Chance of seeing Tropical Storm/Hurricane Alpha this year.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

PLEASE DO NOT VOTE IN THIS POLL! POLL IS CLOSED! VALID DATE OCTOBER 22, 2005

For those of you not familiar with this.....I am asking for your opinion on the hurricane season going beyond 21 storms.....which in that case, the Greek Alphabet is used (Alpha, Beta, Gamma,...)

For this to happen:

-Must have an early start to season, and active June/July.
-Activeness must continue through August-September
-October and November must show storms as well, and not completely die off like in some previous years.

What do you think?

[OtherHD]

0-25%...although much closer to 0%

[Scorpion]

I dont give it much chance. I doubt the season can keep going and going. Most likely there will be a lull in July followed by a big August and big September.

[feederband]

June and were talking Alpha storm %. I tell you if the season turns out that way there won't be much left standing for next years season to beat up.....

[Andrew92]

Nuh-uh.

[Swimdude]

Highly unlikely.

[dhweather]

I'd put the chances at about 1%

[HURAKAN]

I will give it about 1% of that happening since I can't rule out that possibility. But we have to remember that usually the Atlantic Ocean tries to balnce out an active period with inactive periods, like 2 weeks of activity and then 1 or 2 weeks of no or minimal activity. I really don't see it in the future, I just see a moderate over average season with more or less 15 storms, by the way, we got 2 already!

[vacanechaser]

ZZeerrooo.. 0000


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[*StOrmsPr*]

i don't know, i think is highly unlikely, but then again who would have thought of 1933 having 21 TS if we were in 1933 instead of 2005 ??

[hurricanefreak1988]

Oh man. I'm remembering this thread come late November. You never know.

[SouthernWx]

While of course the possibility is never very high of a record active Atlantic hurricane season, this season I wouldn't rule it out....not with the overall parameters and sst's so unusually warm.

One must remember....in that record breaking hurricane season of 1933 (when 21 named storms occurred), how many others occurred then which were missed?? This was during the heart of the Great Depression, there was no satellite data, no reconnaisance data; the only way to detect even major hurricanes far at sea being ship reports. We know of 21...it's possible the true number was NS was 22 or more.

One thing I've learned in three decades of weather research: NEVER SAY NEVER. I well remember some meteorologists in the 1970's doubting the 1935 "Labor Day" hurricane's reported central pressure (892 mb) being accurate (sub-900 mb), because no other Atlantic hurricane before or since had reached 900 mb....but then Allen in 80' (899 mb) then Gilbert eight years later (888 mb) proved their theory WRONG...

With the data collection methods available today, another season such as 1933 might yield 22, 23, or even more named storms....because the small, weak, and short lived tropical cyclones which were missed in the pre-satellite and reconnaisance days aren't missed anymore.

21 or more named tropical storms this season aren't likely, but impossible.....IMO no way; knowing what I know regarding the tropics and hurricane cycles, I'd estimate the odds of it occurring this particular season at almost 50/50.

PW

[Aquawind]

One thing I've learned in three decades of weather research: NEVER SAY NEVER.

Yep.. Hence I do give it slim odds but a chance for sure...

Paul

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Agree SouthernWx....I was thinking 50/50.

The main reason I brought this up so early was the fact that we have had 2 systems in June, we have abnormally high SSTs, and think of this....when was the last time you saw so much activity in June?...in terms of the Tropical Weather Outlooks. It was not very often this month that the TWO said absolutely nothing...

This is a sign of:

-Lower Sea Level Pressures, creating more storm activity
-Higher Sea Surface Temperatures
-Greater Instability

Which all = a very active season to come. We will see though!

[hurricanefreak1988]

I just had to bump this thread. What'd I tell you? I'm looking at all these previous posts, and I am seeing a lot of crow that could be eaten, lol. We are about to see our SIXTH storm of the season form in just a few days. Folks, that's SIX storms as of only mid-July. To put that in perspective, the biggest season of all time, 1995, didn't even get its sixth storm until August 5. I'm telling you, if we keep it up, this could be the year. If I were you, I'd start practicing the pronunciation of Roman letters.

[Scorpion]

Looking alot more possible now than it was then.

[hurricanefreak1988]

I dont give it much chance. I doubt the season can keep going and going. Most likely there will be a lull in July followed by a big August and big September.

So you want to take this statement back, huh?

[Hurricaneman]

It looks quite possible

[Trader Ron]

If i was making "book" on this. I'd make the odds 1% for an Alpha storm. 20% for 19 storms. One more thing. If we have a parade of storms, there will be an awful lot of "upwelling" in the tropics regardless of higher SST's.

There might be a crow-fest at my house, but what the hay.

[stormie]

First the Red Sox (which I also called this year )...why not Tropical Storm Alpha?

Okay, seriously though, given the length of time data has been kept and the variance by which storms have been measured throughout the duration, I wouldn't be shocked if there was a slightly higher ceiling with respect to number of storms than we might currently believe.