Emily Advisorys

[jkt21787]

Well that's certainly amusing, because i'm pretty sure it changed... Let me go view the map I printed earlier...

I believe it has!

NHC only issues forecast advisories at 5 and 11 AM and PM. Thats the only time the forecast points, intensity, and cone should change.

Occasionally there will be a special update that changes critical info in a rapidly changing situation (we saw this with Dennis as it exploded Sat Night), but the advisories issued at 3 hour intervals, 8 and 1 AM/PM are only the public advisory with an update on the position, initial intensity, movement, etc.

[Swimdude]

All right. Thanks for the explanation.

[HURAKAN]

Luis, when do we get Emily's model track?

[Brent]

Luis, when do we get Emily's model track?

More southward shift:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The latest satellite shows that Emily is quickly becoming better oreganized. With a Cdo forming over the center...Also the LLC has tighten up greatly over the last few hours under that cdo. It has a classic banding/outflow at this time. The suprize is it is moving slight to the west-southwest. So its going to past very close to south America.

[deltadog03]

she may not make it there....although, i have a feeling the center has detached from those storms and is north of there...oh, well, recon will be there in the morn...interesting to see what NHC has to say at 10p

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The center is tighting under the deep convection. This thing is getting stronger by the minute. This is the most oreganized it has ever been. Outflow is perfect/banding...If I was in south America, I would be watching this closely.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Brent]

It's gotta stay away from South America... come on Emily.

[Scorpion]

Mexico here we come.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE JUL 12 2005

...EMILY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MOVING WESTWARD...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR TOBAGO TO A
HURRICANE WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...
TOBAGO...GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 54.7 WEST OR ABOUT
370 MILES... 590 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 450
MILES... 720 KM...EAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE REACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EMILY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...10.7 N... 54.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

Didn't see that coming... 60 mph

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
0300Z WED JUL 13 2005

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR TOBAGO TO A
HURRICANE WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...
TOBAGO...GRENADA...ST. VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 54.7W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 54.7W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 53.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 11.1N 57.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.8N 60.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.7N 63.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 66.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 54.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

FORECASTER KNABB

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has droped from 11.1 to 10.7 which is kind of west-southwest.

[Brent]

Yes... the advisory says south of due west.

[cycloneye]

[clfenwi]

...and the 00Z guidance was initialized with a course of 265 ...

[Brent]

Hope no one's headed for Cancun or Cozumel.

[Swimdude]

Yikes, my friend is in Cozumel... I believe until this weekend. Hopefully no later...



Not looking all that great. 60 mph... Surprising.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

EMILY HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 265/17. THIS MOTION IS
TAKING EMILY ON A TRACK TO THE SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THEREFORE...A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED TO
THE ENTIRE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE NOGAPS IS
THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER...AND GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE THUS FAR THIS
YEAR...AND THE CURRENT MOTION TRENDS...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE
CORRECT. HOWEVER...I WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
TRACKS...AFTER ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN LACKING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS
RESUMED...WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED BENEATH THE EASTERN
EDGE. 00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND SINCE THEN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED. GIVEN
THE TREND OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 50 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BRINGING EMILY TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS AND
MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 10.7N 54.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 11.1N 57.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 11.8N 60.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 12.7N 63.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 13.7N 66.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 15.5N 73.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 17.5N 79.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W 100 KT

[wx247]

Knabb needs to pick up the pace. He must still have fatigue from Dennis!

[Brent]

Boring discussion. Where is Stewart???