Where is TD#5 headed?

[Big-Iguana]

Thru D.R/Haiti then on towards Naples, Florida....

[jrod]

I think the models might be off to the south right now. This is because there was a little drift to the south with TD. 5 and that data was put in the models. Now the TD appears to be on a steady WNW motion so I think when the models run again they will be shifted to the north again. There is just so much ocean for this to travel over before it is a threat to make a prediction. With that in mind I think it will be a threat for the E. Florida in a about a week.


Storms that visit Haiti tend to visit Florida too. David '79, Georges, and Jeanne are some past examples.

[Patrick99]

Maybe this will be a Straits Runner like my all time favorite track, the great Key West hurricane of 1919:

<img src = "http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1919/2/track.gif" />

[wxman57]

Here's a recent shot of TD 5 using McIdas. I think the center is on the left side of that big blob of convection:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/emily9.gif">

[Scorpion]

Ive never seen a hurricane move anywhere but north in the GOM. That scenario would be interesting.

[EDR1222]

I think if it takes a more northerly route, it could be headed toward the Carolinas.

[vbhoutex]

Ive never seen a hurricane move anywhere but north in the GOM. That scenario would be interesting.

Where have you been the last few years? Earl went West across the GOM. Bonnnie, not a hurricane went East last year. Alicia in 1983 went West and then turned into SE TX. Claudette went NW then WNW into the TX coastal bend.

[N2Storms]

I actually think that this will be a Louisiana storm with landfall somewhere along the Central to Eastern Louisiana coastline. I have no meteorlogical data to support my feeling other than just a hunch based on what data I've seen thus far with respect to the strong high pressure that is forecast to extend well into the Eastern GOMEX...

[Scorpion]

I love "gut feelings". They are almost always wrong. Fact is this thing is getting stronger and will likely be a TS by 5 and 45-55 knots tomorrow. This is much further west than Dennis and is already gaining latitude. I believe this will pass over the islands or a little bit above them.

[vbhoutex]

I love "gut feelings". They are almost always wrong. Fact is this thing is getting stronger and will likely be a TS by 5 and 45-55 knots tomorrow. This is much further west than Dennis and is already gaining latitude. I believe this will pass over the islands or a little bit above them.

I do not think it is gaining latitude, but I have not been watching it all day. I think what some think is a gain in latitude(which I guess it technically is)is actually the LLCC reforming under the stronger convection to the WNW of where the LLCC was when it was visible earlier today. Looks to me like it is still going West. I'd say 50/50 on North or South of PR.

[Sanibel]

It's gaining latitude.


If you look at the striated surface clouds in the tropical flow ahead of it they bend north towards the Lessers. Cycloneye should have some live reports for us...

[Brent]

Ive never seen a hurricane move anywhere but north in the GOM. That scenario would be interesting.

Gilbert.... Allen... Claudette... I could go on.

[Steve]

80% of the posters here will choose a favorable scenario for their own personal excitement. The other 20% are the logcial ones.

How's this? I have NO IDEA where TD #5 will end up .

Steve

[patsmsg]

I think if it takes a more northerly route, it could be headed toward the Carolinas.

As do I.

[texasheat]

I think if it takes a more northerly route, it could be headed toward the Carolinas.

As do I.

id have to disagree.. all the models point it to the GOM.. and they predict a high to be over fl/al/ms/la leaving TX open this will be a texas storm in my opionon.

DISCLAMER. THIS IS NOT A NHC SUGGESTED MY OPIONON DO NOT USE IT AS ANY EVACUTATUION ETC