The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Quote Nencweather.com:
Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable (see below link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional source of information except nencweather.com.
Verifications may be found here:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... index.html
Forecast 6:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... emily.html
Dry air's got its hold on this thing for now, so it looks like the previous but cautious forecasts of slow strengthening turned out to be worthwhile. I'll allow for some intensification, assuming that a few things shape up.
1. It's got to slow down.
2. It's got to shake off this dry air, which will have a continued effect as Emily moves west.
3. I'm still seeing indications of heavier shear than models indicated earlier. They've been having problems with this; I haven't...hopefully we can keep that going.
The shear needs to lighten up for it to intensify. (The end of the forecast allows intensification in more favorable conditions.)