TD 5 becoming better organized

[HURAKAN]

Just a burst of deep convection, a strong thunderstorm.

True, just a burst of convection, but, before this storm was nothing more than a low pressure system its convective areas were rather weak and scattered, now, since it was upgraded to depression the system has exhibit continual convection and that's very necessary for future development.

[gunner1551]

OK thanks what causes those?

[HURAKAN]

QUESTION FOR THE PRO'S:

What will happen to TD 5 over the next 24 hours?

[jpigott]

what's up with that convective blow up on the east side of TD5

[HURAKAN]

what's up with that convective blow up on the east side of TD5

Convective burst!

[HURAKAN]

The system seems to be getting better organized with a new convective burst and looks to be growing! See the loops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

Also it appears to have picked some momentum in the speed.

[zeusman]

Keep an eye on the intensification of the ridge just to the west on the loop. I am not sure the 12z run captured this rapid intensification as seen in the loop. If this is the case look for tonights 00z and tomorrows 12Z runs to show a more southerly track

[Thunder44]

If the reason why they don't upgrade this storm is because they can't locate a true center, they may not upgrade untill 11am tomorrow, because we won't get visible images till then.

[jabber]

It appears to me to be looking pretty good right now with the cold cloud tops expanding. Would not the center be under these tops? If so it appears the center is north of the plotted position at this time. I am sure I am wrong... but there could be a first.

[jabber]

Also... TD5 does not appear to be moving due west check this view out:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim8ir.html

[Swimdude]

Also... TD5 does not appear to be moving due west check this view out:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim8ir.html

I'm pretty sure it's not...

[mvtrucking]

Also... TD5 does not appear to be moving due west check this view out:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim8ir.html

Its hard for me to see with that link( rookie here). It looks almost WNW?

[Weatherboy1]

My best guess is that either the entire system is moving a bit more WNW OR it's reoganizing with a center farther to the N. Darn IR imagery isn't that good for fixing center positions on developing systems that don't have an obvious eye, CDO, etc.

My biggest concern at this early stage -- and so much can change, it's really just conjecture -- is that the "start" point for this system could end up being in the 11.5N/12N range (for example, if a center re-org leaves the LLC that far N)

IF that turns out to be the case, then you have to shift the entire forecast track by the NHC 1-2 degrees north. And IF you do that, you end up with a system that likely crosses extremely close to or over PR AND misses the bulk of the island of Hispanola, bypassing it to the north. Needless to say, that also increases the threat to the Keys or South FL.

Again, this is all educated guesswork. Five could just as easily take a more southerly track into the Gulf a la Dennis or crash through the islands like Georges in 1998. But what I do NOT see happening is a recurve ... I strongly expect this storm to eventually be somebody's problem in the Gulf (it's only a question of how it gets there at this point)

Note: these are all my opinions, not an official forecast.

-Mike

[gunner1551]

I was wondering what causes the convection to burst up like that. Convection is a sign of intensication. SO that means this thing is intensifying and could it possibly reach hurricane status by the 11 pm advisory?? Or will they wait untill tomorrow to locate a true eye and get a pressure reading??

[LilNoles2005]

I was wondering what causes the convection to burst up like that. Convection is a sign of intensication. SO that means this thing is intensifying and could it possibly reach hurricane status by the 11 pm advisory?? Or will they wait untill tomorrow to locate a true eye and get a pressure reading??

Hurricane status at 11? No way in hades.

Tropical Storm status? Yes.

[gkrangers]

I was wondering what causes the convection to burst up like that. Convection is a sign of intensication. SO that means this thing is intensifying and could it possibly reach hurricane status by the 11 pm advisory?? Or will they wait untill tomorrow to locate a true eye and get a pressure reading??

Forecaster Stewart is in a canoe rowing his way to the center of TD5/TS Emily with a barometer in hand.

[kevin]

My hurricane hunter sub is such a great idea. I'm waiting for the government to contact me.

[Snowluver]

I am very surprised this isn't a T.S. yet. ARe the NHC smoking something

[gkrangers]

I am very surprised this isn't a T.S. yet. ARe the NHC smoking something

It's going to be upgraded at the 11PM advisory.

Whats with the NHC bashing?