12Z Global model roundup

[clfenwi]

Starting with NOGAPS... From 0715 00Z on, forecast track is slightly right of previous one... mid-Yucatan Peninsula landfall at 120 hours, slightly northeast of point of landfall in previous runs...has Emily exiting between 132 and 144 hours on a northwest track...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2005071312

Moving right to the GFS... it is finally starting to like Emily, and with the exception of the 012h frame is actually keeping closed isobars around her. Track is to right of previous tracks and has Emily passing just southwest of Jamaica betwen 72 and 84 hours. It brings forward motion to a crawl at around 96 hours and creeeps Emily over the Northern Yucatan between 120 and 138 hours... and deepen her rather sharply after the crossover is complete...landfall in northern Mexico between 192 and 204 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

UKMET...huge shift to the right...over western Haiti at 54 hours and western Cuba between 84 and 96 hours... SE LA at 144 hours...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

The right outlier of the past two runs...Canadian... loses the closed low south-east of Dominican Republic between 36 and 48 hours...and doesn't find it ...

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... 12_036.jpg

[jasons2k]

Thanks!! For me this just confirms we won't really have an idea of if/where a US landfall may/may not be until it at least clears Jamaica.

[clfenwi]

Since it didn't get into the 00Z roundup, I'll mention last night's ECMWF... looked to be a similar track to the previous run but faster (even when you account for the fact that you aren't getting an apple-apple comparision due to the 24 hour increments)... landfall in central Yucatan between 120 and 144 hours...unlike yesterday's 12Z run, at no point are closed isobars drawn around the low...

http://tinyurl.com/asaue

I'll post a summary of the 12Z European run when it shows up.... if you notices it is up and I haven't added it to this thread then feel free to include it yourself...

[Duffy]

hm looks like one turns it into a Monster and another has it dying out after Hispanola
we'll have to wait and see

[clfenwi]

12Z ECMWF is slightly to the right of previous runs wrt to point of landfall...Yucatan Peninsula at approximately 20 degrees North... 144 hour frame has Emily running due west in the Bay of Campeche...

[Agua]

UKMET...huge shift to the right...over western Haiti at 54 hours and western Cuba between 84 and 96 hours... SE LA at 144 hours...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

It must be stuck in a flashback from it's Dennis tracks.

[Steve]

According to Tazmanian on flhurricane, the Superensemble is in run mode:

Right, FSU in run mode now shows a jump N from current 11.2 to about 14N in 24 hours.

That would surprise me a little unless the center simply reorganized north.

Steve

[texasheat]

what do you mean

[clfenwi]

According to Tazmanian on flhurricane, the Superensemble is in run mode:

Right, FSU in run mode now shows a jump N from current 11.2 to about 14N in 24 hours.

That would surprise me a little unless the center simply reorganized north.

Steve

Sure he is not looking at the totally unrelated MM5? (It is in the middle of its 12Z run and has been showing a huge jump in its runs)

[Steve]

I didn't ask him and don't know how reliable he is of a poster. There are 3 pro mets (Ed Dunham, Clark _____ and Jason Kelly) on that site. As far as I know, Taz ain't one of 'em. So he well may be referencing the FSU's MM5 instead (occasionally we get an FSUSE update there, but I don't know who it is that posts it since I primarily migrated over to storm 2 k).

Steve