Emily Advisorys

[dwg71]

Nobody has claimed it to be dead, it has been void of deep convection all day. One frame does not make a comeback, lets see what it looks like in 6 hours.

[Brent]

Nobody has claimed it to be dead, it has been void of deep convection all day. One frame does not make a comeback, lets see what it looks like in 6 hours.

Oh plenty of people said she was dying...

[Kludge]

Kludge wrote:

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

ha! Getting a little ahead, isn't he? Shouldn't he be "FORCASTER INVEST 26L" or something like that for now?

Frankly, I feel most certain that Forecaster Franklin is anxiously awaiting his first forecast on Franklin .

I can see it now, "I'M FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LIGHT SHEER, AND I'LL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. I'M GOING TO MOVE WNW, FOLLOWED BY SOME MAJOR WOBBLES, THEN PETER OUT IN CENTRAL AMERICA".
FORECASTER FRANKLIN, LEVEL 2

[gkrangers]

Nobody has claimed it to be dead, it has been void of deep convection all day. One frame does not make a comeback, lets see what it looks like in 6 hours.

Oh plenty of people said she was dying...

I recall a met using the terms verge and wave in the same sentence.

[jkt21787]

Nobody has claimed it to be dead, it has been void of deep convection all day. One frame does not make a comeback, lets see what it looks like in 6 hours.

Oh plenty of people said she was dying...

I recall a met using the terms verge and wave in the same sentence.

[jkt21787]

Nobody has claimed it to be dead, it has been void of deep convection all day. One frame does not make a comeback, lets see what it looks like in 6 hours.

Oh plenty of people said she was dying...

I saw at least a dozen people saying Emily was on life support, a goner, etc, you get the idea.

[Canelaw99]

Can't we just chalk it up to wishful thinking on the part of those that say she's dying

[caribepr]

Can't we just chalk it up to wishful thinking on the part of those that say she's dying

--->one of dem wishful people

[johngaltfla]

THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.

Okay all you experts; doesn't this throw alot of the models into irrelevance?

If the climatology or math that they are based on is not valid, how can we trust their long term (120 hour) predictions? I would love to know more about the impact of these early storms on the models, since we have not history of storms this intense or this early in the season.

[clfenwi]

THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL
MODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY. SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS
TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.

Okay all you experts; doesn't this throw alot of the models into irrelevance?

If the climatology or math that they are based on is not valid, how can we trust their long term (120 hour) predictions? I would love to know more about the impact of these early storms on the models, since we have not history of storms this intense or this early in the season.

If they had badly underestimated Dennis before its first strike on Cuba, I think one could make that argument, however, that wasn't the case. See

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/05070600

SHIP was indicating 125 mph at 0Z of the 10th...that proved to be dead on...

Now it did go under when Dennis hit the gulf, however, from what I gathered from the discussions at the time, that was related to its interpretation of heat content present in the gulf, not a reliance on climatology.

[Brent]

*waits impatiently*

[Brent]

Where is it?? Hellooooooo???

[Hyperstorm]

Tropical Storm Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 8a


Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on July 12, 2005



...Emily continues moving westward toward the Windward Islands...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Barbados...Grenada...The
Grenadines...St. Vincent and St. Lucia.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
island of Tobago.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Martinique.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within 24
hours. A hurricane or tropical storm watch means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are possible within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

At 8 PM AST...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located
near latitude 11.0 north... longitude 53.7 west or about 420
miles... 675 km... east-southeast of Barbados.

Emily is moving toward the west near 20 mph ...32 km/hr. A turn to
the west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the center of Emily will be reaching the Windward
Islands late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Emily has the potential to become a hurricane before
reaching the Windward Islands. An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Emily tomorrow morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles
... 85 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6
inches across the Windward Islands...with possible isolated amounts
of 12 inches over mountainous terrain.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1-3 feet above normal tide
levels...can be expected near and to the north of the path of the
center.

Repeating the 8 PM AST position...11.0 N... 53.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.

Forecaster Knabb

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00505.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00505.html

[pavelbure224]

what time is recon flying tomorrow??

[cycloneye]

8 AM they will reach the system.

[Swimdude]

It truly makes me laugh at how irritated everyone gets, including myself, when an update is 8 minutes late. Now, the cone looks the same as before... The only difference in this update is, Southern Florida is exluded.



And I believe that the NHC is awaiting recon to assure that the strength, etc is without a doubt correct. I find it VERY strange that Emily has had 50 mph winds... For the past 3 updates. This seems to be a much slower developing system than Dennis.

[jkt21787]

It truly makes me laugh at how irritated everyone gets, including myself, when an update is 8 minutes late. Now, the cone looks the same as before... The only difference in this update is, Southern Florida is exluded.

The forecast track is only updated every 6 hours, there was no update to it at 8, it won't come until 11.

If and how that cone has changed on Wunderground makes no sense. There has been no data to change.

[Swimdude]

Well that's certainly amusing, because i'm pretty sure it changed... Let me go view the map I printed earlier...

I believe it has!