12z NOGAPS - Dennis Like Carribbean Track?

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gkrangers

12z NOGAPS - Dennis Like Carribbean Track?

#1 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 4:33 pm

The following is my amateur opinion and I am probably wrong.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

The 12Z NOGAPS has a Dennis like track through the carribbean...taking TD5 into the central carribean and wnw/nw towards Jamaica. At the end of the period it builds a strong ridge westward into the central/eastern GOM. This would force TD5 westward towards Texas. If the ridge verified, it would protect LA, MS, AL, and FL.

Since the NHC thinks the NOGAPS is doing well so far...I guess we have to give it a little attention...until it misses a landfall by 500 miles and we throw it out the window...
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jabber
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#2 Postby jabber » Mon Jul 11, 2005 5:31 pm

Seems too. but I never trust any model that far out. NOGAPS still has to win my trust back after last years record.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jul 11, 2005 5:34 pm

No model, no opinion from anyone, should be trusted in a forecast five days out. According to the NHC, future Emily right now is struggling, and if the system continues weak, surely a more westward track is expected.
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#4 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 5:39 pm

jabber wrote:Seems too. but I never trust any model that far out. NOGAPS still has to win my trust back after last years record.

If you saw the NHC 11 am discussion, NOGAPS is winning for best track record "hands down". I think there is definitely some bias given to the NOGAPS in the NHC track.

Still no model, as HURKAN said, should be given too much seriousness this far out.
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#5 Postby Javlin » Mon Jul 11, 2005 6:29 pm

If it was right gkrangers you have to look to the NW to see a delveloping Low and troph at the 144 mark.This would possibilily push the high eastward then opening the gate to above mentioned areas.
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#6 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 11, 2005 6:35 pm

NOGAPS isnt my all time favorite model but it has to be taken at least somewhat more seriously given how good it has performed so far.

<RICKY>
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gkrangers

#7 Postby gkrangers » Mon Jul 11, 2005 7:54 pm

I wasn't making any kind of forecast, just some modelology.
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