If the UKMET and GFDL are right, Emily is done for.

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pcolaguy

If the UKMET and GFDL are right, Emily is done for.

#1 Postby pcolaguy » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:26 pm

Image

No way can it survive TWO pretty good size islands full of mountains.
Last edited by pcolaguy on Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby texasheat » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:30 pm

its gonna go south of jamica
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#3 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:33 pm

The consensus seems to have shifted southward...
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#4 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:34 pm

Consensus is shifting more southward. Don't IGNORE the other models, except the 98E. The GFDL can be pretty horrific too.
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#5 Postby texasheat » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:35 pm

whats the consensus
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#6 Postby wx247 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:35 pm

Actually the only old model on there is the UKMET.
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#7 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:36 pm

texasheat wrote:whats the consensus

The models overall have ALL been shifting south consistently. Yes, they go to different places, but they are each going further south with each run.
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Not to mention the GFS

#8 Postby jimvb » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:38 pm

Also the GFS, which consistently has TD #5 (probably Emily, unless some other hotshot storm becomes tropical soon) hitting Hispaniola and destroying itself there. It just simply goes poof, and there is no more evidence of it on GFS maps. The latest run of GFS still has TD #5 meeting its end in Hispaniola. Debby did this a few years ago. So maybe this is what TD #5 will do. But note that Jeanne last year hit Hispaniola, somehow got out of the poison island's grip and went on to become one of 2004's major hurricanes.
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#9 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:40 pm

For whatever reason, maybe outlined in the discussion, NHC has gone north of all the models and a good bit north of their previous track at 11.
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#10 Postby EDR1222 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:41 pm

Uh oh, the Island of Doom. With the models trending southward, maybe it will miss the greater antilles all together.
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#11 Postby The Big Dog » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:47 pm

jkt21787 wrote:For whatever reason, maybe outlined in the discussion, NHC has gone north of all the models and a good bit north of their previous track at 11.

They relocated the center further north, so they bumped the forecast track north.
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#12 Postby jkt21787 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:49 pm

The Big Dog wrote:
jkt21787 wrote:For whatever reason, maybe outlined in the discussion, NHC has gone north of all the models and a good bit north of their previous track at 11.

They relocated the center further north, so they bumped the forecast track north.

Yep, just read the NHC discussion about that.
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#13 Postby timNms » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:50 pm

If I'm not mistaken, Frederic in 1979 visited Hispanola. Mobile can tell you that the island had little effect on his strenght.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197906.asp
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#14 Postby The Big Dog » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:55 pm

timNms wrote:If I'm not mistaken, Frederic in 1979 visited Hispanola. Mobile can tell you that the island had little effect on his strenght.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197906.asp

That's nothing. Try David in '79 -- struck as a Cat 5, came off as a 1:

Image
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#15 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:55 pm

timNms wrote:If I'm not mistaken, Frederic in 1979 visited Hispanola. Mobile can tell you that the island had little effect on his strenght.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197906.asp


<<==== Frederic after crossing Hispaniola and riding Cuba all the way up.
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#16 Postby Swimdude » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:57 pm

This is so strange... The models are taking this storm more South, while the official forecast is taking it more Northerly. What's going on? :?:
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#17 Postby The Big Dog » Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:59 pm

Swimdude wrote:This is so strange... The models are taking this storm more South, while the official forecast is taking it more Northerly. What's going on? :?:

NHC relocated the center, but the models were initialized further south. That could change things a little. We'll have to wait for the next model runs now.
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#18 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:08 pm

well, its still moving at 280...just about due WEST...we will have to see how long that last...cuz, I ** think** the NHC has it starting to move it a little more north, say 300 or so...soon??
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#19 Postby Brent » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:11 pm

Here we go again... :lol:
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#20 Postby deltadog03 » Mon Jul 11, 2005 10:13 pm

Brent wrote:Here we go again... :lol:


stop it brent....we are not going anywhere... :lol: :lol:
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