Houstonians "It will not come here" attitude

[BLHutch]

Not everyone knows Galveston is an island, although many know the Glen Campbell song and assume it must be near the water.

That's one of my favorite songs! I've always found the attitudes of the area to be rather amusing, if not alarming. Growing up in Port Arthur, I had quite a few relatives who lived on the other side of the Sabine River in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. They still talk about Audrey in '57 like it happened yesterday. To many Houstonians, Alicia is a distant memory.

There is a video done by the Harris County Emergency Operations people that shows the amount of damage that a large storm could do to the area. I'll post it if anyone is interested. I found it to be very informative.

Certainly the odds of a direct hit by a major storm are long, but, from a strictly historical standpoint, it has happened before, more than once, and it will happen again. It might be fifty years from now, but it might also be next week. It is not something that I worry about every day, but it is something that I know can happen.

Brady

[jasons2k]

jschlitz, sounds pretty accurate to me....

It is also worth noting how much new construction has been going on along 45 south between the Beltway and the causeway....I work in residential development and I can tell you that there are quite a few sizable projects slated to open in League City and Texas City within the next year or so....

If these new developments do well (and I imagine they will, given the low price points planned for the Texas City area), that will potentially add a few additional thousand people to the already overburdened evacuation routes.

I have read about the evacuation plan, but didn't realize that they didn't intend to open all lanes of 45 to northbound traffic....if they don't, I don't see any way everyone could get out unless people seriously started evacuating 3+ days in advance - something I just don't people around here doing. And 146 doesn't seem like a very logical evac route....it certainly isn't designed to handle that kind of traffic, and its proximity to the water makes me wonder how long it would even be passable if a major cane was bearing down on us...

As far as the newbie's awareness of the danger of tropical systems...I moved here in 2000 and didn't think once about even the remote possibility of a tropical system until Allison flooded my area....and I have an interest in the weather, so I can only imagine how little some of these people know, or how little they care.

I think a lot of people underestimate the potential destruction and loss of life in the Houston/Galveston area if a strong storm hit in the right place ... I think it could very well be the second worst "doomsday scenario" (after New Orleans, of course).

Here is a good article that talks about 146, and also the general apathy:

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mp ... an/3046590

I think Tampa - St. Pete may be ahead of Houston-Galveston in terms of doomsday scenarios. The geography of the bay there would dump a tremendous storm surge right on downtown Tampa. And you still have downtown St. Pete, even downtown Bradenton right on the water as well.

[HouTXmetro]

Not everyone knows Galveston is an island, although many know the Glen Campbell song and assume it must be near the water.

That's one of my favorite songs! I've always found the attitudes of the area to be rather amusing, if not alarming. Growing up in Port Arthur, I had quite a few relatives who lived on the other side of the Sabine River in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. They still talk about Audrey in '57 like it happened yesterday. To many Houstonians, Alicia is a distant memory.

There is a video done by the Harris County Emergency Operations people that shows the amount of damage that a large storm could do to the area. I'll post it if anyone is interested. I found it to be very informative.

Certainly the odds of a direct hit by a major storm are long, but, from a strictly historical standpoint, it has happened before, more than once, and it will happen again. It might be fifty years from now, but it might also be next week. It is not something that I worry about every day, but it is something that I know can happen.

Brady

Can you please post the video?

[BLHutch]

Sure. Here you go:

http://www.hcoem.org/videos.htm

There are actually three videos. The first one "Catagory Five" is an actual assessment of potential damage. The second one "Serpent's Coil" is a fictional account of a major hurricane strike. I haven't seen the third one.

Brady

[HouTXmetro]

Sure. Here you go:

http://www.hcoem.org/videos.htm

There are actually three videos. The first one "Catagory Five" is an actual assessment of potential damage. The second one "Serpent's Coil" is a fictional account of a major hurricane strike. I haven't seen the third one.

Brady

Thanks

[stormie_skies]

I know I've seen one of those...I believe it was the second one....rather disturbing...

I'll have to watch the others later.

[HouTXmetro]

*Grabs popcorn

Watching now

[GalvestonDuck]

I'm going to try to watch in a few minutes also. I've seen "Serpent's Coil" before, but not the others. Thanks, Brady!

[jasons2k]

Hey Houstonians,

The whole inner loop is getting SLAMMED

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... khgx.shtml

[/img]

[HouTXmetro]

Hey Houstonians,

The whole inner loop is getting SLAMMED

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... khgx.shtml

[/img]

I have NEVER seen the entire inner loop covered in orange/red all at once. Might be some serious street flooding going on.

[Canebo]

Although I agree with those that think it may never rain here again, I am aware of the tropical threat. I loved the line about cooking the steaks on the grill without lighting it. That is so true. We haven't had rain here in 8 weeks, other than a light shower last week.
I worked all night during Alicia in 83' and remember her all too well. If I remember right, she was not supposed to make a direct hit here like she did. The tropics are full of surprises and you have to be vigilant and cautious,or you may get caught short.

