Chance of seeing Tropical Storm/Hurricane Alpha this year.

AussieMark · #21 Postby **AussieMark** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 6:28 am

this is the most active June/July period seen of all time.

and we thought 1995 June/July was busy when erin formed at end of July.

We are now 19 days ahead of 1995

Felix in 1995 arrived on August 8

so we have 27 days for Franklin to arrive

mtm4319 · #22 Postby **mtm4319** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 6:34 am

tropicalweatherwatcher wrote:this is the most active June/July period seen of all time.

and we thought 1995 June/July was busy when erin formed at end of July.

We are now 19 days ahead of 1995

Felix in 1995 arrived on August 8

so we have 27 days for Franklin to arrive

We might not have to wait 27 hours.

#23 Postby **Pebbles** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 7:22 am

I'm gonna chime in here and say I think it's possible... late to the game but didn't see this post when it was first put up.

gtalum · #24 Postby **gtalum** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:01 am

I'm a weather noob for sure, btu hear me out.

Hurricanes and tropical systems in general get their energy from the heat of the oceans, right? If so, when they pass by, the waters over which they pass generally cool down some. At some point, there will have been so many storms that there won't be enough energy left to support any more storms in the Atlantic basin. There's probably a reason why in the last 150+ years there have never been more than 21 storms in a single year. Now it's probably true that 21 is not the theoretical maximum, but history would indicate that it's probably close.

Please feel free to debunk my newbie theory.

wzrgirl1 · #25 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 8:57 am

absolutely possible

Horatio 'Cane · #26 Postby **Horatio 'Cane** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:02 am

NO chance at all---I think it will be like Dr. Gray's estimate--around 14-15 storms. Remember, seasons have pockets of activity and inactivity. Last year, 60% of the activity was within 4-5 weeks (mid August-mid September).

#27 Postby **LSU2001** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:11 am

gtalum wrote:I'm a weather noob for sure, btu hear me out.

Hurricanes and tropical systems in general get their energy from the heat of the oceans, right? If so, when they pass by, the waters over which they pass generally cool down some. At some point, there will have been so many storms that there won't be enough energy left to support any more storms in the Atlantic basin. There's probably a reason why in the last 150+ years there have never been more than 21 storms in a single year. Now it's probably true that 21 is not the theoretical maximum, but history would indicate that it's probably close.

Please feel free to debunk my newbie theory.

Not trying to debunk your theory but what about all of the additional heat that is currently striking the tropical oceans? The sun is at or near the summer max. So the oceans continue to heat. Canes do take energy out of the tropics but there is a lot of additional energy coming in right now.
Tim

Baggio · #28 Postby **Baggio** » Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:16 am

Last season was active, and it started fairly late. If 2005 parallels 2004 in activity for the rest of the season, I think an Alpha is certainly a possibility.

hurricanefreak1988 · #29 Postby **hurricanefreak1988** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:33 am

There are still doubters, lol. Interesting. Well, one way or another, a lot of crow will be eaten when fall rolls around. We shall see.

Hurricaneman · #30 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:37 am

I think well see alpha

HurricaneJoe22 · #31 Postby **HurricaneJoe22** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:43 am

I don't think we'll get that far...maybe 18 or 19 storms

Javlin · #32 Postby **Javlin** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:47 am

Don't you know or have you forgotten GLOBAL warming.We might actually see Alpha and a really cold winter next year with some more snow along the MGC.Then another warm summer to equalize everything it's the cycle.hehe

Hurricaneman · #33 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 13, 2005 1:49 am

Global warming is always a possibility, but I think its just an Earth weather cycle

DoctorHurricane2003 · #34 Postby **DoctorHurricane2003** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:17 pm

bump

25L.ALPHA

krysof · #35 Postby **krysof** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:20 pm

Horatio 'Cane wrote:NO chance at all---I think it will be like Dr. Gray's estimate--around 14-15 storms. Remember, seasons have pockets of activity and inactivity. Last year, 60% of the activity was within 4-5 weeks (mid August-mid September).

wow was this wrong

#36 Postby **cjrciadt** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:20 pm

I would feel guilty quoting you guys. :wink:

Website · #37 Postby **Brent** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:27 pm

cjrciadt wrote:I would feel guilty quoting you guys.

I started to. :lol:

jrtalon · #38 Postby **jrtalon** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:27 pm

psssh TC Alpha? not gonna happen, no way!!

WindRunner · #39 Postby **WindRunner** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:27 pm

If someone could close the poll to preserve those numbers, I think others might like to see that ratio.

vacanechaser · #40 Postby **vacanechaser** » Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:44 pm

well,, dont i just feel stupid.... lol... me being a smart a.. said zerooooo... no way... yea right!!! what a dork.. lol..

I thought we might see vince but never alpha!

La Nina looks likely next year... anyone want climb out on that limb?? lol..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Chance of seeing Tropical Storm/Hurricane Alpha this year.

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