Interesting NWS Long Term Forecast out of Ruskin (Tampa)

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TreasureIslandFLGal
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Interesting NWS Long Term Forecast out of Ruskin (Tampa)

#1 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:11 am

LONG TERM (THU NGT - MON)...GFS/ETA ARE NOW SHOWING A RATHER
STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING
ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DENNIS
GONE...WIND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WITH SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. THE RIDGE WILL START
MIGRATING NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND FOR A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK. ALSO...SPECIAL ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY MODIFY THE FORECAST IF ITS TRACK FINALLY
BRINGS IT CLOSER TO FLORIDA DURING THE WEEKEND.


They seem to indicate that over the weekend the status of the ridge is going to change. This would allow a more northerly component to Emily no matter where she was come the weekend if she was tracing the periphery of the ridge for her movement. They don't say that the ridge would be retrograding east, just heading north.
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#2 Postby jabber » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:18 am

Interesting...this is what they are saying at the Miami NWS:

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF NOW TROPICAL STORM EMILY...NOW
APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...2300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT CONCERNING WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACT EMILY WILL HAVE ON SOUTH
FLORIDA. BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP IN
MIND IT MAY FIZZLE ENTIRELY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. IT'S TOO SOON TO TELL.
FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE LATEST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM EMILY.
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#3 Postby Canelaw99 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:22 am

jabber wrote:Interesting...this is what they are saying at the Miami NWS:

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF NOW TROPICAL STORM EMILY...NOW
APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...2300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT CONCERNING WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACT EMILY WILL HAVE ON SOUTH
FLORIDA. BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP IN
MIND IT MAY FIZZLE ENTIRELY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. IT'S TOO SOON TO TELL.
FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE LATEST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM EMILY.


BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK

Gotta love that LOL :roll:
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#4 Postby Trader Ron » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:28 am

I bet every NWS from Brownsville, Tx to Key West, Fl is saying the same thing. :lol: :lol:
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#5 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:30 am

Here's a tidbit from Lake Charles, LA:

TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE IN
THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF EMILY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSUMING SHE SURVIVES HER
JOURNEY THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN UNSCATHED.
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#6 Postby Brent » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:31 am

and so it begins:

The TX/LA vs. FL people. 8-)

*pulls up a chair*
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#7 Postby jax » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:34 am

Brent wrote:and so it begins:

The TX/LA vs. FL people. 8-)

*pulls up a chair*


It's a Corpus Christy storm... IMHO
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#8 Postby huricanwatcher » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:37 am

its a NC storm now come-on!!! :P
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#9 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:38 am

It's a Corpus Christy storm... IMHO


NO ITS A FL STORM!!! lol.
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#10 Postby wx247 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:39 am

I think it is coming ashore in Seattle as a CAT 6 so take that!

:A:
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#11 Postby Trader Ron » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:42 am

I say Texas is 3 points over Florida. :lol: :lol: :lol:

This is not a forecast. :D
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#12 Postby Wacahootaman » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:43 am

Nicawawa fer sure. You can bet on it.
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#13 Postby HalloweenGale » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:47 am

No, its gonna hit the carolinas, and go inland, trhen die, then make a loop, and come out of Florida.

sound familiar?
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#14 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:49 am

WOW....those tampa NWS think everything is coming there way...whats up with that?
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#15 Postby stormie » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:58 am

Canelaw99 wrote:
jabber wrote:Interesting...this is what they are saying at the Miami NWS:

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF NOW TROPICAL STORM EMILY...NOW
APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...2300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT CONCERNING WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACT EMILY WILL HAVE ON SOUTH
FLORIDA. BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP IN
MIND IT MAY FIZZLE ENTIRELY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. IT'S TOO SOON TO TELL.
FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE LATEST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM EMILY.


BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK

Gotta love that LOL :roll:


I'm beginning to think that forecasting is like fortune telling.

:notworthy:

Please don't ban me.

:lol:
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#16 Postby EDR1222 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:59 am

huricanwatcher wrote:its a NC storm now come-on!!! :P


Great! Can't wait for the Florida-NC wobble wars to begin 8-)
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#17 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:05 am

stormie wrote:
Canelaw99 wrote:
jabber wrote:Interesting...this is what they are saying at the Miami NWS:

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF NOW TROPICAL STORM EMILY...NOW
APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...2300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT CONCERNING WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACT EMILY WILL HAVE ON SOUTH
FLORIDA. BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT KEEP IN
MIND IT MAY FIZZLE ENTIRELY BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. IT'S TOO SOON TO TELL.
FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE LATEST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM EMILY.


BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK

Gotta love that LOL :roll:


I'm beginning to think that forecasting is like fortune telling.

:notworthy:

Please don't ban me.

:lol:

you mean like crap right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :raincloud: :raincloud: :raincloud: :raincloud: :raincloud: :raincloud:
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#18 Postby angelwing » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:22 am

It's coming to New Jersey, what a way to celebrate :bday:
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#19 Postby Scorpion » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:26 am

Lol about the FL/TX and FL/NC wobble wars. We try to do as much as possible to get the storm to move north and always exaggerate its heading and say the ridge is weakening whenever a storm is going into the Carib, but when its vs NC we try to say that the ridge is strengthening and that its heading west. Gotta love it.
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Re: Interesting NWS Long Term Forecast out of Ruskin (Tampa)

#20 Postby Agua » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:26 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:
LONG TERM (THU NGT - MON)...GFS/ETA ARE NOW SHOWING A RATHER
STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING
ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF DENNIS
GONE...WIND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WITH SEA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON PERIODS. THE RIDGE WILL START
MIGRATING NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND FOR A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK. ALSO...SPECIAL ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IN THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY MODIFY THE FORECAST IF ITS TRACK FINALLY
BRINGS IT CLOSER TO FLORIDA DURING THE WEEKEND.


They seem to indicate that over the weekend the status of the ridge is going to change. This would allow a more northerly component to Emily no matter where she was come the weekend if she was tracing the periphery of the ridge for her movement. They don't say that the ridge would be retrograding east, just heading north.


These are the same guys that created all the confusion concerning Dennis and the FL penninsula with that "Ridge is deteriorating and will pull NE" garbage, aren't they? I'll take anything the Ruskin NWS office says regarding steering features with a heavy dose of salt from now on.
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