TD#5 not well organized this morning

[Derek Ortt]

bonnie never had a circ there.

this is CLEARLY a LLC that is on the verge of developing. The center though is southnof the NHC position

[perk]

I agree with Derek,i just looked at the water vapor loop and i saw little or no shear affecting TD#5.It appears to be in pretty decent shape to me.

[chris07dabomb]

how do you post pics on here?

[Hyperstorm]

Bonnie had a LLC, but it was WAY before it was declared a depression. When it was declared a depression, it had already lost its LLC and I noted it in this same message board. Many didn't believe it and a while later, it was declared a wave.

The system has problems, but I'm not saying it is already done with...

[ncweatherwizard]

Bottom line perhaps: The LLC is alive and well, but the depression as a whole is not very well-organized... maybe agreements or disagreements... Sounds good to me...

[gkrangers]

The NHC states in the discussion a broad LLC is likely present, and we are seeing a smaller swirl off to the eastern side of the depression.

Its not very well organized, but its still a depression, and slow strengthening is expected for the next few days.

[cycloneye]

All read the interesting discussion at advisory thread.

[MWatkins]

Patience, young Skywalker.

I really don’t believe we will see significant development from this system until it passes 50W where thermodynamics improve…and the water is warmer. After that time…I think we should see this come together quickly. There are some arguments for the system not dissolving into thin air:

1. Low level cloud banding features clearly show a closed low is in place. It may be broad as the NHC mentioned in the 11AM but the circulation is there. And in terms of the low level cloud fields it is impressive.

2. The system is not zooming to the west at 20 knots like we have seen in the past with other storms under a strong ridge. The concern about the system opening up into a wave is very small right now as the translational speed is not an issue.

3. The GFDL isn’t dropping it like a hot potato.

It would be nice to see this go away…but unfortunately…it’s probably not going to.

MW

[gkrangers]

Go to sleep mike. Go to sleep.

-greg

[caribepr]

For down island people (Martinique, Dominica, etc), hope it stays slow (hope it DOES dissolve but...I'm not thinking that will happen) going through there.

[Hyperstorm]

Bottom line perhaps: The LLC is alive and well, but the depression as a whole is not very well-organized... maybe agreements or disagreements... Sounds good to me...

There is no such thing as "a depression as a whole is not very well-organized, but the LLC is" because the LLC is the depression itself. So, if the depression "as a whole" is not organized, the LLC isn't any better. As I said, the LLC is not AS well-defined as yesterday and it looks more like a swirl. It could definitely become better defined shortly, but for the time being is not.

NHC agrees with the assessment that it is not well organized, so hopefully this should put a rest on the debate...

[gkrangers]

Theres a difference between a broad LLC and a linear wave.

[Hyperstorm]

Theres a difference between a broad LLC and a linear wave.

I guess I spoke too soon and is not over, is it?

I never said that it was a linear wave. I pointed out the fact that the LLC is not well-defined and convection is firing in a linear way north of the LLC along the wave axis (a depression is basically a strong wave with a LLC). I pretended to note that if the current trends continue it will eventually be diffused into a wave and will have to be downgraded. Never in my posts, I mentioned that it was already a wave.

[Fego]

Wave or TD... what do you see from this WV Sat, in terms of movement?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[gkrangers]

west

[Brent]

Looks pretty organized IMO... my gut says south of PR and Hispanola, but that's WAY down the road.

[Hyperstorm]

It appears that the this morning's trends will not continue. Looking at the latest 2-3 satellite images, the system appears to be slowly becoming better organized again, with more turning evident on satellite underneath the main ball of convection. We need to get rid of that linear convection to its north and here we go again.

It is evident that the system has a very TINY LLC and any stronger than average shear will cause more problems to it.

For the time being, it appears to be becoming slightly better organized again...

[Patrick99]

Looks pretty organized IMO... my gut says south of PR and Hispanola, but that's WAY down the road.

Yeah, my gut says south of Hispaniola, and a persistent west motion....sounds familiar....just don't think it will go north that soon. The newly knighted NOGAPS is probably right on the money.

[cycloneye]

I posted at title of thread I posted less organized This Morning.By the afternoon things can change quickly so we have to watch what occurs later in the day.

[caribepr]

And watch we shall Cycloneye! NHC and you agreed on all important counts