Is Emily moving SOUTH of West?

[Horatio 'Cane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Looks slightly S. of West for this untrained eye, and left of the NHC forecast points? In other words, is this storm further Southerly than as originally predicted?

[x-y-no]

Stream flow looks due west to me.

Emily is still pretty ragged, so I wouldn't read too much into little shifts in the convective envelope. When it gets to around 55w or so, I expect significant improvement.

Jan

[ncweatherwizard]

It's basically due west. Not unheard of for a storm under a strong ridge in this area to lose a little latitude, but in this case, no. The storm's moving faster than it was earlier; that's one reason the system is left of the NHC plots. Also, initializations have been all over the place in the past 24 hours, so it's been hard to give an accurate location of the center (it's been broad).

[MGC]

It might just be an illusion. Tropical cyclones mostly head W to WNW at this location. Once recon gets in Emily in another day then we will know the exact circulation center location, heading and speed......MGC

[Horatio 'Cane]

Does this heading appear to take the storm SOUTH of the Islands? Looks that way to me, but I am not a pro in this field.

[ncweatherwizard]

If it were to stay at 11N, it would be in the Trinidad/Tobago area, but a west-northwestward turn will almost certainly occur within 24 hours, which will carry the storm into the southern part of the island chain.

[Weatherboy1]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

That trough being driven south between 60W and 70W appears to be causing a weakness in the Atlantic ridge. It's not a significant one ... and the trough is forecast to lift out by the global models. So this is not a trough that's going to recurve Emily into the open Atlantic. But I expect a slow bend to WNW to commence as she starts responding to that weakness/gap. Then once that trough lifts out, she will likely bend back closer to due W. That will eventually drive her into the Gulf, in my opinion, and could carry her all the way to the TX coast.

-Mike

[Sanibel]

Very possibly. Hard to tell because the center is elongated.


I wanted to make a new topic on this called "Low Tracker".


Very odd year 2005...