Emily Advisorys

[kevin]

Yep, its going to be crazy.

[gkrangers]

Stewart had us fooled with that 35KTS earlier! Heh...good discussion by him.

[Brent]

Oh God...Media frenzy once South Florida gets into the cone..

Too late... they were talking about it last night. I've NEVER EVER EVER seen the media talk about a TD that is newly formed that's 3 days from any land and a week from the U.S., but they did.

[Brent]

Stewart had us fooled with that 35KTS earlier! Heh...good discussion by him.

Went from poorly organized to this... very interesting.

No telling what we'll all wake up to.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND THE EARLIER EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE EAST
SIDE THAT HAD BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION
HAS WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS
T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBER IS 3.0/45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND
THE MUCH IMPROVED INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED TO 35 KT ON THE SYNOPTIC TIME AND 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EMILY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS SMALL BUT SYMMETRICAL...AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. DUE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEPER CONVECTION...THE
FORECAST TRACK HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH...OR RIGHT...OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
JUST PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
UNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...NEAR PUERTO
RICO IN 72-84 HOURS...AND THEN PASSING OVER OR NORTH OF EASTERN
HISPANIOLA IN 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SO TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...NOW THAT THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS COME INTO THE FOLD...THE
MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 120 HOURS IS LESS THAN 120 NMI. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OR
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24-36 HOURS WHEN EMILY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A SMALL 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AS
DEPICTED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER
...IF EMILY DOES NOT INTERACT MUCH WITH PUERTO RICO AND/OR
HISPANIOLA...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT 120 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 11.3N 47.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 11.8N 48.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 12.6N 51.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 13.5N 54.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 58.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 15/0000Z 16.8N 64.1W 80 KT
96HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 69.5W 85 KT...NEAR PUERTO RICO
120HR VT 17/0000Z 21.5N 75.5W 85 KT...NEAR ERN HISPANIOLA


I had to post the discussion in another page because it is very important for many people that will be threatened including me.

[Praxus]

Those poor Haitians have more hard times ahead. They always suffer the worst when a storm has a track like that.

[Canelaw99]

I agree cyclone....we have family in San Juan and Ponce so we're watching it very closely for them AND for us

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[ncweatherwizard]

19N 69.5W is near Eastern Hispaniola, and 21.5N 75.5W is near eastern Cuba. Time for Stewart to take a nap maybe

[johngaltfla]

Oh God...Media frenzy once South Florida gets into the cone..

Too late... they were talking about it last night. I've NEVER EVER EVER seen the media talk about a TD that is newly formed that's 3 days from any land and a week from the U.S., but they did.

Same thing here in the Tampa area. Already talking about it tonight and having that worried look on their faces. I can't wait to watch the 11 pm panic sessions.

Wow. And we're not even into the "BUSY" part of the season. What will that bring? 3 storms a week instead of 1????????????????/

[weatherwindow]

good evening luis.....5 looks decidely healthier in the last two hours. persistent blowup of deep convection, incipient cdo.....could be emily. however i don't think TPC will upgrade based on IR. will likely wait for the vis tomorrow morning..................rich

.well so much for my conservative nature....WRONG, WRONG.... game on ...maybe a georges track with more water and less pr....luis...stay safe, i do think that emily has the potential to get alot stronger after getting under the high southeast of you.........rich

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

Yikes...

Extrapolitan has it nearing the Keys Late Sunday/Early Monday.

VERY VERY early to speculate on that though... simply if the NHC track happens and it doesn't make a turn afterwards.

[Scorpion]

Thats the official track?? Wow, definitely a threat to S FL. Looks the mountains will tear it apart though.

[ncweatherwizard]

19N 69.5W is near Eastern Hispaniola, and 21.5N 75.5W is near eastern Cuba. Time for Stewart to take a nap maybe

OK, I'm thinking that near PR was supposed to be for the 72hr point, and that near eastern Hispaniola was for the 96hr point...no huge deal, but definitely caught my eye for a minute.

[Praxus]

Speaking of updates - looks like the next one is well underway

"THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM EMILY...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
OR ALSO ABOUT 875 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY.
DESPITE ITS LOW LATITUDE POSITION...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 MPH."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml?

[Patrick99]

If the Keys, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale are in the 5 day cone come morning, that's a pretty good indication of where Emily WON'T be going. We've seen this so many times, it's like a bad joke at this point. I'm not even going to watch the 11PM panic-fest that will be our newscast.

The forecast will "trend" away from us, inevitably. It's funny, all throughout the 1990s, the "trend" was always to the right of us, after initially pointing at us. Now these past few years, the trend has been to the left, after initially pointing at us.

[wx247]

If the Keys, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale are in the 5 day cone come morning, that's a pretty good indication of where Emily WON'T be going. We've seen this so many times, it's like a bad joke at this point. I'm not even going to watch the 11PM panic-fest that will be our newscast.

The forecast will "trend" away from us, inevitably. It's funny, all throughout the 1990s, the "trend" was always to the right of us, after initially pointing at us. Now these past few years, the trend has been to the left, after initially pointing at us.

Navarre Beach was within the 5-day cone with Dennis. 'Nuff said.

[Patrick99]

If the Keys, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale are in the 5 day cone come morning, that's a pretty good indication of where Emily WON'T be going. We've seen this so many times, it's like a bad joke at this point. I'm not even going to watch the 11PM panic-fest that will be our newscast.

The forecast will "trend" away from us, inevitably. It's funny, all throughout the 1990s, the "trend" was always to the right of us, after initially pointing at us. Now these past few years, the trend has been to the left, after initially pointing at us.

Navarre Beach was within the 5-day cone with Dennis. 'Nuff said.

The 5 day cone sometimes works for other locales - just not S. FL!