Bob Breck once again calling the all clear (Emily)
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cajungal
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Bob Breck once again calling the all clear (Emily)
Bob Breck once again calling the all clear on Emily. She has not even reached the Gulf yet. Bob said the high will protect us in Louisiana once again.
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deltadog03
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cajungal
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That is just the way he is. He always acts like the southeast Louisiana coastline is hurricane proof or something. I don't really watch him. Was just flipping through the stations and heard it. And read about it on Channel 4 New Orleans weather forums.
Last edited by cajungal on Tue Jul 12, 2005 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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deltadog03
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wx247
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Thunder~n~Lightning wrote:Maybe he has a magic crystal ball
If he does, he needs to share with the NHC.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Rainband wrote:looks like Mexico if this pattern holds. IF. Margarita anyone??
I agree that this will likely not be a huge threat to LA or NOLA but come on, he shouldn't make such bold statements for the general public to hear when there is no assurance at all whether the current forecasts/patterns/models and such hold.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
He looked at the link above and see's its going into s. america!
It better hit the brakes NOW not to
He looked at the link above and see's its going into s. america!
It better hit the brakes NOW not to
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Hmmm. Bob's become quite the rogue forecaster lately. He used to criticize all the other channels for presenting information that ran contrary to the NHC. I've seen him basically go into on-air lectures about why that's the wrong call. But he's obviously not going to play second fiddle to anyone else. He blew it with Cindy, so he and Jeff Baskin had to stay up covering their collective ***es all night explaining that we got more than we bargained for. They did okay with that, but they never should have been downplaying the threat until it passed. I can understand not hyping it up, but come on.
Also, you're not going to get ratings by signaling the all clear anyway, so I'm not sure what his M.O. is. People gravitate to the proverbial train wreck. They want the tension and excitement (as a general rule).
Steve
Also, you're not going to get ratings by signaling the all clear anyway, so I'm not sure what his M.O. is. People gravitate to the proverbial train wreck. They want the tension and excitement (as a general rule).
Steve
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BayouVenteux
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Well, Breck's not a loner going out on some crazy limb, he's merely echoing what many of the NWS offices are seeing in the extended.
Let's take a ride...
Houston, TX AFD:
...A HIGH TRIES TO BUILD TOWARD SE TX FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER ITEM TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE EFFECTS AND TRACK OF THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM.
Lake Charles, LA AFD:
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...HOLDING DOWN OUR PRECIP CHANCES BUT
HELPING TO MAINTAIN TS EMILY ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM THE CARRIBEAN. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A WARY EYE ON THIS AS THE TRACK COULD BRING EMILY JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Shreveport, LA AFD:
WILL MENTION LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY IN CASE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD...BUT WILL KEEP DAY 7 DRY AS THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
New Orleans, LA AFD:
...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AS STRONG AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST...THIS SHOULD STEER EMILY ON MORE WESTWARD AND SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...THINGS CAN CHANGE QUITE A BIT THIS FAR OUT. IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
Mobile, AL AFD:
...LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE HANGING TOUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD...SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH WESTWARD...TO OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATING THIS...WITH EMILY TAKING A WESTERLY PATH AND IMPACTING MX/WESTERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
Birmingham, AL AFD:
GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TOWARDS THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL LIKELY SPELL HIGHER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY LOW AND MID 90S...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DRY. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE LATEST PATH
EMILY TAKES. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE MAY PREVENT A NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THREAT...BUT WE WILL WATCH AND WAIT.
Let's take a ride...
Houston, TX AFD:
...A HIGH TRIES TO BUILD TOWARD SE TX FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ANOTHER ITEM TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE EFFECTS AND TRACK OF THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM.
Lake Charles, LA AFD:
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...HOLDING DOWN OUR PRECIP CHANCES BUT
HELPING TO MAINTAIN TS EMILY ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM THE CARRIBEAN. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A WARY EYE ON THIS AS THE TRACK COULD BRING EMILY JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Shreveport, LA AFD:
WILL MENTION LOW POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES MONDAY IN CASE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD...BUT WILL KEEP DAY 7 DRY AS THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
New Orleans, LA AFD:
...IF THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AS STRONG AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST...THIS SHOULD STEER EMILY ON MORE WESTWARD AND SOUTHERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...THINGS CAN CHANGE QUITE A BIT THIS FAR OUT. IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
Mobile, AL AFD:
...LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE HANGING TOUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING WESTWARD...SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH WESTWARD...TO OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATING THIS...WITH EMILY TAKING A WESTERLY PATH AND IMPACTING MX/WESTERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK.
Birmingham, AL AFD:
GFS SHOWS A FAIRLY POTENT RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TOWARDS THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL LIKELY SPELL HIGHER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY LOW AND MID 90S...WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT NOT ALL THE WAY DRY. WE WILL BE WATCHING THE LATEST PATH
EMILY TAKES. HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE MAY PREVENT A NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST THREAT...BUT WE WILL WATCH AND WAIT.
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All of those say that its a wait and see or that we'll have to have a wary eye or stuff along those lines, NONE of them say its for sure that its not coming toward them (their respective CWAs). New Orleans actually sounds the most watchful right now.
Bob Breck sounds like he is saying with 100% certainty this will not affect the New Orleans area. That is stupidity to do that.
Bob Breck sounds like he is saying with 100% certainty this will not affect the New Orleans area. That is stupidity to do that.
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BayouVenteux
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jkt21787 wrote:All of those say that its a wait and see or that we'll have to have a wary eye or stuff along those lines, NONE of them say its for sure that its not coming toward them (their respective CWAs). New Orleans actually sounds the most watchful right now.
The New Orleans NWS office is characteristically wary when it comes to these matters, regardless of what the models may indicate. When you're located smack dab in the geographic center of the U.S. Gulf Coast, you're at or below sea level, and surrounded on all sides by water bodies, it's a healthy thing to be.
jkt21787 wrote:Bob Breck sounds like he is saying with 100% certainty this will not affect the New Orleans area. That is stupidity to do that.
True. One of these days, one of the Breckster's "all clear" declarations may come back to bite him in the arse.
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cajungal
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He got to remember his viewers do NOT just include New Orleans. We are southwest of New Orleans by 60 miles. Some storms that don't affect New Orleans affects us here in Terrebonne Parish. New Orleans did not nearly get the affects that us southwest of the city did during Andrew. And for Lili, us here in Terrebonne Parish were in far greater danger than those in New Orleans. If she would of made landfall in Morgan City, Terrebonne Parish would of had much greater damage.
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BayouVenteux wrote:The New Orleans NWS office is characteristically wary when it comes to these matters, regardless of what the models may indicate. When you're located smack dab in the geographic center of the U.S. Gulf Coast, you're at or below sea level, and surrounded on all sides by water bodies, it's a healthy thing to be.
Absolutely. You have to watch every one of these that even poses the slightest risk of entering the gulf, and this one has a relatively good chance.
Bob Breck will make a huge mistake one day I fear, and it will cost many lives. Then he can kiss his job goodbye.
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