http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
Maybe some easterly shear?
Emily Advisorys
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Dave C
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lately
Convection really diminishing in last several hrs, Nice rotation evident but mostly mid and high level cloudiness. Would sure be great if this trend would continue and spare windward islands a strong blow
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
Maybe some easterly shear?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg
Maybe some easterly shear?
Last edited by Dave C on Tue Jul 12, 2005 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: lately
[quote="Dave C"]Convection really diminishing in last several hrs, Nice rotation evident but mostly mid and high level cloudiness. Would sure be great if this trend would continue and spare windward islands a strong blow [/quote]
From your keyboard to God's ear
[/quote]
From your keyboard to God's ear
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wx247
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The visible loop looks more impressive than it has at any point since Emily's "birth" IMHO. There may be just a hint of dry air pulling into the eastern side of the system, but not too much. This, of course, is not official. Just my thoughts.
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Novice question (i.e., don't laugh): with all of this talk about the ridge, I was just wondering what longitude the ridge extends to. In other words, if a storm such as Emily were to turn North around the ridge, about where would that be? (I have a difficult time discerning this on the maps). From the comments, I'm guessing this ridge extends into the Northeast GOM fairly significantly. Or am I really misunderstanding?
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Brent
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005
...EMILY CONTINUES RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE
GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN
36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
530 MILES... 850 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005
...EMILY CONTINUES RAPIDLY WESTWARD...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...GRENADA...THE
GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN
36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR
PART OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
530 MILES... 850 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES
... 85 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.1 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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wx247
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20 mph is okay to survive.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Brent wrote:Intermediate advisories usually don't have changes without recon or something really drastic.
From tommorow afternoon these advisorys will have more data as recon starts to fly in.
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Brent
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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON...
EMILY IS MAINTAINING DECENT BANDING AND GOOD SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT
FROM AFWA. GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE CYCLONE TOMORROW MORNING AT 12Z.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17...AND ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...KEEPING IT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
AS NOTED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE WATER IS WARM. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
MAKE A MAJOR HURRICANE OUT OF EMILY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL
LIKELY RESUME WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.
WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 11.1N 52.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 11.5N 55.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 12.1N 58.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 13.0N 61.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 14.0N 64.8W 85 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 71.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 83.0W 100 KT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005
ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON...
EMILY IS MAINTAINING DECENT BANDING AND GOOD SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT
FROM AFWA. GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE CYCLONE TOMORROW MORNING AT 12Z.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17...AND ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...KEEPING IT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
AS NOTED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE WATER IS WARM. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
MAKE A MAJOR HURRICANE OUT OF EMILY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL
LIKELY RESUME WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM. THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.
WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD
BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 11.1N 52.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 11.5N 55.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 12.1N 58.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/0600Z 13.0N 61.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1800Z 14.0N 64.8W 85 KT
72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 71.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 16/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 17/1800Z 20.0N 83.0W 100 KT
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Brent
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TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z TUE JUL 12 2005
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...BARBADOS...
GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.8W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.8W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.0W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.5N 55.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.1N 58.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.0N 64.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 52.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
2100Z TUE JUL 12 2005
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...BARBADOS...
GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT AND ST. LUCIA.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF TOBAGO.
AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE.
A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.8W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.8W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.0W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 11.5N 55.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 12.1N 58.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.0N 64.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 52.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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mf_dolphin
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cycloneye
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Hey Brent how come the discussion came out first? 
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