18:00z Model Guidance

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cycloneye
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18:00z Model Guidance

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:23 pm

Image

Almost the same tracks as Dennis went thru maybe a tad more north.
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#2 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:25 pm

The only good news for the U.S. Mainland is it goes over Hispanola.

Very bad for the Caribbean though.
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#3 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:29 pm

The BAMM looks like the most probable track.
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#4 Postby ohiostorm » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:30 pm

If it goes into the gulf it wont be good for anyone. Mainly a rain threat for a region who has had WAY too much rain.
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#5 Postby jax » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:30 pm

which one of these is the NOGAPS....
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#6 Postby dwg71 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:34 pm

Stormcenter wrote:The BAMM looks like the most probable track.


Not to me, none of these look plausible. Not one model has it going north of 12N 50W. Its going to go north of 12N 47W at its current heading.
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#7 Postby Anonymous » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:35 pm

The models took Dennis over Hispaniola too.
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#8 Postby x-y-no » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:37 pm

jax wrote:which one of these is the NOGAPS....


None of them. But the NOGAPS track is pretty similar - south of Hispaniola in the direction of Jamaica.
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#9 Postby Radar » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:39 pm

Well I'm going to watch the NHC models, they have been pretty close to par all season thus far...
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#10 Postby Stratusxpeye » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:41 pm

I have a general question on the trek of the storm, If this gets into the GOM Be it west or east would it turn north is that almost liike a 90% chance of always turning northward? Or hooking right or going straight into mexico? Thanks
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#11 Postby Ola » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:45 pm

dwg71 wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:The BAMM looks like the most probable track.


Not to me, none of these look plausible. Not one model has it going north of 12N 50W. Its going to go north of 12N 47W at its current heading.


Well yes and no. I think that the problem is that those are initialized at 10.5 north but the center is still not well defined. Once it defines itself it might actually start at 11.5 from the looks of the latest sat pics. After that, they should move about 1 degree north but probablly stay on the same heading. What you see as a wnw movement is probablly just the convection wraping around what will become the dominant defined llc, and not the actual movement of the low.
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#12 Postby cinlfla » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:50 pm

After that, they should move about 1 degree north but probablly stay on the same heading. What you see as a wnw movement is probablly just the convection wraping around what will become the dominant defined llc, and not the actual movement of the low.



Well I wish it would hurry up and center itself, I am having a heck of a time finding the center to track it.
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#13 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 2:53 pm

If it took the UKMET or GFDL, it wouldn't be more than a puff of cumulus by the time it reached the vicinity of Florida.
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#14 Postby wlfpack81 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:10 pm

Patrick99 wrote:If it took the UKMET or GFDL, it wouldn't be more than a puff of cumulus by the time it reached the vicinity of Florida.


Yea but if it were to emerge into the GOM it could have to time restrengthen some or a lot if it headed towards the w-ern GOM. Of course still very far out but doesn't hurt to discuss the possibilities.
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#15 Postby Sanibel » Mon Jul 11, 2005 3:16 pm

Way south...
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