My Space Shuttle Launch Forecast:)

[Earth_Is_Changing_Fast]

July 13, 2005
Cape Canaveral Weather Data Dicussion

An interesting setup for the cape it seems on launch time. A moist atmosphete will extend all the way up to over 500MB. This is showing that the conditions will be favorable for Thunderstorm development in the area, especially during the heating of the day, with surface temps in the 80's. Thunderstorms should begin to fire mid-morning around the cape as the mix comes in. The question is, what will be around at Launch. It looks like Thunderstorms will be around the area. Im giving a 50% chance to launch this thing, so not good really. Latest CAPE analysis shows a very weak CAPE. maybe only approaching 500 to 750 j/kg. Which is not much at all, but enough for a thunderstorm or 2. My current thinking is that more Thunderstorm development will form in the higher temps, and richer CAPE layer. That area is to the WNW of the CAPE, about 50 to 75 miles to the NW of Orlando, Florida. The winds at the 500MB level will be moving to the ESE, so thats which way we expect the storms to go once they develop. The only concern I see for a major thunderstorm to come through the cape would be coming in from the NW, because the Richer CAPE, and Temperatures will aid tstorm development, and force it in the direction of the Launch Pad. Looking really at the latest data, it looks like the upper wind will be too weak to get those Thunderstorms traveling that far.

Launch forecast 50%

Concerns, Thunderstorms in the area, and Thick Blanket of High Clouds.

[NC George]

Launch chance 0% - they broke it.