MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TexasStooge
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 38127
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
Contact:

#241 Postby TexasStooge » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:01 pm

Image

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SRN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 051740Z - 052015Z
   
   WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL. A WW COULD BE
   REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FEEDING NWD E OF
   LOW CENTER...WITH DEWPOINTS OF 75-80. IN ADDITION...SOME HEATING WAS
   OCCURRING AT MIDDAY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN AL WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. 
   
   AREA VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE WEAK TO MODERATE LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR...WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 15-25 KTS...AND 0-1 SRH VALUES
   GENERALLY AROUND 25-50 M2/S2 ONSHORE.  HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE
   LIKELY STRONGER FARTHER SW CLOSER TO LOW CENTER.
   THEREFORE...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AS
   TROPICAL LOW CENTER NEARS THE COAST. IF WIND PROFILES INCREASE...A
   TORNADO WATCH WOULD BE LIKELY.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
   
   30458711 31208721 31328824 31118941 30439039 30079032
   28908928 29308878 29768795 29808696
0 likes   
Weather Enthusiast since 1991.
- Facebook
- Twitter

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#242 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:37 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO NERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 051834Z - 051930Z

Image

POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IS INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AND A WW WILL BE REQUIRED BY
20Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CO
FRONT RANGE SWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE IN
NRN NM. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN WNWLY MEAN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EWD
ACROSS WRN INTO CNTRL CO...WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
DEVELOPMENT. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING. MODIFICATION OF 18Z DEN SOUNDING FOR SURFACE
CONDITIONS AT LIC YIELDS SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND A WEAKENING
CAP.

GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS ON LOCAL VADS/VWPS...EXPECT
DEVELOPING STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SUPERCELLS APPEAR
LIKELY WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#243 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jul 05, 2005 1:38 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...VA/NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 051801Z - 051930Z

Image

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
MOST INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

APPEARS TWO REGIMES MAY FOCUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FIRST IS ALONG AND E
OF A PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF MRB TO W OF RIC TO E
OF RWI. A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED
E OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN TSTM
ACTIVITY FROM NEAR RIC TO W OF ORF TO E OF RWI. MOREOVER...MORE SLY
SURFACE WINDS OVER ERN VA/NC WHEN COUPLED WITH MODEST /I.E. 20-25
KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...RELATIVELY
HIGH WBZH OF 12-13 KFT WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE MELTING.

THE SECOND REGIME IS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN VA/NC EWD INTO
THE PIEDMONT REGION WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ERN KY/TN. WHILE
DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY ARE COMPARATIVELY LOWER THAN
POINTS TO THE E...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK
DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP FOCUS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A GREATER THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL WITH
THESE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#244 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jul 05, 2005 2:23 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY INTO WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 051853Z - 052030Z

Image

APPEARS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA AND A WW WILL BE REQUIRED BEFORE 20Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW TSTMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITH ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS
ALONG LEE TROUGH NE OF CPR SWD TO CYS. 18Z RAP SOUNDING SHOWS THAT
AIR MASS OVER WRN SD HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH LIKELY A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WWD
INTO ERN WY. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH TSTMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER ERN WY INTO WRN SD.

MODEST /20-25 KT/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SLY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER
WINDS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#245 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jul 06, 2005 8:32 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS/CENTRAL AND SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SWRN
AND WRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 610...

VALID 061248Z - 061345Z

Image

THREAT FOR TORNADOES TO CONTINUE ACROSS WW 610 THIS MORNING. RADAR/
SATELLITE TRENDS WITH T.S. CINDY SUGGEST A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN AL...FL
PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF WRN/SWRN GA.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A SERIES OF DISCRETE STORMS ALONG THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF T.S. CINDY...WITH
THIS BAND EXTENDING FROM MONROE COUNTY AL SWD ACROSS THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NRN GULF. RADAR DATA ALSO SHOWED LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION WITH EACH OF THESE STORMS. THE NRN MOST STORMS WITHIN THIS
CONVECTIVE BAND HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK NWD INTO THE
EXTENSIVE RAIN SHIELD SPREADING INLAND IN ADVANCE OF CINDY.
HOWEVER...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF AL AND THE
FL PANHANDLE...AND INLAND ACROSS SRN AL THIS MORNING. LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL
FOR T.S. TORNADOES.

