and Dennis just hit the same place.


I don't disagree with the premise of hurricanes hitting in the same places or close, but I think Cindy made landfall in LA? Quite a bit from Pensacola as these things go.
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gkrangers

#78 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:21 am

Considering the amount of shoreline we have, it was a close landfall, in my opinion.
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#79 Postby duris » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:25 am

gkrangers wrote:Considering the amount of shoreline we have, it was a close landfall, in my opinion.


So close counts for hand grenades AND hurricanes? :D Hence the reason New Orleanians freak out when the NGC is affected. We're so used to driving a couple of hours to the beaches in AL and FL that we know its close. But those couple hundred miles obviously make a huge difference for us. (And probably for those more meteorologically inclined as to what is close).
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#80 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 11:38 am

Canelaw99 wrote:
Scorpion wrote:If this storm heads into the Caribbean, I don't expect it to get very strong. Two storms in a row cannot strike the same place.


And last year, Frances and Jeanne struck within, what?, 20 miles or less of each other....it's been a pretty strange set-up last year and this year...


Try a .25 mile...I live in between where they made landfall
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