TS Emily - 00z Global Model Thread

[Swimdude]

So many Texans hoping for TX/LA landfalls .

Myself included.

[gkrangers]

Just refresh that CMC page and it'll show the 00z Tuesday.

[ericinmia]

lol sorry, damned cached images...

Yeah i know all about RGEM, and GGEM...

[texasheat]

if this moves into the gulf and the ridge is over the east gulf wouldnt it move it to texas or la..

[jkt21787]

if this moves into the gulf and the ridge is over the east gulf wouldnt it move it to texas or la..

I saw an HPC day 7 sfc prog and it showed the ridge building into the eastern gulf with the low just offshore Cuba a little west of Dennis's track. If the ridge builds west into the GOM, there is no doubt it will head west perhaps into LA/TX. However its way to soon to know.

Edit: Here it is...

[texasheat]

did this model show it as a hurrricane or ts

[gkrangers]

did this model show it as a hurrricane or ts

Intensity modeling sucks, especially when storms move over land. Can't give you a straight answer because it differs from model to model and time to time.

[jkt21787]

did this model show it as a hurrricane or ts

I posted the map above. HPC is not a model, they are a branch of the NWS. They don't focus on the intensity just show a low track.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[clfenwi]

Out of all that I have seen so far, I have not seen a single initialization the position of Emily's center that I like; all of them look to have it a bit too far south; not 'holy cow that is terrible' sized errors, but errors just large enough to make me think that I will wait another cycle before taking much interest in their output...

[jkt21787]

Out of all that I have seen so far, I have not seen a single initialization the position of Emily's center that I like; all of them look to have it a bit too far south; not 'holy cow that is terrible' sized errors, but errors just large enough to make me think that I will wait another cycle before taking much interest in their output...

agreed. We need to see the output with the correct center first.

[gkrangers]

Out of all that I have seen so far, I have not seen a single initialization the position of Emily's center that I like; all of them look to have it a bit too far south; not 'holy cow that is terrible' sized errors, but errors just large enough to make me think that I will wait another cycle before taking much interest in their output...

agreed. We need to see the output with the correct center first.

Good luck...center initialization could be off the enter life cycle of the storm...

[texasheat]

only reason im asking is becasuse i live on galveston bay

[jkt21787]

Out of all that I have seen so far, I have not seen a single initialization the position of Emily's center that I like; all of them look to have it a bit too far south; not 'holy cow that is terrible' sized errors, but errors just large enough to make me think that I will wait another cycle before taking much interest in their output...

agreed. We need to see the output with the correct center first.

Good luck...center initialization could be off the enter life cycle of the storm...

agreed again. We saw the initialization errors with Dennis throughout.

[jkt21787]

only reason im asking is becasuse i live on galveston bay

Like I'm sure you did with Dennis, you'll just have to watch and wait. Those HPC maps could be way off base. I don't normally look at them so I don't know how good they are. KEEP IN MIND NHC ONLY FORECASTS OUT TO 5 DAYS AND THAT IS A 7 DAY FORECAST MAP! The margain of error is HUGE.

[clfenwi]

Out of all that I have seen so far, I have not seen a single initialization the position of Emily's center that I like; all of them look to have it a bit too far south; not 'holy cow that is terrible' sized errors, but errors just large enough to make me think that I will wait another cycle before taking much interest in their output...

agreed. We need to see the output with the correct center first.

Good luck...center initialization could be off the enter life cycle of the storm...

Don't agree with this comment or the one immediately following it; while a model or two may blow an initialization (of the position of a mature storm, I haven't seen them all blow it in the same cycle...

[texasheat]

only reason im asking is becasuse i live on galveston bay

Like I'm sure you did with Dennis, you'll just have to watch and wait. Those HPC maps could be way off base. I don't normally look at them so I don't know how good they are. KEEP IN MIND NHC ONLY FORECASTS OUT TO 5 DAYS AND THAT IS A 7 DAY FORECAST MAP! The margain of error is HUGE.

true but ussualy we have a high come save the day for us. and i jsut dont see it happening this time

[jkt21787]

Out of all that I have seen so far, I have not seen a single initialization the position of Emily's center that I like; all of them look to have it a bit too far south; not 'holy cow that is terrible' sized errors, but errors just large enough to make me think that I will wait another cycle before taking much interest in their output...

agreed. We need to see the output with the correct center first.

Good luck...center initialization could be off the enter life cycle of the storm...

Don't agree with this comment or the one immediately following it; while a model or two may blow an initialization of a mature storm, I haven't seen them all blow it in the same cycle...

I hate to sound like I'm agreeing again (especially with seemingly opposing views), but I do. There are certain models that did bad w/intialization at certain times, some more than others. Not all at the same time. I think as with Dennis, for the most part, the models should give us a good idea, but there will be major outliers (like the UKMET and CMC with Dennis) and those have to be treated with extreme caution.

[jkt21787]

only reason im asking is becasuse i live on galveston bay

Like I'm sure you did with Dennis, you'll just have to watch and wait. Those HPC maps could be way off base. I don't normally look at them so I don't know how good they are. KEEP IN MIND NHC ONLY FORECASTS OUT TO 5 DAYS AND THAT IS A 7 DAY FORECAST MAP! The margain of error is HUGE.

true but ussualy we have a high come save the day for us. and i jsut dont see it happening this time

Well the models certainly show a strengthening ridge as the storm approaches, so its best to be vigilant. The models could change greatly with the strength of the ridge.

I wish we could be more certain with this but its just impossible even with the technology we have today.

[texasheat]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
that model scares me...

[MBismyPlayground]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005071200&field=500mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation
that model scares me...

EEEEwwwwww.......is that a 2nd one running parallel to Emily????Now that would be wicked.