06:00 z Guidance out on Emily

[Wnghs2007]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 120644
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050712 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050712 0600 050712 1800 050713 0600 050713 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 47.9W 11.7N 50.1W 12.1N 52.4W 12.8N 55.0W
BAMM 11.3N 47.9W 11.8N 50.5W 12.2N 53.2W 13.0N 56.0W
A98E 11.3N 47.9W 11.5N 50.4W 11.9N 53.1W 12.4N 55.9W
LBAR 11.3N 47.9W 11.4N 50.5W 11.8N 53.4W 12.3N 56.7W
SHIP 40KTS 50KTS 61KTS 71KTS
DSHP 40KTS 50KTS 61KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050714 0600 050715 0600 050716 0600 050717 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 57.9W 15.6N 63.4W 17.3N 68.3W 17.9N 72.6W
BAMM 13.7N 59.2W 15.7N 65.7W 17.5N 72.0W 18.8N 78.3W
A98E 13.1N 58.6W 14.6N 64.0W 16.0N 69.2W 17.2N 74.6W
LBAR 12.8N 60.1W 14.2N 67.0W 16.1N 73.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 80KTS 89KTS 89KTS 84KTS
DSHP 80KTS 89KTS 55KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 47.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 45.4W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 43.4W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 30NM

[southerngale]

Ok, care to elaborate?

[texasheat]

[Sanibel]

Not lifting at all.

The center is around 1/3rd way up from the bottom in the convection and rolling along almost dead west.


We'll see if it starts lifting tomorrow. Right now it looks like a potential low-tracker...

[texasheat]

what do you mean.

[Stratosphere747]

what do you mean.

It would mean that Emily would track south of PR, Hispaniola and Cuba.

And no this does not mean it would be a Texas event. It could as easily track into Central America.

[wxwatcher91]

what do you mean.

It would mean that Emily would track south of PR, Hispaniola and Cuba.

And no this does not mean it would be a Texas event. It could as easily track into Central America.

yeah but I doubt it.

I think the 6 main possible tracks are

1. continuing west and striking Central America.
2. continuing west and then curving north to strike the Gulf Coast AGAIN
3. gradually turning to the WNW and striking Hispaniola and continuing to the WNW to strike Cuba as well
4. gradually turning to the WNW and striking Hispaniola ang then turning to the north to go up the east coast.
5. take a turn to the WNW or NW NOW and miss the Caribbean Islands, then turn back to the west and strike the Carolinas
6. take a turn to the WNW or NW NOW and miss the Caribbean Islands, then turn back to the west and then turn again toward the north to go up the east coast.