possible explanation for weakening/disorganization

[wxwatcher91]

ok while looking at the NHCs forecast for intensification and then the current satellite imagery, I came to the conclusion that the two dont really fit if you catch my drift.

There is a possibility that increased wind shear is beginning to affect the storm.


what's strange is that it appears with each frame that wind shear will follow Emily to the west. I dont think Emily is going to get above cat 1 level.

as for ocean temperatures, Emily will move into warmer water by tomorrow afternoon...

[jax]

Emily "IS" the sheer that the map is indicationg...

[Brent]

I think it's temporary... did the same thing yesterday. If it still looks bad late tonight, then it could be more significant.

[jrod]

I know the GFS isnt exactly reliable but it has been showing Emily becoming an open low somewhere in the Carribean. I think this is a possibity, especially if it keeps increasing it's foward speed. I remember storms in the past that should have developed more but were racing along and never aligned themselves verticly and the LLC 'outruns' the CDC. Debby was a storm like this but it also had the island of Hispanola to take a piece out of it. I would not bet on this however.

[Nimbus]

Climatologically there is usually more shear on the southern side of the Caribbean coming off of South American.
The shear forecast actually looks pretty mild all things considered.
Might delay development to cat 3 till west of 75 though.

[Thunder44]

Those shear maps you have there are unreliable. I don't think the water temps are problem. Emily fast speed isn't alowing it to develop quickly and maybe creating it's own shear.

[Derek Ortt]

right now, Emily needs to increase its speed by about 5KT to intensify as the shear is from the east. The upper winds are blowing faster than the storm is moving.

[deltadog03]

I think Emily is finally starting to gain latitude....if you look at the IR loop the center looks to be finally heading a little northward...or n of due west...convection is starting to fire...we will see

[Swimdude]

Emily "IS" the sheer that the map is indicationg...

Exactly what I was thinking as I looked at those maps.