TD 5 becoming better organized

#21 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:39 pm

dwg71 wrote:11AM position 10.3N 44.7W
Dvorak 12:45 10.7N 45.3W

That shows .4N and .6W or a 305 heading (approx)

Well the later point is a satellite estimate; center's broad, so it may be a little inconsistent with what NHC is tracking.

Scott

wayoutfront · #22 Postby **wayoutfront** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:43 pm

I see a belly button in TD5 :lol:

also can someone tell me what is going on, off the coast of central america? . In the loop it looks like that blob is splitting with one part rotating North and the other west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

gkrangers · #23 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:45 pm

Just looks like a blob..

dwg71 · #24 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:45 pm

Agreed, but NHC used a sat estimate as well. I think its even further North. 11.4N 45.4W is my guess.

Scorpion · #25 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:45 pm

Dang that is one giant blob.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #26 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:45 pm

It really looks like a tropical storm now. Look at that outflow froming on the northwest quad. That is classic. This will be upgraded at 5pm hopefully.

Scorpion · #27 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 1:46 pm

I agree, it should be upgraded.

ThunderMate · #28 Postby **ThunderMate** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:01 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This storm is now Tropical Storm Emily without officially being named by NHC due to their 6 hour updates. Looks about 45-50 mph now with a little jog to the north. A Westward movement is still expected over today and tomorrow a WNW track is expected to take over. If Emily continues to develope a Cat-1 is definately not out of the question for tomm. at this time. Also remember the heating of the day is helping this system develope. 1933 is coming back from the dead! Only 2 hours left before next NHC update. Everyone buckle in and watch.

ThunderMate

#29 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:02 pm

Definitely is a different dog than we were hunting this morning.

Looks to me like the LLCC reformed under the strong convection. I think that is why some think it has a "northern" component. IMO, it is still moving W. This one could be off to the races, especially with the DVORAK No's.

GalvestonDuck · #30 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:08 pm

I have a headache now.

Sanibel · #31 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:11 pm

From what it's doing right now I'm not sure if the original track wasn't correct?

Almost a guarantee of hurricane from present form. 2005!

dwg71 · #32 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:14 pm

18Z models have shifted slightly north, but I still thing the initialization is way off. Too far south.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

x-y-no · #33 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:16 pm

Latest tropical guidance not looking so good for Hispaniola ...

x-y-no · #34 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:17 pm

dwg71 wrote:18Z models have shifted slightly north, but I still thing the initialization is way off. Too far south.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Oops ... didn't see this post. :-)

Website · #35 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:17 pm

Great... another Jeanne. :roll:

Only stronger.

#36 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:24 pm

ok, technical help here - I see the sfwmd maps y'all posted, but on my computer, they're initializing below Puerto Rico, so the plots extend through Mexico. LOL Now, these have worked fine before (all last week for Dennis, and when TD 5 was being born Sunday), and I've tried refreshing, but to no avail. Any suggestions??? TY

Website · #37 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:27 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:ok, technical help here - I see the sfwmd maps y'all posted, but on my computer, they're initializing below Puerto Rico, so the plots extend through Mexico. LOL Now, these have worked fine before (all last week for Dennis, and when TD 5 was being born Sunday), and I've tried refreshing, but to no avail. Any suggestions??? TY

That is bizarre.

Try the direct link, put this in your address bar: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

#38 Postby **Canelaw99** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:30 pm

TY Brent - typing it in works...for some reason the links aren't working right. I kinda like the track the links show me though LOL

Nimbus · #39 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:37 pm

Still looks like a tumbleweed to me.
The center axis looks to be down near 10N below the current blob of convection.
Does anyone see a ridge just to the west of TD5's current position?
I was looking at the water vapor loop and it looks like TD5 will be moving into a more favorable environment as it gets under the eastern edge of that ridge.

dwg71 · #40 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:39 pm

Nimbus wrote:Still looks like a tumbleweed to me.
The center axis looks to be down near 10N below the current blob of convection.
Does anyone see a ridge just to the west of TD5's current position?
I was looking at the water vapor loop and it looks like TD5 will be moving into a more favorable environment as it gets under the eastern edge of that ridge.

10N??? Not as I see it, LLC is north of 11N. Its been heading NNW to NW for 12 hours now.

TD 5 becoming better organized

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