VIS IMAGERY INDICATED THE STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING/BEST REGION FOR
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE NWD
ACROSS SERN AL INTO SWRN GA. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE STORMS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE BAND....WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING TREND FOR TORNADOES LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#246 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:38 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1674
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 061823Z - 062030Z

Image

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WIND THE
PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WWD ACROSS SERN TX
WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TX. THE AIR MASS
HAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND
MAY DESTABILIZE FURTHER WITH HEATING. WITH NO CIN PRESENT...STORMS
WILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND/OR WITHIN DEEPENING SFC
TROUGH. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK SHEAR PROFILES...THUS PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS GIVEN VERY WARM AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#247 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:38 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL INTO SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 061851Z - 062015Z

Image

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH ADDITIONAL DEEPENING CUMULUS E OF 4CR.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS LARGELY IN THE 50S
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. PROFILERS FROM TUCUMCARI AND WHITE
SANDS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES CONSIDERABLY WITH SWD
EXTENT...SUGGESTING STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR AND GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED. THE STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...HOWEVER ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OWING TO THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#248 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:39 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1676
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AL INTO W-CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 611...

VALID 061910Z - 062015Z

Image

A HEIGHTENED THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM MGM TO CSG.

AS OF 1901Z...LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED
IN LARGER PRECIPITATION REGION OVER ELMORE...MONTGOMERY AND MACON
COUNTIES IN AL. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED
INVOF A WARM FRONT OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE EXTENDING FROM
REMNANT CINDY CIRCULATION SW OF SEM ENEWD TO N OF MCN. ENVIRONMENT
ALONG/JUST N OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
250-350 M2/S2 /PER LOCAL VWPS/.

EXPECT THIS FAVORABLE REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NNEWD WITH TIME IN ADVANCE OF
MIGRATORY CIRCULATION...POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO
WATCH OVER NERN AL INTO NWRN GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#249 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jul 07, 2005 8:16 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN GA INTO WRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SC/NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 617...

VALID 071243Z - 071315Z

Image

NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON TO REPLACE VALID PORTION OF WW
617 AND EXTEND ENE INTO NC.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY
SUGGESTED THE CENTER OF T.D. CINDY WAS LOCATED OVER NRN GA /TO THE N
OF ATL/ WITH A CONTINUED NEWD TRACK EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS FAR WRN
NC. A WARM/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM CINDY TO WRN SC NEAR
ANDERSON... AND THEN EXTENDED NEWD ALONG THE PIEDMONT REGION OF
SC/NC INTO CENTRAL VA. AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS UNDER WAY ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN SC INTO PARTS OF NC...GENERALLY ALONG/E OF THE WARM
FRONT. THIS DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH 55 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS...SUPPORTING STRONG EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASING
TREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER SC/NC. DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM OF CINDY INTO NC FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF
TORNADOES.
0 likes   

User avatar
TexasStooge
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 38127
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
Contact:

#250 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Jul 07, 2005 10:54 am

Image

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0933 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071433Z - 071630Z
   
   STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ESEWD
   THROUGH E CNTRL TX. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   THIS MORNING A SMALL MCS WAS LOCATED OVER N CNTRL TX JUST W OF THE
   DALLAS AREA. ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM DALLAS SWWD TO
   NEAR LLANO. ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT AROUND 30 KT. STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE DOWNSTREAM
   DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV
   ACCOMPANYING THE MCS. VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
   AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
   NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. POSSIBLE
   LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE WEAK AMBIENT FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR.
   HOWEVER...VWP DATA SUGGEST A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE
   SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV OVER N CNTRL TX. MULTICELL CONVECTION WITH
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/07/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   30929758 31359741 32039694 32749658 32489524 31189507
   30489596 30519709
0 likes   
Weather Enthusiast since 1991.
- Facebook
- Twitter

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#251 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jul 07, 2005 12:47 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1690
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SC THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NC AND SWRN THROUGH S
CNTRL VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 618...

