Is there something that will turn Emily north in the Gulf?

pcolaguy · #1 Postby **pcolaguy** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:13 am

Like with all the other storms this year... a high pressure or something made it go north... so is there something there, or could it go to Texas?

gkrangers · #2 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:15 am

Its all primarily dependent on the strenght and location of the subtropical ridge. If it builds westward into the GOM, it'll push the storm west towards TX/SW LA. If it pulls out to the north and east, it opens the door to MS/LA/FL again.

Scorpion · #3 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:16 am

Its going to Texas.

rtd2 · #4 Postby **rtd2** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:20 am

gkrangers wrote:Its all primarily dependent on the strenght and location of the subtropical ridge. If it builds westward into the GOM, it'll push the storm west towards TX/SW LA. If it pulls out to the north and east, it opens the door to MS/LA/FL again.

Thats as easy as it gets! Textbook asnswer! We can use this answer until atleast late september when HP is Not as much of a factor! Seriously they should make a Sticky with this answer for all the HP ?'s

They WILL increase!

#5 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:21 am

She has TX/LA written all over her. IMO
We could use the rain but NOT the strong winds.

dwg71 · #6 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:22 am

Or it could build in further west and drive it right into mexico, this is assuming it makes it to the gulf.

Lets wait and see.

VonBek_wx · #7 Postby **VonBek_wx** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:25 am

Seems as if you are definite it is going to TX Scorpion. Maybe you should work for the NHC. I 'm sure they would welcome your omnipotence in there forecasts. :roll:

I just feel these definitive landfall announcements benefit no one this far out. And I have seen you on multiple posts saying those same four words. At least give us some good science based dialog to accompany your post.

#8 Postby **joseph01** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:25 am

Scorpion wrote:Its going to Texas.

I hope so. Oops...sorry Texas.

Sanibel · #9 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:32 am

What generally makes hurricanes recurve up into the Gulf is the merge between the Bermuda High and the west to east weather flow above the continental US. The Bermuda High is the steering feature for these Caribbean storms generally. Weather comes off Africa in the Intercontinental Convergence Zone (ITCZ) flow going east to west all the way through the Caribbean. When the system reaches the end of the western edge of the Bermuda High it follows it NW and into the Gulf. How the system tracks from there depends on what features exist in the Gulf. IF a continental High sits over the northern Gulf its clockwise circulation will pick up the arriving system from there and send it west into Texas. A trough (front) pushing down from the US will tend to take Gulf systems NE along its edge. With Dennis the US was unusually lax, so the system just kept going NNW...

gkrangers · #10 Postby **gkrangers** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:35 am

This is also a Yucatan/Mexico threat. US landfall is not as certain with this storm as it was with Dennis.

HouTXmetro · #11 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:36 am

Well someone stated that NWS-DFW is forecasting a strong cool front in the Dallas area by mid next week. I'm thinking that may influence Emily. If that verifies, that possibility of a upper TX-LA threat increases. If not, maybe South Texas/ Mexico threat.

#12 Postby **Trader Ron** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:40 am

Scorpion wrote:Its going to Texas.

Don't forget to call the NHC.

#13 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:14 pm

A lot also depends on the speed that Emily travels. If she goes faster, the front wouldn't be there by the time she is. If slower, the front could direct her North or even Northeast once in the gulf. Also, the speed of the front and how far south it goes into the gulf will decide future motion.

...you've got two trains heading towards eachother....the 1st train is going x mph, the 2nd train is going y mph. They meet at point z. Where is point z at 96 hours? - and you thought algebra was something you would never use!

#14 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:24 pm

thats also the GFS...who dosn't even have emily anywhere...so, take that with a grain of salt

Hurricaneman · #15 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:27 pm

Texas is the most likely possibility

Swimdude · #16 Postby **Swimdude** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:27 pm

Scorpion wrote:Its going to Texas.

Woo... That's some kinda confidence..! Eh, we're overdue anyway. In fact, most Texans are WISHING for this to come our way. :lol:

#17 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:28 pm

I will be honest...I hope it comes our way...the WHOLE state need rain VERY badly..

dwg71 · #18 Postby **dwg71** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:31 pm

I will be honest, I dont want it anywhere near here. I dont mind paying water bills, I mind paying deductibles.

#19 Postby **seaswing** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:33 pm

Is Texas in a drought period right now? sounds like you need the rain. Unfortunately, a hurricane might be the only way you get it right now.

GalvestonDuck · #20 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 12:35 pm

Swimdude wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Its going to Texas.

Woo... That's some kinda confidence..! Eh, we're overdue anyway. In fact, most Texans are WISHING for this to come our way.

Don't forget, we have a pretty big coastline (target area). It simply increases the state's chances as long as it continues on a predominantly WNW course.

Is there something that will turn Emily north in the Gulf?

Is there something that will turn Emily north in the Gulf?

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