Emily Advisorys

#181 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:55 am

Does it looks a familiar track?

x-y-no · #182 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:56 am

They're going to 3 hour advisories already. Excellent! :-)

Jan

#183 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:01 am

164
WTNT45 KNHC 121458
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

EMILY IS SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING THIS MORNING...AND A MICROWAVE
PASS AT 0920Z DOES MUCH TO IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED
ON A T3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB. OUTFLOW IS STRONG BOTH
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CONSOLIDATING...A MORE
RAPID STRENGTHENING TREND IS LIKELY...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT BEING THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR. BOTH THE
SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/18...CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
BEFORE. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HAD SOMETHING OF A RIGHT BIAS
SO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED
BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD
KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE
CENTER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...EVEN MORE
SO THAN YESTERDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT
100 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 11.0N 51.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 11.4N 53.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 11.9N 57.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 12.8N 60.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.0N 63.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 16.0N 69.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 75.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 80.0W 100 KT

#184 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:14 am

#185 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:15 am

Cone has shifted left.

#186 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:17 am

Can Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba be able to withstand another strike?

When things go wrong, they really do in this case.

Scorpion · #187 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:17 am

Yucatan Channel. Hopefully it hits the Yucatan first and weakens like Isidore.

#188 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:18 am

Scorpion wrote:Yucatan Channel. Hopefully it hits the Yucatan first and weakens like Isidore.

A major hurricane is never wished to anyone.

GalvestonDuck · #189 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:19 am

Scorpion wrote:Yucatan Channel. Hopefully it hits the Yucatan first and weakens like Isidore.

Amen!

Scorpion · #190 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:22 am

At this rate we might see 3 majors in July. And then August of course is big 3 majors there and then September is the peak 2-3 majors there, and bang we got 8-9 majors this season :eek:

. And im not even counting October or November, might have 1 or 2 there.

jax · #191 Postby **jax** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:27 am

when does recon go in?

#192 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:29 am

jax wrote:when does recon go in?

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
FLIGHT ONE
A. 13/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0105A CYCLONE
C. 13/0900Z
D. 12.2N 55.2W
E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Tommorow.That was written yesterday that is why it says Tropical Depression Five.

wxwatcher91 · #193 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:35 am

omg this time last year we werent looking at any action at ALL! this year we are looking at 5 named storms, 1 (#2coming) hurricanes, and 1 (#2 coming) major hurricanes....

this is actually what some SEASONS turn out to have!

does anyone know if any explanations have been issued... like REAL ones, not stupid reporters that know nothing.

oh and by the way its only mid July... you could even still call it EARLY July. my prediction for by the end of July is 8-4-3

Scorpion · #194 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:38 am

At this rate that wild prediction wouldnt surprise me.

wxwatcher91 · #195 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:49 am

LOL ya right now I wouldnt be suprised by too much... an increase OR a decrease wouldnt suprise me

jax · #196 Postby **jax** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:51 am

when do the models update? every 6 hours?

hurricanefloyd5 · #197 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:51 am

i thinik florida is safe from emily!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#198 Postby **wx247** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:53 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:i thinik florida is safe from emily!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Far too early to say for sure.

wxwatcher91 · #199 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:54 am

LOL ya right now I wouldnt be suprised by too much... an increase OR a decrease wouldnt suprise me

hurricanefloyd5 · #200 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 10:55 am

i dont think florida because the high is too too strong at this point and no signs it moving nor weakening!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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