VALID 071633Z - 071830Z

Image

THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
BEST POTENTIAL EXPECTED FROM WRN/W CNTRL NC THROUGH SW VA NEXT FEW
HOURS.

LATE THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.S.
CINDY WAS LOCATED OVER SWRN NC AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. WARM FRONT
EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NCNTRL NC. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS WRN NC INTO SWRN VA JUST NE OF THE LOW CENTER
ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FROM WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE BACKED
TO ELY. THIS AXIS OF STRONG SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO N CNTRL NC AND S CNTRL VA. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WRN NC SWD THROUGH WRN SC. GREATEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL WITH STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE AS STORMS LIFT NWD
AND INTERACT WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT.
VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SPREADING NWD THROUGH
MUCH OF CNTRL NC E OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. INCREASED SURFACE HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#252 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Jul 07, 2005 12:48 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 071717Z - 071845Z

Image

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FROM
NERN NC THROUGH SERN VA THIS AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR
A WW.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM SERN VA INTO NERN NC IN
VICINITY OF A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG...BUT WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES MAY IMPROVE FURTHER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS REMNANTS OF CINDY CONTINUE NEWD. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
0 likes   

User avatar
TexasStooge
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 38127
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
Contact:

#253 Postby TexasStooge » Thu Jul 07, 2005 2:10 pm

Image

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WY AND SD BLACK HILLS REGION / WRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071901Z - 072030Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE NEEDED NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
   
   TCU DEVELOPING OVER BLACK HILLS WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. MODIFIED
   RAP SOUNDING INDICATES CAPPING IS GONE...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY
   PERSIST AS THEY MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. MORNING LBF
   SOUNDING INDICATES LARGER MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAN RAP
   WITH 850 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 13C. GIVEN CONTINUED MOISTURE
   ADVECTION...SURFACE HEATING...AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
   PLACE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS
   IN PLACE...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW SLOW STORM MOTIONS...WITH
   SPLITTING CELLS POSSIBLE. DECREASING SUB-CLOUD LAYER RH MAY ALLOW
   FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/07/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...UNR...
   
   44560433 45430355 45490231 43100123 43060212 43110365
   43680390
0 likes   
Weather Enthusiast since 1991.
- Facebook
- Twitter

User avatar
TexasStooge
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 38127
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
Contact:

#254 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:47 am

Image

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 627...
   
   VALID 091550Z - 091745Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE
   FL PENINSULA. THE GREATEST THREAT NEXT FEW HOURS APPEARS TO BE OVER
   SRN AND CNTRL FL...BUT THE GREATER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   LATE THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED ABOUT
   160 MI OFF THE S FL COAST AND IS MOVING NWWD AT AROUND 12 KT. SEE
   LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR MORE INFORMATION ON DENNIS. OUTER
   RAINBANDS FROM DENNIS ARE LIFTING NWD THROUGH SRN AND S CNTRL FL AND
   WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO CNTRL FL THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR EXISTS NE OF THE CENTER OVER MUCH OF SRN FL WITH ELY LOW LEVEL
   FLOW VEERING AND INCREASING TO 50+ KT THROUGH 1 KM. SATELLITE DATA
   IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME BREAKS BETWEEN THE BANDS WHICH WILL AID IN
   SURFACE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. STORMS MAY THEREFORE UNDERGO
   SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...
   
   24748114 25918164 27218256 27958257 28008176 25817982
0 likes   
Weather Enthusiast since 1991.
- Facebook
- Twitter

User avatar
TexasStooge
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 38127
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
Contact:

#255 Postby TexasStooge » Sat Jul 09, 2005 11:47 am

Image

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY...CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 091620Z - 091815Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN NY THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PA AND NRN AND
   CNTRL NJ. ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
   OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NY DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD
   WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS FEATURE. MID
   LEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 6 KM FROM -14 TO -16 C IN VICINITY OF THE
   UPPER LOW...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOW 60S WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO
   2000 J/KG WILL BE LIKELY BY MID AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE ALREADY
   DEVELOPING ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM
   NWRN PA THROUGH SRN NY...AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT
   DEVELOPS SEWD TOWARD THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY AND GENERALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR
   HAIL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   41847754 41837590 41787356 40747367 39827462 39897708
   40737800
0 likes   
Weather Enthusiast since 1991.
- Facebook
- Twitter

