12z Models on Emily: 45kts and 1003mb

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Thunder44
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12z Models on Emily: 45kts and 1003mb

#1 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:27 am

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050713 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050713 1200 050714 0000 050714 1200 050715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 57.4W 11.8N 60.2W 12.6N 63.0W 13.7N 65.9W
BAMM 11.2N 57.4W 11.6N 60.6W 12.0N 63.7W 12.9N 66.8W
A98E 11.2N 57.4W 11.6N 61.0W 12.3N 64.2W 13.1N 67.2W
LBAR 11.2N 57.4W 11.8N 60.6W 12.7N 64.0W 13.5N 67.5W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 57KTS 67KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 57KTS 67KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050715 1200 050716 1200 050717 1200 050718 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 68.7W 16.9N 74.5W 18.4N 80.3W 19.2N 85.5W
BAMM 13.9N 69.7W 16.0N 75.7W 17.8N 82.3W 19.4N 88.3W
A98E 13.9N 69.8W 15.9N 75.2W 17.8N 80.4W 19.2N 85.7W
LBAR 14.5N 71.2W 16.7N 77.7W 18.6N 83.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 76KTS 90KTS 98KTS 99KTS
DSHP 76KTS 90KTS 98KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 57.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 53.7W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 50.2W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 50NM
Last edited by Thunder44 on Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:40 am

TROPICAL STORM EMILY (AL052005) ON 20050713 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050713 1200 050714 0000 050714 1200 050715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 57.4W 11.8N 60.2W 12.6N 63.0W 13.7N 65.9W
BAMM 11.2N 57.4W 11.6N 60.6W 12.0N 63.7W 12.9N 66.8W
A98E 11.2N 57.4W 11.6N 61.0W 12.3N 64.2W 13.1N 67.2W
LBAR 11.2N 57.4W 11.8N 60.7W 12.6N 64.0W 13.5N 67.5W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 62KTS 72KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 62KTS 72KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050715 1200 050716 1200 050717 1200 050718 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 68.8W 16.9N 74.6W 18.4N 80.4W 19.3N 85.7W
BAMM 13.9N 69.7W 15.8N 75.9W 17.6N 82.5W 19.2N 88.4W
A98E 13.9N 69.8W 15.9N 75.2W 17.8N 80.4W 19.2N 85.7W
LBAR 14.5N 71.2W 16.9N 77.6W 18.7N 83.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 81KTS 95KTS 102KTS 102KTS
DSHP 81KTS 95KTS 102KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 57.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 53.7W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 50.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D

Thunder44 they issued another text now up at 45kts but the rest is the same.
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#3 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 7:46 am

Thanks, Luis. Perhaps they are finding stronger winds now.
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#4 Postby rsdoug1981 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:10 am

What is going on with the UKMET this year...especially right now?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation
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#5 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:15 am

rsdoug1981 wrote:What is going on with the UKMET this year...especially right now?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation


Oh dear, I guess Joe B. is now going to claim that N.O will be under 20 feet of water next week. :jk:
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#6 Postby dhweather » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:15 am

rsdoug1981 wrote:What is going on with the UKMET this year...especially right now?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation


This is clearly psychological warfare by the British against the United States. They are still mad about losing the 1814 battle of New Orleans, so they are using fear tactics to try and scare New Orleans residents.

Dennis, now Emily.


CONSPIRACY!!!!!

:lol:
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gkrangers

#7 Postby gkrangers » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:16 am

:lol:

Lost its shirt in the NO casinos in the off season...it wants revenge.
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#8 Postby rsdoug1981 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:16 am

jschlitz wrote:
rsdoug1981 wrote:What is going on with the UKMET this year...especially right now?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation


Oh dear, I guess Joe B. is now going to claim that N.O will be under 20 feet of water next week. :jk:


Yeah, it looks like its seriously underestimating the strength of the Bermuda High. It's showing almost the exact same track it showed for Dennis.
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#9 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:19 am

dhweather wrote:
rsdoug1981 wrote:What is going on with the UKMET this year...especially right now?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation


This is clearly psychological warfare by the British against the United States. They are still mad about losing the 1814 battle of New Orleans, so they are using fear tactics to try and scare New Orleans residents.

Dennis, now Emily.

Not good news for N.O. when ANY model points a storm in their direction. I hope this is not a model trend.


CONSPIRACY!!!!!

:lol:
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#10 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:20 am

dhweather wrote:
rsdoug1981 wrote:What is going on with the UKMET this year...especially right now?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation


This is clearly psychological warfare by the British against the United States. They are still mad about losing the 1814 battle of New Orleans, so they are using fear tactics to try and scare New Orleans residents.

Dennis, now Emily.

Not good news for N.O. when ANY model points a storm in their direction. I hope this is not a model trend.


CONSPIRACY!!!!!

:lol:
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#11 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:20 am

rsdoug1981 wrote:What is going on with the UKMET this year...especially right now?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation


Not good news for N.O. when ANY model points a storm in their direction. I hope this is not a model trend.
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#12 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:22 am

You know, I still think Emily has a shot at becoming a hurricane. However, I'm really beginning to think that she's bipolar....can't make up her mind how strong she wants to be. At night we see her flare up (manic), then during the day, she dies off (depressive). If she keeps that up, I can't believe she'll reach hurricane intensity.

And I mean no offense to those who are bipolar by that post.

-Andrew92
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Oh! Oh!

#13 Postby coco » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:23 am

Aaron Broussard is going to start evacuating Jefferson Parish.
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Re: Oh! Oh!

#14 Postby rsdoug1981 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:23 am

coco wrote:Aaron Broussard is going to start evacuating Jefferson Parish.


That would not surprise me... :lol:
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#15 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:26 am

So is this a shift back north from the previous run of the Ukmet?
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#16 Postby dwg71 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:28 am

The UKMET is like the WOPR in "War Games", it has a mind of its own and is playing a game with itself.

Its off kilter this year so far.
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#17 Postby margaritabeach » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:29 am

Andrew92 wrote:You know, I still think Emily has a shot at becoming a hurricane. However, I'm really beginning to think that she's bipolar....can't make up her mind how strong she wants to be. At night we see her flare up (manic), then during the day, she dies off (depressive). If she keeps that up, I can't believe she'll reach hurricane intensity.

And I mean no offense to those who are bipolar by that post.

-Andrew92


not sure about bipolar but Emily is female....
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#18 Postby Andrew92 » Wed Jul 13, 2005 11:35 am

margaritabeach wrote:
Andrew92 wrote:You know, I still think Emily has a shot at becoming a hurricane. However, I'm really beginning to think that she's bipolar....can't make up her mind how strong she wants to be. At night we see her flare up (manic), then during the day, she dies off (depressive). If she keeps that up, I can't believe she'll reach hurricane intensity.

And I mean no offense to those who are bipolar by that post.

-Andrew92


not sure about bipolar but Emily is female....


Oh, duh, of course! :lol:

*taking off as fast as I can to avoid any women!*

-Andrew92
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#19 Postby N2Storms » Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:37 pm

UKMET is probably responding to the fact that once Dennis finally pulls off he will cause a weakness in the high pressure that is currently sitting along the east coast...probably over exaggerates the weakness but a number of AFD that I've read this morning allude to the fact that the high may indeed lose some of it's integrity and allow Emily to gain latitude...I still wouldn't be surprised to see Emily make a landfall along the Texas coast over to say Lake Charles, La....IMO
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#20 Postby x-y-no » Wed Jul 13, 2005 2:56 pm

Wow ... and just the other day I was complementing the UKMET on its consistency. :roll:
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