On a side note: I was trying to find a link that may show how many CV storms have made it all the way across and struck here. I know the 1900 and 1915 storms did, but which others?

[GalvestonDuck]

Hey Houstonians,

The whole inner loop is getting SLAMMED

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS ... khgx.shtml

[/img]

Yup, I posted the flood advisory...and I still don't believe it.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=67882

[BLHutch]

On a side note: I was trying to find a link that may show how many CV storms have made it all the way across and struck here. I know the 1900 and 1915 storms did, but which others?[/color]

This might help as far as the more recent storms (ie: post 1900)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/research/txhur.htm

I have a hunch that some of the major storms of the 19th Century (1874, 1876) were also CV storms, but that is just a guess on my part. Anyway, hope that helps.

Brady

[Canebo]

Thanks Brady, that link will allow me to find the info on those storms that I was looking for.

PS: We're getting our daily thunder here in League City, but no rain. Congrats to those that are. If anyone has any pictures of the rain, feel free to post them. I have just about forgotten what it looks like falling from the sky.

Mark

[KatDaddy]

Almost rained again at South Shore this afternoon. Now if I can just get more rain on the west side of League City in the Rustic Oaks/Magnolia Creeks area I would be happy.

[caribepr]

Check out the POST -Hugo building on the barrier islands of NC...Growing up in Fla we saw it happen over and over again and it just keeps on happening. Even when I lived in Orlando, there was this very posh development built in what old timers there KNEW was once a low lying swamp! First bad storm and here were million plus dollar homes sinking...money doesn't equal common sense, which would be check out the flood zones, the storm history, etc before plunking your money and maybe your lives, down.
A great read, though fiction (IMHO based on fact, the guy knew his home place) John McDonald's book Condiminium told it pretty well.

[cajungal]

People are pretty convinced down here that southeast Louisiana will never see another hurricane. Yeah, it got Cindy. But, I am talking about a hurricane like Dennis or Ivan. Because most of us were not born for Betsy and some have never even been through a cane. And I don't understand how some people can "wishcast" for a hurricane to come their way. Because no matter how much you wish for a hurricane to come your way, does not mean it will happen. Believe me, I used to do the same thing when I was younger because I wanted to see what a hurricane is like. And got disappointed when it would always turn the other way. But, I grew up. And seeing all the destruction that hurricanes left behind in other places, I would not want it to happen to myself or anyone else.

[Baggio]

I think Tampa - St. Pete may be ahead of Houston-Galveston in terms of doomsday scenarios. The geography of the bay there would dump a tremendous storm surge right on downtown Tampa. And you still have downtown St. Pete, even downtown Bradenton right on the water as well.

It isn't just that the downtown areas are vulnerable; Pinellas county, where St. Pete is, is the densest county in FL, and it's a low lying peninsula. Should a Cat 4 or 5 hit the area, Pinellas county could potentially turn into 2 islands during the storm. Likewise, much of Tampa sits on a peninsula that juts out into Tampa Bay. It too would be devestated by a strong hurricane.

As for overall doomday scenarios, in terms of total economic losses from a "extreme"(Cat 5?) hurricane, the list goes Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, NYC, Tampa-St. Pete, Houston-Galveston, and then New Orleans. Obviously, this list just takes economic losses from a hurricane. I'd imagine that a direct Cat 5 hit on New Orleans is probably FEMA's worst nightmare.

http://info.insure.com/home/disaster/wo ... icane.html

[jasons2k]

I think Tampa - St. Pete may be ahead of Houston-Galveston in terms of doomsday scenarios. The geography of the bay there would dump a tremendous storm surge right on downtown Tampa. And you still have downtown St. Pete, even downtown Bradenton right on the water as well.

It isn't just that the downtown areas are vulnerable; Pinellas county, where St. Pete is, is the densest county in FL, and it's a low lying peninsula. Should a Cat 4 or 5 hit the area, Pinellas county could potentially turn into 2 islands during the storm. Likewise, much of Tampa sits on a peninsula that juts out into Tampa Bay. It too would be devestated by a strong hurricane.

As for overall doomday scenarios, in terms of total economic losses from a "extreme"(Cat 5?) hurricane, the list goes Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, NYC, Tampa-St. Pete, Houston-Galveston, and then New Orleans. Obviously, this list just takes economic losses from a hurricane. I'd imagine that a direct Cat 5 hit on New Orleans is probably FEMA's worst nightmare.

http://info.insure.com/home/disaster/wo ... icane.html

Forgot all about NYC...tho it would be quite a feat to get a Cat. 5 coming in at the right angle towards NYC...but I suppose anything is possible, especially with 'canes.

Yes, there is a lot more than just the downtowns, I was just giving a 1 sentence rundown. But there is so much down there in the surge zone. Even TIA (airport) is also right on the water. So is MacDill AFB (which houses the US Central Command).

The only saving grace for Pinellas is that a piece of the FL ridge runs through the middle, so some spots are actually quite high up. But for the most part it'll be a swamp.