User avatar
TexasStooge
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 38127
Joined: Tue Mar 25, 2003 1:22 pm
Location: Irving (Dallas County), TX
Contact:

#256 Postby TexasStooge » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:41 am

Image

Code: Select all

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN AL/CENTRAL AND NRN GA/UPSTATE SC/FAR SWRN
   NC/SRN AND SERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 111513Z - 111615Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
   MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN GA/FAR ERN AL AND
   NWD TO UPSTATE SC TO PARTS OF SRN-SERN TN.  A WW MAY BE NEEDED
   ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS
   OVER FAR NERN MS ALONG THE TN BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
   ENEWD ACROSS SRN TN INTO FAR WRN NC.  SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS/ZONES
   OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE CENTER OF DENNIS
   ACROSS SRN/SERN TN INTO ERN GA AND SWD JUST E OF THE AL/GA BORDER.
   SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
   AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.  AREA VWPS PER WSR-88DS SHOW
   STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS FROM CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO TN WITH 0-1 KM
   SRH VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2...SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL ROTATION...
   ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND WARM FRONT.
   EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN AL INTO WRN/NRN GA AND
   MIDDLE/ERN TN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT...AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/11/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   35938424 35758322 35338235 34648183 33568210 32278280
   31598383 31448476 31998532 32918550 34338579 35998682
   36098539
0 likes   
Weather Enthusiast since 1991.
- Facebook
- Twitter

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#257 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:28 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 111900Z - 112030Z

Image

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SSW
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN ME THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ISOLATED
THREAT AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...WW IS
NOT EXPECTED.

18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ORIENTED
NEARLY N-S ALONG THE ERN ME/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH A WARM
FRONT/COASTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE EXTENT OF THE ME COAST.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING SWD OVER NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
ME IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER ME IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SUGGESTING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...BUT A 50 KT NNWLY SPEED MAX WITH THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. THUS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#258 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:29 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 111924Z - 112130Z

Image

ISOLD SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE WATCH.

ON GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NW/NCNTRL MN. AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT...AMPLE INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S F...AMIDST MOIST UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F
DEWPOINTS. MODIFIED 12Z INTERNATIONAL FALLS/ABERDEEN RAOBS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS NOW RELATIVELY
UNCAPPED...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
GIVEN MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /20-25 KTS/ LARGELY ORIENTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT...STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS RATHER
QUICKLY AS THEY PROGRESS NEWD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#259 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jul 11, 2005 4:14 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...NE/ECNTRL CO AND SE WY/WRN NEB/FAR NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 112034Z - 112230Z

Image

TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF FRONT RANGE/HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SPREAD SSEWD REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SWD ACROSS WRN NEB AND FAR
SE WY/FAR NE CO...INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
SUPPORT EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE FROM THE SE WY/CO FRONT RANGE INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/WRN NEB REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
AMBIENT AIRMASS IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BASED ON
RUC SOUNDINGS/LATEST MESOANALYSIS...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. GIVEN MODEST NWLY FLOW PRESENT
ALOFT...ELY COMPONENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. A WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

#260 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jul 11, 2005 4:14 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2005


AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/SW MN INTO FAR NW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 112058Z - 112230Z

Image

AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS WCNTRL/SW MN INTO FAR NW IA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR NECESSITY OF SEVERE WATCH.

TSTMS DEVELOPING INVOF NNE-SSW ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS
PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD THROUGH FAR WRN MN/FAR NW IA. LATEST RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMBIENT AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF
2000-2500 J/KG. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ORIENTED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT. WOOD
LAKE MN PROFILER AND SIOUX FALLS WSR-88D VWP SUGGEST ONLY 20-25 KTS
OF MID LEVEL FLOW. NEVERTHELESS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
0 likes   


Return to “USA & Caribbean Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 28 guests