H.Emily Advisorys

[cycloneye]

A new thread for all the monday advisorys.

[wx247]

So have you been getting some sleep Luis?

[cycloneye]

So have you been getting some sleep Luis?

I am getting sleep but not what I would want in July.

[Brent]

A new thread for all the Wednesdays advisorys.

Uh... today's Wednesday.

[cycloneye]

A new thread for all the Wednesdays advisorys.

Uh... today's Wednesday.

Oh my.

[HURAKAN]

Emily's winds are now at 50 mph, thereafter, everyone in the Windward Islands can feel the relieve now knowing that she won't become a hurricane before reaching them. But, Yucatan Peninsula, be careful and ready for anything.

[caribepr]

50 mph can be a lot for some people & structures in some places...but yes, thankfully much less than it might have been!

St. Lucia is starting to get Emilized....

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/stlucia.shtml

[cycloneye]

WTNT25 KNHC 131437
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052005
1500Z WED JUL 13 2005

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 58.1W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 58.1W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 57.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 11.5N 60.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 12.4N 64.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.3N 67.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.2N 70.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 19.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 58.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN



Very rare to see Caracas with a watch.

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

Hopefully it'll miss Cancun/Cozumel to the south so they don't have a direct hit. The place where the NHC has it coming it is pretty sparsely populated.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...EMILY CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE
OFFSHORE ISLANDS NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TOBAGO...GRENADA...
THE GRENADINES... ST. VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
TRINIDAD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA
MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT
165 MILES... 270 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 225 MILES...
360 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EMILY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.2 N... 58.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT45 KNHC 131459
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

FOR A STORM MOVING WESTWARD AT ALMOST 20 KT...THERE IS A SURPRISING
AMOUNT OF WIND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTING UP TO 56 KT AT 850 MB IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AT LEAST 45 KT
AT THE SURFACE...AND THE FLIGHT CREW HAS VISUALLY ESTIMATED WINDS
OF 55 KT. GIVEN THIS...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT
SOUNDS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. INCIDENTALLY...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA
CONFIRM THE RAIN-FLAGGED BUT ESSENTIALLY CORRECT QUIKSCAT
OBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE 09Z PASS.

EMILY CONTINUES ON A STUBBORN WESTWARD TRACK...270/17. THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE TRACK
MODELS HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET. CLEARLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE RIDGING
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAN EXPECTED. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS
BOUNDED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET ON THE NORTH...AND NOGAPS ON THE
SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF EMILY IS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE NEAR THE
CORE...AND I PRESUME THAT THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...UPPER WINDS ARE STILL
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. WHILE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...IF EMILY DOES NOT GAIN SOME LATITUDE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IT COULD LOSE A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
END UP CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/1500Z 11.2N 58.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 11.5N 60.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 14/1200Z 12.4N 64.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 15/0000Z 13.3N 67.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 15/1200Z 14.2N 70.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.0N 76.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 82.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 18/1200Z 19.5N 88.0W 95 KT...INLAND


If it does not start to gain latutud soon then poof as the last paragrafh says.

[cycloneye]

[abajan]

St. Lucia is still under a hurricane warning! They are way beyond the cone of error. What's going on here?

[Brent]

St. Lucia is still under a hurricane warning! They are way beyond the cone of error. What's going on here?

It's up to the governments of the respective countries. I have no idea.

[schmita]

Looks like a piece of Emily broke off and is heading our way.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST WED JUL 13 2005

...EMILY NOT STRENGTHENING...HURRICANE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED...

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TRINIDAD HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 2 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO...
GRENADA...THE GRENADINES...ST. VINCENT...ST. LUCIA...AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES WESTWARD TO
CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLA MARGARITA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO CARACAS...INCLUDING THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS
NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT
130 MILES... 210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND A WEST
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT EMILY WILL REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH BEFORE IT CLEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...150 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREA OF VENEZUELA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE
CENTER.

REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Stratusxpeye]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html

image is above as well of computer s. Are they starting to trend back up north now? similar but more westerly component to them then say dennis and ivan? My thinking is a straight through the carribean trek. Over lower yucatan and dyes out after crossing the channel there into mexico but Im the farthest thing from a pro.

[Swimdude]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200505_model.html

image is above as well of computer s. Are they starting to trend back up north now? similar but more westerly component to them then say dennis and ivan? My thinking is a straight through the carribean trek. Over lower yucatan and dyes out after crossing the channel there into mexico but Im the farthest thing from a pro.

VERY interesting UKMET model. Unlikely, yes, but interesting.

[Brent]

Alright... I'm bored with Emily.